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Villanova VS. North Carolina

Analysis and predictions for the National Championship.

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Villanova VS. North Carolina
NCAA.com

As the Doors once said: ‘This is the end, beautiful friend. The end.”

We have now reached the final stage of March Madness. It is time to crown the title of champion onto one team that has had to work hard and overcome lots of adversity to reach this point.

Tomorrow night, Villanova and North Carolina will clash in their pursuit of the ultimate prize. Both teams are coming off dominating performances in their Final Four games, their margin of victory coming to a total of 61 points.

Now I wrote last week that I thought Villanova and Oklahoma was going to be the tightest game of the tournament. I was dead wrong in that regard as Villanova dominated from start to finish winning by a score of 95-51, setting a record for margin of victory in the Final Four. That win was Villanova’s first in the Final Four since 1985, when they went on to claim the national championship.

The Wildcats dominated both sides of the floor by shooting 71% from the field for the game and shutting down Oklahoma star Buddy Hield, holding him to only nine points for the whole game after he averaged 29 for the tournament.

Josh Hart led the way for the Wildcats as he had 23 points, 8 rebounds and four assists. Kris Jenkins redeemed himself for a terrible game from behind the three-point line against Kansas by going 4-for-7 from the field to go along with 18 points.

Adding to their advantage was the fact they forced 17 turnovers, 12 of which were by way of steals. Will Villanova be able to keep that defensive excellency going in the final?

North Carolina faced a much closer contest for a large portion of their game against Syracuse until pulling away in the second half for a 83-66 victory to advance to their first national championship game since 2009.

The Tar Heels were able to weather the early storm that Syracuse brought at the beginning of the first half. The lead changed several times during that span before the Tar Heels got into a groove and did not look back from there.

The key to success for the Tar Heels against Villanova will be maintaining good ball movement and continuing to out-rebound the opposition. The Tar Heels out-rebounded Syracuse 43-31 for the game including pulling down 27 defensive boards.

So who is going home with the national championship?

Who’s Got the Edge Going In?

Both teams are riding a tidal wave of momentum right now, so it’s pretty tough to say who has the definitive advantage going into tomorrow night’s game. But in terms of pure momentum, I would have to say Villanova after that dominating win against Oklahoma.

The Wildcats turned up the defensive intensity as the game went on and would not let the Sooners get anything going. The Sooners looked overwhelmed against the Wildcat defense that it was almost like watching Michael Jordan against the “Bad Boy” Detroit Pistons of the late 80’s.

Don’t expect North Carolina to be as overwhelmed though. The Tar Heels also play a very good defensive game with the anchors of Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks leading the way.

Keys to the Game

Villanova

  • Keep up the defensive intensity. If they can force North Carolina to play on their heels (no pun intended) and dictate the pace of the game, all will be well for the Wildcats.
  • Shoot the three well. North Carolina ranks 284th in the nation from beyond the arc, so if the Wildcats can keep their hot streak from three-point land going, they should win.
  • Turnovers. The Wildcats have done a great job forcing turnovers during the tournament, forcing an average of 14.4 for the tournament. If they can make North Carolina uncomfortable and force a lot of turnovers, then the Wildcats will prevail.

North Carolina

  • Pound the post. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks have led the Tar Heels’ crusade in the post the whole tournament. If those two can get going early, then North Carolina’s chances of winning increase.
  • Get to the foul line. The Tar Heels shot 81% from the foul line against Syracuse and were 28th in the country in free throw shooting. If they can get Villanova to foul early and often, the Tar Heels will have a chance.
  • Stop the three point shot. If the Tar Heels can stop Villanova from getting going beyond the arc, especially Kris Jenkins who has been putting on a Steph Curry-esque performance by shooting 48.3% from the three, it will force the Wildcats to be one-dimensional and should allow the Tar Heels to dictate the pace.

Prediction

This is going to be the best game of the tournament by far. There will be no quit on either side as both teams fight for the right to be named national champion.

In the end, I think it will come down to the final minute, and Villanova will emerge as your champions of the 2015-2016 college basketball season.

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This article has not been reviewed by Odyssey HQ and solely reflects the ideas and opinions of the creator.
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