Can anybody stop Novak Djokovic from becoming the first player in the Open Era to win five Grand Slams in a row? That’s the main question on everyone’s mind as the 2016 Wimbledon Championships begin today at the All-England Club in Wimbledon, England. Although the year is just halfway over, Wimbledon is the third of the four Grand Slams in the sport of professional tennis, and it is the only one played on grass. This means that players who normally don’t do well on other tennis surfaces such as clay or especially slow hard courts can suddenly shine on the quick and slippery surface of the Wimbledon grass courts, a fact which top players must be constantly vigilant of.
However, that hasn’t stopped Djokovic from winning Wimbledon the last two years in a row (beating Roger Federer, arguably the greatest grass court player in the history of the game, in the final both times). Djokovic has been unquestionably the most dominant player of the last five years, and it takes almost superhuman efforts to beat him. In Grand Slams, he’s unbeatable; if you had the unfortunate luck of facing him in any Grand Slam since Wimbledon of last year, you lost the match. Even more bad news for players at Wimbledon is the fact that Djokovic is likely still riding the wave of elation after winning the French Open earlier this month for the first time, meaning the last glaring hole in his resumé has now been filled. He has absolutely nothing to lose anymore for the rest of his career (with the possible exception of an Olympic gold medal), and that makes any player of any level dangerous.
That being said, there are still a number of players out there who could pose a serious threat to Djokovic’s chances this upcoming fortnight. The biggest threat undoubtedly comes in the form of Andy Murray, who hails from Scotland and thus has the firm backing of the English crowd at Wimbledon. Nothing would please the British more than to see Murray repeat his stellar 2013 Wimbledon performance, where he beat Novak Djokovic to take the title and become the first British player since Fred Perry in 1936 to win Wimbledon. Adding to the fact that Murray is fresh off of winning the Queen’s Club tournament (played on grass) and has rehired Ivan Lendl, the man who coached him at Wimbledon in 2013, makes Murray nothing less than a formidable force at this year’s Championships. If Murray keeps his temper in check (which in recent years has clearly been a struggle for him) and plays the quick, aggressive tennis that’s helped him win Wimbledon in the past, he will have a very good shot at winning the title again after three years.
Other threats, the considerably less so than Murray, come in the form of Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem. Federer, a record-tying seven-time Wimbledon champion and finalist in 2014 and 2015, is coming off of a lengthy string of injuries, however, that have severely impacted his 2016 season; so affected was he by his latest back injury that he had to skip the French Open, the first time he’s skipped playing in a Grand Slam since 1999. Federer is also losing matches to the next generation of tennis stars more frequently; in just the last two weeks Federer fell to 19-year-old Alexander Zverev and 22-year-old Dominic Thiem, squandering two match points in the latter match. Given how hot Djokovic has been playing in recent times, it seems a pretty tall order for Federer to rebound and dethrone the king of tennis, despite the fact that the grass courts of Wimbledon have provided Federer with the majority of his Grand Slam victories.
Wawrinka, however, is a different story. Having won two of the last ten Grand Slams (beating Djokovic in both of those tournaments) and just falling short of making the semifinals at Wimbledon last year, Wawrinka’s recent success at Grand Slams makes him a serious contender for the title this year. His biggest flaw, however, is his inconsistency; he may collapse against a weaker opponent in the first round of a tournament, or he may stun everybody and beat three top-ten players to win the whole thing. He is the only player to have beaten both the number one and two seeds in a Grand Slam and then go on to take the title; it would be a mistake for anybody to not take him seriously at the 2016 Wimbledon Championships.
The only other player on the radar to win Wimbledon this year would have to be Dominic Thiem. With 47 wins and 12 losses in 2016, he has won more matches this year than anyone else (including Djokovic) and has the third highest win-loss record of the year. He’s also on a major roll, having won one tournament on all three surfaces (hard, clay and grass) in the last six months. Although he lost handily to Djokovic in the semifinals of the French Open a few weeks ago, Thiem should be feeling very confident in his game based on the incredible year he’s been having (he’s now ranked eight in the world after starting the year ranked twentieth). Experts generally agree that Thiem is bound to win his first Grand Slam in the near future - could Wimbledon 2016 be his maiden crown? Time will tell, but his odds are positive to say the least.
Of course, it bears mentioning that Rafael Nadal will not be playing at Wimbledon this year due to a wrist injury he suffered at the French Open. Although Nadal has enjoyed some great success at the tournament (winning it twice and making the final three times), in recent years he has repeatedly crashed out early, never making it past the round of 16 since 2011. As such, it is hard to say that his absence will greatly affect the draw; at the tail-end of his career, Nadal has likely had his last significant victories at the All-England Club, and for better or worse, will do well to just sit this one out and gear up for the Olympics later this summer.
MY PREDICTIONS
My French Open picks from a few weeks ago were met with mixed success, as both Serena Williams lost and Rafael Nadal was forced to withdraw from the tournament, when I claimed that Serena would win and Nadal had an equally good chance of winning as Djokovic did. However, it’s hard not to pick Serena again on the women’s side, as she has won Wimbledon six times before and is still playing some great tennis. Women who have a decent shot outside of Serena are Petra Kvitova (a two-time champion) and Agnieszka Radwanska (a finalist). Dark horses are Sloane Stephens, Venus Williams and recent French-Open champion Garbine Muguruza (note: the reason I’ve put Muguruza as a long-shot here is, ironically, because she just won the French; winning both Grand Slams in a row is an infamously challenging task).
On the men’s side, it's hard not to go with the overwhelming favorite Novak Djokovic, but I would also contend that Andy Murray stands a fairly good chance of winning the tournament too. Ultimately, it may come down to yet another Djokovic-Murray battle in the final of a Grand Slam, in which case the player with the greatest odds would be the one who's had the easier matches. However, if the conditions are neutral and both players are hitting the ball well, I say the odds favor Djokovic 60-40. Other potential champions could be Dominic Thiem, Roger Federer or Stan Wawrinka. Outsiders include Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev, or Tomas Berdych (who made the final six years ago).
Do you agree, or disagree, with my predictions? Leave a comment below with your top five predictions!
