When I first learned about the psychology behind F.O.M.O., all I could picture was my little 8 year-old self standing in our driveway and watching my family leave for a weekend camping trip without me. Every year my best friend’s birthday party and my family’s archery tournament occurred on the same weekend. Every year I had to decide if I wanted to stay or go. No matter which I chose, I was going to have a good weekend. However in my mind, this decision was so monumental, and so life-altering, that I couldn’t chose even when everything was packed, the car was running, and I had run out of time. Eventually, my mother made my decision for me by ushering everyone into the car, and driving off - leaving me with my best friend’s mom. (Of course, I immediately realized that I wanted to leave with them).

This was a fairly typical moment for me, and one that illustrates, however insignificantly, an affective forecasting error. Affective forecasting errors are the human tendency to think that events will affect us more deeply and for longer into the future than they actually do. This is fueled by the two phenomena of focalism and immune neglect. Focalism, just as it sounds, means that we overestimate how much we will focus on the event after it happens, or what a focal point it will be to our lives. The second, immune neglect, is our tendency to discount our body’s automatic coping skills when considering how we will be affected by an event. This can lead to unnecessary worry, dread and in my case, indecision.

Instead of recognizing that either choice would lead to a positive weekend, I had what we now call “fear of missing out”. What’s more, I saw the choice as a decision between my friends and my family. I was convinced that my friend would be so hurt if I didn’t go to her birthday party that our relationship would be irreparably damaged. Similarly, I believed that my parents would be deeply wounded if I ungratefully chose a birthday party over a very special annual trip with my family. Not only did I underestimate my own ability to cope with missing out, I also underestimated other’s ability to handle my absence (they really did not care). I’m sure you’ll be relieved to hear that I had a great weekend at my friend’s birthday. Afterward, I did not dwell on it for even a moment.

While this example is (hopefully) obviously irrational and silly, the human bias toward this way of thinking is not limited to melodramatic little kids. The affective forecasting error can cause real problems for adults, as well. I think the takeaway here is that it is important to understand and learn about the ways we think and the shortcuts our brains take. Despite their adaptive purposes, they can pose real dangers to our happiness and the happiness of others. If we can recognize biases at work, that is the first step to overcoming them.