With baseball season starting, every team has a clean slate. Everyone is still in the running to win their division and the World Series (some more than others). Teams have strong cases being made for them, and I’m here to make the case for the Yankees. Experts have predicted that the Yankees will finish 4th in the AL East. I hate to break it to you experts, but you’re wrong.
First, I will admit that the Yankees are a team plagued with “what ifs” but so is every team. You never know how a season will go or if a player will perform the same way they did last season…well, maybe unless that player is named Mike Trout. Besides the “what ifs” though, the Yankees are certainly a team that can win the AL East if all the pieces can fall into place.
Also, all statistics in this article come from the Yankees website.
Let’s start with the big reason why the Yankees can win the AL East: their bullpen. The Yankees bullpen is stacked with season with 3 of the top 5 relievers in their pen (according to CBS sports). These relievers are Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances (who rank 2, 3, and 4 respectively). Each pitcher recorded over 100Ks last season and could repeat the task again. Betances and Miller each received voted for the Cy Young award last season, which is a hard thing for a reliever to do.
Betances posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP last season with 131 Ks and had 135 five his rookie season in 2014. Betances 135 strikeouts in 2014 broke the Yankees record for most strikeouts in a season by a reliever. The previous leader? Marino Rivera. If Betances can stay healthy, he can easily replicate the past two seasons that he has had.
Andrew Miller, despite missing May and most of June, recorded 36 saves in 38 opportunities and was able to win the Mariano Rivera award which goes to the best reliever in the AL. Miller recorded a 2.04 era will be stepping down as the close as that honor has been given to Chapman.
Chapman was acquired by the Yankees who traded 4 prospects to the Reds in order to get Chapman. The Yankees didn’t have to trade away any of their big name prospects as Chapman had been accused of domestic violence against his girlfriend. Chapman’s fastball has reached as high as 105mph and averaged 100mph last season. He had 116 strikeouts last season. Joe Girardi only plans to pitch two heads of his three-headed monster in a game so one is always rested. And though Chapman has been suspended and cannot pitch until May 9th, Miller Betances and the rest of the Yankees pen can get the team through the season.
The bullpen itself had a 3.70 ERA and looks to improve this season. Chasen Shreve, one of the Yankees big relievers last season, had a 3.09 era and 64 strikeouts. Newcomer Luis Cessa has had an amazing spring recording a 2.70 ERA after coming to the Yankees in a trade that sent Justin Wilson to the Tigers. Also, in the pen, you have spot starter/ long reliever Brian Mitchell who has recorded a .61 ERA in spring training. Mitchell will not be in the pen, as he suffered a broken toe after covering 1st base. He could be out for as little as 3 months. Replacing Miller will be Johnny Barbato who has a 1.74 ERA this spring. Joining the pen will be starter Ivan Nova who has lost the 5th starter spot to CC Sabathia. Nova is the weakest link for the pen as he is coming off a 2015 season with a 5.07 ERA and a spring training ERA of 5.50. In the minors, you have the likes of Nick Goody, Nick Rumbelow, Brandon Pinder, Jose Pazos, Jacob Lindgren, and Diego Monero who all say big league action last season and who all could be rotated through the pen again, just like last season. The bullpen is the major key for the Yankees coming into the season as they only realistically need to get 5-6 ½ innings out of their starters and the can turn it over to the pen, especially if they have a lead.
Staying on the topic of pitching, let’s talk about the biggest “what if” for the Yankees: The rotation. The rotation might have been plagued with injuries last year, but if they can stay healthy they can have one of the best in the majors. Opening Day starter Masahiro Tanaka underwent right elbow surgery at the end of 2015. Though many people believe that Tanaka needs to have Tommy John, he still has a while to worry about it. He posted a 3.51 ERA and after having two seasons in the major leagues, which were both were injury plagued. He highly believes that he can be the pitcher he was in Japan. If he can replicate that he can easily be one of the staff’s aces.
Michael Pineda is coming off a not so great 2015. Though if he can produce like he has in spring (1.00 ERA) he could be a sleeper pick for the CY Young. Pineda was having a great 2015 until the Yankees went on a 6 man rotation, which affected Pineda as he doesn’t pitch well under extra rest. Pineda coming back healthy and what looks like will be 5 man rotation all season, can be another ace of the staff and could give the Yankees 200 innings, which would greatly help the bullpen.
Luis Severino broke out last season in August. At the age of 21 last season, the youngest person on the Yankees 40 man roster, he had a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts. If he can perform the same way or better in 2016 he can be the true ace of the rotation. He currently has no innings limit on him and like Tanaka and Pineda, he could also give the Yankees a 200 innings season. During last year’s trade season he was considered an “untouchable prospect” by Brian Cashman, and he has certainly lived up to that.
Nathan Eovaldi struggled when he first came to the Yankees, but after the all-star break, he settled in lowered his 5.76 ERA in June down to 3.70 in July and August. He also generated the most run support of the Yankee pitchers. Eovaldi doesn’t seem he will have an innings limit this year and he could give the Yankees 200 innings or close to it. Eovaldi also hits 100mph quite often with his fastball which gives him an edge against hitters. Next, you have CC Sabathia. Coming off a horrible 2015 season (5.52 ERA) thanks to knee problems and his hidden problem with alcoholism. However after CC started wearing a knee brace, his ERA in his final five starts was 2.17, much more like the CC Yankees fans loved. Also after tackling his alcoholism in rehab this offseason. The combination of using the brace and having a cleared mind, CC looks like he could be a better pitcher than he was last season.
The lineup is the other big “what if” but this has to deal with consistency. Starting at the top of the lineup, you have Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Both outfielders were having great 2015 seasons, at different times. Both were plagued with injury but are looking to bounce back this season. If they can both stay healthy and consistent they look to be a speedy one-two punch, which comes in handy with the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran behind them.
Alex Rodriguez, despite my dislike of his recent announcement, is a great player. If he can produce like he did last season (33 HRS, 86 RBIs, and .250 AVG) he can be a key to the Yankees success. Tex was having an MVP-like season before getting hurt last year. He looked healthy in spring training and if he can produce the way he did before getting injured he can help this Yankee team. He will hit his 400 home run this season (394 in his career) and with being a switch hitter, his bat adds more depth to a very lefty-heavy Yankee offense. Also, as a left-handed first baseman, his defensive skills save many errors for his fellow teammates. Carlos Beltran, though his defense isn’t the best, is still a great hitter. He gets hot for a stretch but then fizzles out. His main focus is staying consist, which if he does, adds another great bat. He’s also a switch-hitter and having him bat after Tex makes teams keep pitchers in when they really shouldn’t become late in the game.
Brian McCann, if he stays healthy, is easily an MVP for the Yankees. He not only is able to get his pitchers through rough outings but had a 35% success rate when throwing out base runners last year and only allowed 50 stolen bases. As a lefty in Yankee stadium, he takes advantage of the short right porch with most of his 26 homers last season being at Yankee Stadium. He is now in the third year of his contract and looks to continue to improve as the Yankees most consistent hitter.
Next, you have Chase Headley. He’s probably the weakest link of the Yankees defense and offense. He batted .259 last season with 62 RBIs. Headley also committed a career-high 23 errors. He would have had more but luckily he was throwing the ball to Tex. Headley need to improve both defensively and offensively if he does he’ll play a larger role with the Yankees.
Next, you have what could be one of best shortstop-second baseman combinations in the MLB this year (number one still goes to Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve though). At the age of 26, Didi Gregorius and new Yankee Starlin Castro can make a great double-play combination this year. They’ve spent a lot of time together this season and are looking to make some amazing plays. Both struggled last season. Didi struggled the first month and a half (he was filling in for Derek Jeter after all). After he got the hang of things though he started to improve and became a vital aspect of the Yankees offense and defense. Castro was struggling as the shortstop of the Cubs but when Joe Maddon switched him to second, Castro turned his season around and was able to help get the Cubs to the playoffs. They make for a deadly combination at the end of the lineup, both hitting above .250 (Didi at .262 and Castro at .409). If this duo can replicate their spring, Yankee fans have something to look forward to in the middle infield.
On the bench, you have utility player Dustin Ackley who came in clutch for the Yankees last season in some situations. Aaron Hick, who the Yankees got from the twins in exchange for John Ryan Murphy. A switch-hitter, Hicks adds another righty to a predominant lefty lineup and if his bat from spring training carries over (.298) he will be a nice replacement for Ellsbury, Gardner, or Beltran if they need a day off. Austin Romine has earned the backup catcher spot, which he lost to Murphy last year. He has improved at the plate and behind it and the Yankees hope his spring (.306) will carry over to the regular season as well and will prove he was the right choice for McCann’s backup.
If all these things fall into place, the Yankees can very well be a great team that can win the AL East. They are the New York Yankees. They are the most successful MLB team in postseason history. Sure the team might be older, but our players are experienced. They know how to succeed even when things look like they are going to fall apart. This team is already having hardships out of spring training with Mitchell being hurt and Miller possibly going on the DL. This team suffered a great number of injuries last season and was able to get the wild card spot. This is a better team than last season. They can easily repeat last season or they can win the AL East. It all depends on if the “what ifs” fall into place.
