Every society has pursued some type of Holy Grail in their generation — The Fountain of Youth, El Dorado: the city of gold and the perfect NCAA Tournament Bracket. The odds are so small that not even mathematicians can agree on the right way to calculate the odds. For simplicity, let’s just assume that is on the low range of one in 9.2 quintillion. It has never happened and Warren Buffet even promised a billion dollars to the person who could do it in 2014. So there is no way anyone will ever do it.
Except I have it. No, for real, I have it this year. I have carefully crafted a formula of statistics, historical perspective, dumb-luck and Eeny Meenie Miney Mo to find the winning combination of 63 games. Because I am such a nice guy, I have decided to share it with you.
Alright, thanks for reading! Have fun at the Big Dance!
Wait, you want more? Like an explanation for some of them? Geez, y’all are demanding…
South
The whole region should be chalk the whole way around. The teams are very strong and the one seed, Kansas, is the one of the strongest top teams in a while, and I doubt that they will lose before the final tour. I like to pick the nine seeds over the eight so I went with UConn, as I did with every region. The big upset possibility in the region is the six seed Arizona. Both Wichita State and Vanderbilt have tournament success and a present a formidable challenge for an 11 seed.
Vanderbilt has a strong defense and a very slow offense, which gives them a good matchup against Arizona and Wichita State completed an undefeated regular season just two years ago before losing to Kentucky in the second round. If you want to be a contrarian, Villanova also could be upset. They have a history of flaming out early in the tournament They just lost to Seton Hall in the Big East Championship tournament and they do not have the same momentum that they did in January. Despite all of this, I think they will do well and lose admirably to Kansas in the Elite Eight.
West
Bear with me. The selection committee put three Big 12 teams in the same division as Texas A&M and you expect me to pass up a chance to let the Aggies beat all of them, especially since we could play the Teasips in the second round? No, that is not happening. I think that the whole bracket is with me on this. My biggest upset though has nothing to do with the Aggies and their Big 12 reckoning. Duke losing to UNC Wilmington is my 13/4 upset. While this upset has not happened in five years, a majority of these games are within five points and this could be the year a 4 seed loses to a 13 seed.
This is a trap game for Duke. They are without Amile Jefferson, a key component of the team, they lost to Notre Dame early in the ACC Championship tournament, and they have been known to choke early or go deep in the tournament. They can lose early and set you up early to take the lead in your bracket pool or win and bust your bracket before it gets rolling. Another warning about the West is that the 1 seed, Oregon, is a relatively weak seed. They have not played many tough match-ups and only beat Baylor, the five seed in their region, by seven. While a majority of this region plays out to set up the Aggies to defeat the Big 12, the final game to discuss is VCU against Oregon State and I give the edge to VCU because they have a history of success in the tournament. The important prediction though is the Aggies will be traveling to Houston for the Final Four.
East
Confession time. I grew up a Duke Blue Devil fan. I am sorry. So any chance to mess with UNC is one I will take. So naturally I have the Tar Heels losing in their first competitive game. Kentucky is playing really well and they will give UNC a run for their money. I do not see Xavier losing early, especially not since they run an interesting defense- the 1-3-1 zone.
This defense will throw off those that do not play against it regularly. Notre Dame is the sleeper in this region. After beating Duke, they lost to UNC, however, they will find their mojo and hit the tournament running. In the end, the Wildcats from Kentucky have too much experience and a chip on their shoulder from a seeding that they think is too low. They will come out of this bracket as the champions.
This region has the strongest two seed, by a lot. While Oklahoma boasts the Player of the Year, the Spartans are a team that many thought could be a one seed before the rankings were announced. The team they were supposed to be ahead of was their one seed, Virginia. This Elite Eight matchup is one that should be an instant classic.
In the other parts of the bracket, it should be close to chalk the whole way around. Seton Hall squeaked into the tournament at the last minute by beating Villanova and that is the easiest upset to pick for even the faint of heart. Iowa State and Purdue are fairly even matched and sometimes you just have to pick the lower seed because, well, it’s March. But back to the UVA versus Michigan State game, Tom Izzo has the most Final Four appearances of any head coach since he started in 1995. Betting against him is tough so I went with MSU.
Final Four
Texas A&M plays Kansas and Michigan State plays Kentucky on Apr. 2 for the first games of the Final Four. Texas A&M plays their fourth Big 12 team and, of course, the Aggies win. While Kansas is arguably the best team in the country, my team’s date with destiny is unshakable. Kentucky against Michigan State will be a great game. Kentucky’s coach, John Calipari, lost the best chance that there might have ever been at a perfect season with some of the most talented freshmen last year. He will want to make it past this semifinal hump. If you noticed, that means A&M and Kentucky will be playing for the third time this year. Since the Aggies are not one to break tradition and Kentucky also takes its history seriously, this game will be going to overtime. To complete this perfect bracket, the Aggies will win.
So I may have lied about the complex formula. This bracket is almost as much wishful thinking as it is actually bracketology. But seeing the Aggies beat over half the Big 12 teams in the tournament and beating Kentucky again this season would be a nice cherry on top of a year where the Aggies transformed from a football school into a basketball one. This may not be the way the tournament actually works out, but it is perfect for me.
