Playoff season is finally here! With only three more games in the regular season, all the hard work teams have put into the season can come to an end. Except for those ten teams lucky enough to find themselves able to play in late October. With the National League playoff teams set, let’s take a look at how they match up.
National League Wild Card
It all starts with the Wild Card game. On October 7, the Chicago Cubs playoff chances will be challenged by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of all the playoff games to come, this could be the most exciting. Jake Arrieta squaring up against Gerrit Cole is a matchup we can only dream of. And of course, a loss means elimination. As a team, the Cubs post a .747 OPS, good for ninth in all baseball. The Pirates are no slouches either. They actually come in at .744.
In the grand scheme of things the difference is nonexistent. What will really determine this game is the pitching. Jake Arrieta is on a streak that’s been one of the best in recent history. Gerrit Cole, who was included in the conversation for best pitcher in the National League at the All Star break, has crumbled a bit as the seasons gone on. Looking at his monthly ERA, it’s steadily increased.
| April | 1.76 |
| May | 2.43 |
| June | 2.35 |
| July | 2.40 |
| August | 3.13 |
| 3.29 | |
| Season | 2.60 |
A 2.60 ERA is definitely something the Cubs should be worrying about, but he’s steadily become more hitable as the season has progressed. On the other hand, outside of a bad May, Arrieta’s been unstoppable.
Prediction: Cubs over Pirates
National League Division Series
The St. Louis Cardinals, recorded their 100th win yesterday and being the proud possessors of the best record in baseball, are set for a deep October run. In easily the best division in all baseball (National League Central), they’ve claimed the top position and guaranteed themselves home field advantage during the playoffs. Whatever the outcome of the Wild Card game, the Cardinals will play the victor whether it be the Cubs or the Pirates. Looking at the Cardinal’s record against the two clubs, it looks like St. Louis has an edge in this series.
| At Home | Away | |
| vs. Cubs | 7–3 | 4–5 |
| vs. Pirates | 6–3 | 4–6 |
The home field advantage in this series for the Cardinals looks to be a big player. Another big advantage is that the Cubs and Pirates will have burned their aces from the Wild Card game (Arrieta or Cole). This will be a big factor in the outcome as well as the opposing team’s best pitchers will only be able to pitch once.
Prediction: Cardinals over Cubs/Pirates
National League Division Series
Next, we move to the other National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. With only three games left to play, both are trying to accumulate as many regular season wins as possible. The one with the most at the end of the year, will have home field advantage for the five game series. For the Dodgers, losing home field advantage could be devastating. Playing away from Dodger stadium, their record is a poor 37–44. The Mets aren't much better, however, sitting at 41–40.
Outside of home field advantage, this series will be one of the most pitcher dominated in October. The Dodgers, possessing two of the best pitchers in the game, Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, will have to battle it out against the rising stars of the Mets rotation: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. These pitchers aren’t going to be giving up many runs, so the team to scratch and claw for a couple extra will be the victor. Looking at the lineups, as long as the Dodgers limit Yoenis Cespedes’ damage, they should be okay. Along with Lucas Duda showing large platoon splits (hitting left handed pitchers much worse than right handers), in later innings, his power should almost be a non–factor.
For the Mets, they need to sit out the Dodger’s aces and eat into the Dodger’s bullpen. With one of the worst bullpens in the league, this could be the Dodger’s Achilles' heel. However, if the Mets can’t take advantage of the later innings, they’ll have a tough time beating the third best offense in the league that the Dodgers bring.
Prediction: Dodgers over Mets
National League Championship Series
That brings us to the National League Championship Series. So far, the predictions I have made mean the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a seven game series. The winner advances to the World Series. For all Dodger fans over the past two years, the Cardinals have brought tears and frustration during the playoffs. They’ve managed to kick the Dodgers out of the post season the past two years, and have single handedly given Kershaw the reputation of being a poor postseason pitcher.
Whatever happens in this series, it will sure be entertaining. Emotions will be running high, and anticipation of greatness will be in all player’s minds. However, the Cardinals look like an unstoppable team. The Cardinals will once again be hosting the series, and bring a great home record to boot. Pair that with the Dodgers inexplicable inability to win on the road and the Cardinals are looking good.
A note of warning, however. The Dodgers, who have felt the sting of being eliminated the past two years by the Cardinals, will not go quietly. For me, being a Dodger’s fan, this is the hardest series to predict. I want nothing more than my team to crush the Cardinals, but I’m also very skeptical they’ll be able to accomplish this.
Prediction: Cardinals over Dodgers
The playoffs are a strange time. Almost every team has the same odds of winning it all. The team to end October as the champions, is almost always the team that gets hot at the right time. In some sense, it’s almost pure luck due to the small sample size paired with baseballs ability to be completely random. But October means excitement and great games. So whatever you do, don’t miss any as they’re sure to be thrilling.
Welcome to October everyone!
