Here we are, nearly a week out from Super Bowl LI. The greatest sporting event of the year is almost upon us. The culmination of another NFL season. The final showdown between the New England Patriots (again) and…. The Atlanta Falcons!?
If you live outside northeast Georgia, and you picked the Falcons to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, please raise your hands. Atlanta being in the big game is far and away the biggest surprise of this year, and it’s not even close. I cannot even think of Super Bowl team that got less hype than the Falcons did. Atlanta started the year off 4-1 including a dominating victory in Denver. After that, they cooled off a bit with losses to Seattle and San Diego. Falling to 4-3, they were merely a decent team. Strong offense but certainly not a conference heavyweight that could triumph over the Cowboys, Seahawks or even the Packers. The Falcons quietly went 7-2 down the stretch, winning their first division title since 2012 and finishing as the 8th highest scoring offense of all time behind Matt Ryan’s finest year as a pro. Yet the Falcons could get no love. They were drowned out by the hype of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot in Dallas. They were unable to rise above the noise generated by Aaron Rodgers playing like he punched in some Madden cheat-codes. They couldn’t escape preconceived notions about their own history. Such as “Atlanta will just collapse” or “Matt Ryan will flop yet again in the playoffs.” The ultimate sign of disrespect was that many, myself certainly included, didn’t even pick them to beat a weak Green Bay team at home. After dismantling the Seattle Seahawks, and decimating the fraudulent Packers, Atlanta was able to prove the doubters wrong by finally showing up in the postseason. This is now the second straight season where the NFC South has sent one of their teams to the Super Bowl, and the first division since realignment where all four teams have made it to the big game. The Falcons are red hot, and have proven they can beat the best. However, they face one final and monumental hurdle to reach the mountain top.
That final hurdle is arguably the most impressive Super Bowl franchise in NFL history: The New England Patriots. After appearing in a record sixth straight Conference Championship, Tom Brady will start in a record seventh Super Bowl after he led his team to a record ninth Super Bowl appearance in team history. I used the word “record” a lot because what we are witnessing is beyond impressive. It is something never thought possible, especially in the era of free agency and constant team turnover. What the Patriots have accomplished is nothing short of monumental, and may never be duplicated. The Patriots finished the year 14-2, only losing one game when Tom Brady started. New England also went 8-0 on the road, becoming only the 7th team in League history to accomplish such a feat. They are also the second franchise to go 8-0 on the road more than once, as they also did it in 2007. New England’s dominance is almost routine at this point, they won 14 games and almost no one batted an eye. The AFC playoffs had little interest because everyone knew that nothing could prevent them from reaching the Super Bowl again. Pittsburgh was easily the second best team in the conference and they were put to bed easily to the tune of 36-17. New England may have coasted through their conference, but their final game will be more than a simple cakewalk
PREDICTION – Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have won four Super Bowls in their six appearances together. Brady is, without a doubt, the greatest postseason quarterback to have ever played the game. The city of Boston is a city of champions, with 36 total titles between their professional teams. Compare that to Atlanta’s one, the 1995 Braves, the culture edge clearly goes to New England. The history edge goes to New England as the Patriots have been to the game before and know how to handle themselves. The coaching edge goes to New England with Bill Belichick. Many of these so-called “edges” go in favor of the Patriots
But it won’t matter. Because Atlanta is going to win.
Yes. I’m picking the Falcons to win, because I do not believe that the Patriots have a dynamic enough defensive unit to consistently stop Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Davonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, and Mohammad Sanu. “But Kole,” one might say, “doesn’t New England have the number one defense this year?” Statistically, yes. Numbers may not lie, but they don’t always tell the whole story. Let’s dig a little deeper, shall we?
Here is a list of some of the opposing quarterbacks the Patriots faced: Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Landry Jones, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor (twice), Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), and Brock Osweiler… twice. How many “All-Pro” types do you see on that list?
There is one quarterback I left off that list. Russell Wilson. I left him off because he is an excellent example of how incredibly overvalued the Patriots defense is. Back in November, the Patriots were coming off of a bye week. They caught a Seattle team traveling cross country on a short week. They were home, a place where they almost never lose. An odd quirk of the schedule had a game primed for a New England statement win. They lost. Now, you might say that the Seahawks are a great team, and it was only a one score game. True, but looking at the statistics you’ll see that Russell Wilson had his way all night on that defense. Wilson threw for 348 yards and three scores. The running back duo of rookie CJ Prosise and Christine Michael (who was cut a few weeks later) racked up 96 yards on the ground. Behind Seattle’s dreadful offensive line, Wilson was never touched once. Seattle was a bad team on the road, only averaging 14.75 points per game away from the Pacific Northwest, and they hung 31 on the Patriots. If it weren’t for red zone issues that resulted in field goals, it could have been more. Russell Wilson was easily the best quarterback the Patriots faced all regular season and he carved them up like a Thanksgiving turkey.
I’ll bring up the Seahawks as an example for one more point. They were able to finish the year with the #4 scoring defense, against much more impressive quarterbacks. Carson Palmer (twice), Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. That #4 scoring defense was absolutely torched by the Falcons in their divisional round matchup.
The best shot New England has to beating Atlanta is to hold them to under 30 points. When the Falcons don’t cross the 30 point threshold, they are an abysmal 1-5. Bill Belichick specializes in taking away an offenses best asset. But take away Julio Jones, you have Mohammad Sanu. Try to take away the pass, the Falcons will just run all over the field with two excellent backs.
I also believe that the coaching edge for this game is a push. Belichick may be the best to ever coach, but Dan Quinn on the opposing sideline is no scrub. Quinn has specific game planning experience against the Patriots from when he was the Seahawks defensive coordinator for Super Bowl XLIX. He was able to hold the Patriots to 28. While the Legion of Boom was more talented, his Falcons defense for LI will be much healthier. Atlanta excels at taking the ball away. If they can force a critical turnover, they have a real shot. Neither team will blow the other one out, they are too good for that. The largest margin of victory/defeat the Patriots have experienced in a Super Bowl under Brady and Belichick is only four points.
This Super Bowl will feature two exciting and interesting teams. I do not see either defense holding the other to under 30 points, I see a high scoring shootout. Whoever has the ball last will triumph. We will all be winners when watching this instant classic in the making.
I’m taking the Falcons, 38-34.
