Two steps forward, one step back. Coming off an 8-8 week I sharted the bed with a 7-9 performance. For that I apologize, especially in going against Bill Belichick. The other losses--Jets, Steelers, Lions, Bengals--I chalk up to bad luck which is a cost of the game. But as the living legend Bill Belichick would say, we’re on to Week 4.

The first slate of byes kicks off this week, but features just two teams, the Eagles and Packers. There will be not be a chance to bet on or against the Carson Wentz hype train, but fellow rookie Dak Prescott looks like he can fill the void. New York quarterbacks combined for eight interceptions last week in losses and both teams are facing top five defenses this week. Speaking of quarterbacks the Patriots might trot out Julian Edelman if Jacoby Brissett is not able to go against the Bills. The spreads already look a little suspect so tread lightly this week and just remember I’m always here to make you look better.

Dolphins (+7) over BENGALS

This is a trap game if I’ve ever seen one. The Bengals are clearly the better football team. The home team typically fares better on the short week due to no traveling. And oh yeah, the Dolphins aren’t very good. Last week they were unable to cover against a Browns team implementing a college-like platoon at quarterback. To make it worse they actually needed overtime to put away the worst team in the league. It’s clear that outside of Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker there is not much to talk about with the Dolphins.

As for the Bengals. After going 11-5 last season they are in legitimate danger of falling out of the playoff race. After this game they face the Cowboys and Patriots on the road before hosting the Browns. If they were to lose this game and fall to 1-3 there is a high possibility they start 1-5 (0-6 if Nick Folk did literally anything Week 1). Andy Dalton knows that. A.J. Green knows that. Marvin Lewis definitely knows that. Expect the Bengals to secure this must-win, but without Tyler Eifert to take attention off Green you still can’t trust the Bengals to blow the doors off the game.

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Bengals 27

Colts (-2.5) over JAGUARS

Hallelujah the Colts finally covered last week. It was only a matter of time until Andrew Luck willed his team to a victory and with their playoff chances on the line (only four teams in NFL history have started 0-3 and made the playoffs, with the 1998 Bills being the last). Now they get to travel to Jacksonville to take on the basement-dwelling Jaguars. With possession receiver Donte Moncrief out for six weeks the Colts offense can return to their bread and butter, the vertical passing game. T.Y. Hilton looked like the fantasy stud from 2014 and second-year receiver Phillip Dorsett can straight fly down the field. Against a bad Jags defense Luck should have little trouble airing it out.

Is there really anything else left to say about the Jaguars? I have sold whatever stock I had in the Jags last week and couldn’t feel better. Blake Bortles is a great garbage time quarterback, but not someone worth putting money on. Allen Robinson is a great talent who deserves better. Gus Bradley? Well Gus Bradley needs to get fired already. Hired to turn the franchise around Bradley has kept the status quo going 12-39 thus far in his career. Will another 0-4 start be enough to finally get him fired? I doubt it.

Prediction: Colts 31, Jaguars 27

Titans (+6.5) over TEXANS

Congratulations to Bill O’Brien for getting embarrassed on national television last week. Bill Belichick didn’t just win--he grabbed O’Brien’s face, shoved it up his ass, and farted in his mouth. There is no other way to describe how a Patriots team that had their top receiver as their backup quarterback beat a fully healthy Texans team 27-0. Clearly Belichick is the GOAT, but the way the Texans went down was more embarrassing than the score. Brock Osweiler looked like the third string quarterback in the game and not Jacoby Brissett. If Osweiler was trying to steal Alex Smith’s “Captain Check Down” nickname he succeeded.

After watching that garbage last Thursday how can you feel confident spotting the Texans a touchdown? Especially with J.J. Watt now gone for the season with a back injury. This Titans team has proven to be one of the friskiest opponents already and without Watt the Texans defense will be forced to play that much better.

DeMarco Murray’s comeback season has gone as expected in Tennessee. He has been the centerpiece of an offense that is far from good, but also far from bad. Marcus Mariota has been solid this season and you can see the pieces--Delanie Walker, Murray, Tajae Sharpe, Derrick Henry---of a good team in the near future. They’re 1-0 on the road against the spread and while they will likely lose this game they are worth the gamble here to cover.

Prediction: Titans 20, Texans 24

Browns (+9.5) over REDSKINS

Last week we learned that the Browns are bad, but not that bad. They can cover against bad teams and the Redskins until proven otherwise are a bad team. Hue Jackson used Terrelle Pryor like a Swiss army knife last week, switching between quarterback and receiver. Pryor stepped up and put together quite the stat line (35 passing yards, 21 rushing yards, 144 receiving yards, and a touchdown). This week they get a Redskins team that cannot stop the run so Pryor should have a nice game as well as Isaiah Crowell.

Don’t get too high on the Redskins. Last week the Giants lost the game more so than the Redskins won it. Scratch that--Eli Manning lost the game more than the Redskins won it. Why he decided to target Will Tye over Odell fucking Beckham or Sterling Shepard is beyond me, but what’s done is done. Kirk Cousins did look good in the second half and he can build on that momentum to silence some of the critics who are still laughing at him for demanding $20 million a year.

Prediction: Browns 23, Redskins 28

JETS (Even) over Seahawks

I’m a Jets fan to a fault. Despite Ryan Fitzpatrick defecating all over Arrowhead Stadium last week I still can’t go against Gang Green. And when I say Fitzpatrick defecated all over the place Sunday I mean it. The Harvard man scored the lowest QBR ever (21.4) against the Chiefs as he threw not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six...actually it was just six interceptions. Well at least he threw a couple touchdowns right? Nope. He was the sole reason the Jets lost last week which is why I feel better about this week. Sure the stifling Seahawks are coming to town, but they are hobbled and playing the early game.

The Seahawks demolished the 49ers last week at home 37-18, but not at a price. Russell Wilson sprained his knee and left the game early. The early exit had more to do with the score (34-3 at the time), but it would be a shock to see him running around the field like he usually does this Sunday. That means that suspect Seahawks line will have to protect Wilson that much more and run the football like they did last week (127 yards) to win. The only issue is they are facing the best defensive line in football. A desperate Jets team plus a hobbled Wilson should equal a huge home win for the Jets. Unless Fitzpatrick throws six more interceptions.

Prediction: Seahawks 13, Jets 16

PATRIOTS (Even) over Bills

This is a joke right? All the Patriots have to do is win this game? If you were one of the few unlucky idiots like myself who foolishly bet against Bill Belichick you can see the humor in this lack of a spread. I’m aware the Bills shellacked the Cardinals at home last week, but at the end of the day it’s Rex Ryan vs. Bill Belichick--a mastermind versus a bozo. I don’t care if Robert Kraft is playing quarterback the Patriots are winning this game. Last week was the most dominant performance I’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time considering all the injuries the Pats were dealing with. And that was against a good Texans team.

Don’t play yourself, the Bills are not good. Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy are really good, but after that there is nothing to talk about. Last week Belichick took DeAndre Hopkins out of the game, this week McCoy should receive similar treatment. Taylor doesn’t have enough weapons to counter that and Ryan doesn’t have anything left to throw at Belichick to. Pick the Patriots and go down with the GOAT or pray Rex Ryan can sneak out one more against Belichick? If you had to think about that you already lost.

Prediction: Bills 16, Patriots 27

Panthers (-3.5) over FALCONS

Was last week a fluke or can the Panthers not beat elite defenses? We’ll have to wait for the answer to that question because the Falcons defense is many things, but elite is not one of them. Cam Newton will feel like a new man and the Panthers offense can get back on track versus one of the worst defenses in the league. Last week Newton was stifled (3 INTs) and the offense as a whole suffered because of that. This week Newton should resume to his dominant play in the Georgia Dome.

What can be considered elite is Atlanta’s running game. A healthy Tevin Coleman has been a shot in the arm to the Falcons offense. On Monday night Coleman and Devonta Freeman ran all over the pathetic Saints defense enroute to 45 points. Matt Ryan is quietly having a resurgence and Julio Jones hasn’t even kicked it into top gear yet.

The Panthers defense is the polar opposite of the Saints and those wide open running lanes will turn into standstill traffic on Sunday. Last time these two met in the Georgia Dome the Falcons handed the Panthers their only loss of the regular season. Don’t think the Panthers forgot about it. Newton and company will look to return the favor and get back into first place.

Prediction: Panthers 34, Falcons 28

Raiders (+3.5) over RAVENS

Faith in the Raiders paid off big time last week. Coming off a home loss to the Falcons the Raiders were road underdogs at an inferior Titans. This week they are underdogs again visiting another inferior team, this time it's the Ravens. The Ravens are indeed 3-0, but I will go ahead and say that is the softest 3-0 a team can get. They had trouble putting away the Browns and Jaguars so the Raiders should be licking their chops.

Derek Carr seems to be reliable at the very least. Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Latavius Murray are a good enough to average 20 points a game most weeks. As for the Ravens? Joe Flacco has been good, Mike Wallace has been great (finally in a vertical offense), and the defense has been pedestrian as has the rushing game. The only thing keeping this from a lock of the week is the fact it’s a west coast team playing the early game and the Raiders defense has looked really bad in three games.

Prediction: Raiders 21, Ravens 20

Lions (-2.5) over BEARS

File this one under “games I do not want to watch a second of”. It appears like the Lions fooled us with a Week 1 road victory. Since then they have lost two in a row and the only sure thing on this roster is Marvin Jones. Ameer Abdullah’s injury had a bigger impact than expected, the Lions ran the ball 23 times for 50 yards (2.5 yards per carry). The defense couldn’t stop the Packers if their lives depended on it. So why would you bet on them in any scenario? Because they’re facing the Bears.

Rebuilding is the new philosophy in Chicago and losing is the practice of that. The Bears offense has now joined the Bears defense in the liability department with Jeremy Langford heading to the inactive list for the next six weeks (sprained ankle). Brian Hoyer did okay stepping in for Jay Cutler, but then again who wouldn’t look better than Cutler did this season? To put it mildly, the Bears suck. An Alshon Jeffery or Kevin White garbage score might keep this close, but with such a small spread this week the Lions should keep their rivals on the rebuilding road.

Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 21

Broncos (-3) over BUCCANEERS

Trevor Siemian isn’t bad. Who would’ve thought? The first two games of his career were easy to write off since they were at home with the best defense in the league. On the road versus a good Bengals team and he has his best game? Now you have my attention. Siemian dominated the Bengals throwing for 312 yards with four touchdowns and zero turnovers. If that was not a fluke performance than the Broncos jump right into the mix with the Patriots and Steelers for the AFC crown.

Up next they get what should be an easy test against the Buccaneers. Jameis Winston is good, but he has not proven he can beat good defenses. The Broncos are great on defense and I am actually afraid for Winston. If his line doesn’t block he might be on his back all game, if they do block the Broncos secondary will look to take Mike Evans out of the game. No matter how you look at it the Broncos are better in every department. Last week the Rams came in and won with a suspect quarterback and wishy washy defense. Use that as a frame of reference and this is a cakewalk pick.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Buccaneers 10

Rams (+8.5) over CARDINALS

This is a matchup of the enigmas. I have no idea which Rams or Cardinals team I’m getting anymore. Both underperformed in Week 1, but played great in Week 2. The Rams won at Tampa Bay despite being five point underdogs. The Cardinals got shellacked by the Bills in Buffalo. What do you do with this game? Take the points and pray you’re right.

I can see this game going many different ways. The easiest way to see it is a Cardinals blow out win with David Johnson running all over the place. Another way to see it is Todd Gurley returning to the stadium he made his debut in and having another stellar game in a Rams upset. The third way is a sloppy division game that remains close throughout. If you can stay away from this do yourself the favor. The Cardinals have the offense to make this a laugher, but can easily be the butt of the joke.

Prediction: Rams 13, Cardinals 21

Saints (+4) over CHARGERS

Are the Saints officially bad? No one is ever dead in the bad NFC South, but the Saints are one more loss away from a serious implosion. Their defense got manhandled by the Falcons offensive line and running backs on Monday night allowing 217 yards and three touchdowns. On offense Drew Brees put together his typical Superdome numbers of 300-plus yards, three passing touchdowns, and 32 total points. If their defense was merely average this team would be 2-1 or maybe 3-0.

Sadly that’s not the case and lucky for the Chargers they will get another easy matchup at home. Melvin Gordon has to be cheesing in the film room watching Freeman and Coleman shred up the Saints. He didn’t have much running room against the Colts last week, but against the Saints he should have plenty of room to operate. Philip Rivers continues to carry his unit much like Brees carries his, only Rivers’s weapons have all hit the shelf. This game will be an entertaining shootout and I think the Saints are good enough to cover and win this game.

Prediction: Saints 38, Chargers 35

Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS

How about them new look Cowboys. Before the season I felt better about the Cowboys with Dak Prescott under center and that feeling has only grown. Tony Romo was great in his time, but it looks like his body is calling it quits. Prescott has given Jason Garrett no reason to bench him when Romo is healthy. The rookie has held onto the football, shown confidence in crucial moments, and added a speed dimension to the offense that Romo cannot match. If Terrance Williams gets out of bounds in Week 1 you can talk me into the Cowboys being 3-0.

Up next for the Cowboys are the 49ers who have returned to their shitty form. They were unable to cover two double digit spreads the last two weeks and Blaine Gabbert is still the starting quarterback. Right tackle Anthony Davis retired for a second time in three years which should show you that not much has changed in that toxic building. Chip Kelly seems to be tanking and seeing who fits his system moving forward.

If this game goes as planned the Cowboys will run Zeke Elliott down the Niners’ throat with some Alfred Morris sprinkled in. Prescott will remain poised in the pass game and manage the game so the Cowboys defense gets as much rest on the sideline as possible.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, 49ers 17

STEELERS (-6) over Chiefs

Don’t overthink this one. The Steeler ran into a red hot Eagles team last week led by Carson Wentz (hey Rams and Browns how does it feel to be so stupid?) in Philly. This week they return to the friendly confines of Heinz Field with an old friend returning to the roster. Le’Veon Bell, the best running back in the league, is back people. Antonio Brown finally has someone to take the attention off him and Ben Roethlisberger finally has the final piece of his personal triangle offense. Big Ben was held out of the end zone last week so he’ll be itching to get back early and often in primetime. The Chiefs defense will most certainly come into this one overconfident after what they did to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Last week the Chiefs defense dominated Fitzpatrick, forcing six interceptions, and giving their offense a day off for the most part. Jamaal Charles will probably be out yet again (we won’t see him until after the Chiefs Week 5 bye contrary to the bullshit Andy Reid has fed us) leaving duties to Spencer Ware yet again. Alex Smith capitalized on the Jets inability to cover tight ends last week and killed them with dink and dunk passes. The Steelers have the one of the elite inside linebacker units which should slow Kelce and the other short passes down forcing Smith to throw over the top of the defense. If you’re betting on Smith winning a game throwing over the top of the defense, more power to you.

Prediction: Chiefs 16, Steelers 28

VIKINGS (-4) over Giants

When will Eli Manning realize he has Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Victor Cruz to throw to? The most frustrating part of the Giants offense has been watching Manning abandon his best weapons in the crucial moments of games in favor of...Will Tye? Give me a break. The Giants should be 3-0 and the reason they are not is because of their franchise quarterback. Eli’s negligence has already gotten to Beckham and Giants fans.

If he continues this bonehead decision making on Monday the Vikings defense will chew him up. No unit has looked as good as the Vikings defense this year. They are coming off two phenomenal performances against the top two quarterbacks--Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton--in the conference so facing Eli should be much easier. Last year the Giants came up to Minnesota (without Beckham who was suspended for Norman incident) and got washed 49-17.

The Giants sport a good defense as well so it’s unlikely the Vikings toss up 49 again, but Sam Bradford has proven that he can find Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph when he has to and Jerick McKinnon is sure to have a much more productive game than he did against a better Panthers defense. Look for the Vikings to use this game as yet another statement that they are one of the elite in the NFC.

Prediction: Giants 17, Vikings 23

--

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 21-27