New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons. Super Bowl 51.
Vegas has the Patriots as the early 3 point favorite. But, will the game be that close?
Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman have reached their full potential this season. Ryan, the likely MVP, had a career year throwing for 4,995 yards and 38 touchdowns. But, who is to thank for Ryan's burst of success? Kyle Shanahan? Dan Quinn? No. The answer is, Alex Mack.
Mack, the team's center, completed the Falcons offensive line. Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Mack a grade of 86.4, Mack was ranked No. 2 overall by PFF at center and first in run blocking.
Here is the thing with the Falcons, though, they lack of experience. The Falcons defense is led by the second-year player, Vic Beasly and two rookies in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. That defense will need to stop Tom Brady... a tough task. Espically when that defense also lost their best cornerback, Desmond Trufant to pectoral surgery.
Speaking of Tom Brady, he is really, REALLY, playing for something a little bit more than the Falcons. Brady is looking for revenge, Brady is out for blood, and he seems unstoppable right now.
This Super Bowl will for sure be a high scoring one; Vegas has the over under at 59 points. Personally, I would take the over. I think New England can easily put up 30 plus points. The Falcons defense this year gave up a total of 406 points, giving up an average of 25.4 points per game.
25.4 points are high by any standard, but when that is your normal, and now you are going up against Tom Brady... That 25.4 could easily become 35. Tom Brady was able to put up 28 points against the Seattle Seahawks defense in Super Bowl XLIX, arguably one of the best defenses in NFL history. That year, the Seahawks defense only gave up an average of 15.9 points per game... This means the Patriots beat the Seahawks average by 12.1 points. If the Patriots were to beat the Falcons average by 12.1 points, this would mean they would score 37 points.
Also, all the attention this year has been in New England and Atlanta's offense. But, New England's defense has been overlooked. Headed by Matt Patricia, the Patriots defense this year is first in total points allowed with 250, first in opponent points-per-game with 15.6. Therefore, following my previous paragraph, this would mean the Atlanta Falcons would need to put up more than 37 points against a defense that only allows an average of 15.6 points per game... Does not seem likely, not impossible, though.
This will be a memorable Super Bowl for sure but in the end... I think New England's experience will be the difference maker. However, I do not believe this will be a game where Malcolm Butler needs to make a goal-line interception with 20 seconds left again, but I do believe it could come down to the final few drives.
