The recent leak of a classified, and unconfirmed, intelligence brief has thrown the political world into an upheaval, and cast a shadow over the already troubled transition of President Elect Donald J. Trump. The leaked information says that there is a potential that Russia has damaging and compromising information on Mr. Trump, including possibly a sex tape, deep financial connections, and even coordination between Moscow and the Trump campaign. It makes clear that Russia complied damaging information on both Clinton and Trump but only chose to release the information on Clinton in order to sway the election towards Trump. The source for these allegations is allegedly a former British intelligence officer who is considered credible by US sources. The information itself has not been verified, and many are doubtful that some of the more salacious claims are accurate, but the FBI is currently investigating.
Regardless of the truth of these claims one thing is clear: Moscow, and Vladimir Putin, wanted Donald Trump to be President of the United States. And Trump in return is at least friendly towards the Russian autocrat.
The argument for these claims is now all but ironclad. Putin has personally praised Trump, Russian state media (read: Putin controlled) has consistently praised him as a strong and powerful leader while vilifying his opponent, and on Wednesday even Trump acknowledged that Russian government hackers targeted the DNC and Hillary Clinton allies, secretly funneling the most damaging information to Wikileaks through intermediaries. For his part Trump has extensively praised Putin as a strong leader, has promoted a shift towards Russia, ridiculed President Obama’s attempts to constrain or harm him, and even said that Putin’s praise of him was an asset to his presidency.
This connection between Trump and Putin, even if it is merely the result of a shared worldview and not the result of anything suggested in the recent leak, should be deeply concerning to any objective observer.
Trump has a vision for a new alliance between the US and Russia, based on mutual hatred of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and a desire for stability in the Middle East. In fact his plan to defeat ISIL and restore stability to the region hinges on the participation of Russia, and coordination between the two countries.
The problem with this plan is that Russia has really shown zero desire to defeat ISIL. Yes, they are involved militarily in the region, but not to defeat ISIL. They promised to help defeat ISIL but most of their military action has been to support Syrian President Bashir al Assad (and his Iranian allies) and crush his enemies in the region, including US-backed militias and the Kurds, who just so happen to be longtime US allies and the most effective fighting force in the entire war against ISIL.
Most concerning, and horrifying, is Russia’s involvement in what Human Rights Watch considers war crimes in the Syrian city of Aleppo. Russia has been consistently bombing the city of Aleppo along with Syrian forces, allegedly bombing “terrorist targets.” However by most accounts the bombing campaign has devastated civilian targets, wiped out entire neighborhoods, and by some reports has killed nearly 500 civilians, including almost 100 children. The bombing campaign has included rampant use of indeterminate weaponry, including cluster bombs and incendiary weapons.
Russia is clearly not interested in engaging ISIL, and has objectives in the region that diverge drastically from the United States. Even if he was to ally with the US in order to defeat ISIL it would be on his terms, terms that would heavily favor Syrian President al Assad and Iran, both Russian allies and adversarial to the United States.
The Iran angle is particularly troubling, given Iran’s hostility towards the US and our Israeli allies. As Russia gets stronger in the Middle East, so does Iran, something that the Trump administration appears to have neglected.
Such cooperation, like any international negotiations, would necessarily involve compromise and concessions. In order to entice Russia to actually take any meaningful action to defeat ISIL the Trump administration would have to offer them something significant, something that they really wanted. In this case Russia would likely expect the US to turn a blind eye to Russian expansion into Eastern Europe, its actions in Ukraine, and further anti-democratic activities by Putin and his allies domestically. Closer ties between the US and Russia run the risk of further legitimizing and strengthening Putin, emboldening him to aggressively continue his campaign of expansion.
This is not to mention, of course, the optics to the world community of the United States allying itself so closely with Russia. Europe has long been apprehensive about Putin, even more so after the events in Ukraine. A US shift towards Russia runs the risk of alienating our European allies, particularly Germany, one of the strongest bastions of economic and liberal democratic principles in Europe, in addition to further straining the bonds of NATO.
To be clear the complete and utter destruction of the ISIL and the stability of the Middle East is a crucial foreign policy objective and must be at the heart of the US strategy in the region. However we cannot do so recklessly. We must ensure that in destroying ISIL we do not ally ourselves with an autocratic and hostile regime, causing more harm than good. The Trump administration needs to take a long view of the Middle East and beyond, and while an alliance with Russia may prove beneficial in the short term but has the potential to destabilize the region and empower US enemies in the long term.
Russia is now our ally, and their interests absolutely do not align with those of the United States. The sooner Donald Trump learns this the better.
