When this college basketball season started, most of the experts would have said that MAAC would once again be won by Iona. This would lead to Iona being the lone representative of the MAAC come the NCAA Tournament. But the Monmouth Hawks had something to say about that.

Monmouth came out of the gates strong, taking down UCLA in their own building to start the season. This was the night the Hawks made it clear that they were going to have to be taken seriously this season. UCLA entered the season coming off a Sweet 16 birth last season; they were considered a tourney team again this season. So Monmouth made its early statement. The Monmouth community took notice, but the general public just viewed it as an early season upset.

Then came the trip to Orlando on Thanksgiving weekend. Cue the Notre Dame game: the birth of the Monmouth Bench. Not only did Monmouth take down another high quality opponent, one that was ranked (and pretty much a guaranteed NCAA Tournament team this season), but the celebrations from the bench made them known across the internet. The sports world now officially knew who the Monmouth Hawks were, and how dangerous they could be. In that same trip they defeated USC, who should be an NCAA Tournament team, and went to the wire against Dayton, who will be a tourney team.

Monmouth basketball was now officially on the map for the season, and they would not look back. Along the way they have only suffered a handful of losses, and picked up plenty of wins. They went into Georgetown and won another road game against a major conference school. They went into Iona, their chief competition in the MAAC, and won. They have earned more TV time on ESPN as the season has progressed, showing how entertaining they are to watch.

So let's look forward, shall we? First up, the MAAC Tournament.

MAAC Tournament

The MAAC Tournament will be held from Thursday, March 3 through Monday, March 7, and will consist of all 11 teams in the MAAC.

Monmouth is currently in position to enter the conference tourney as the one seed, since they are currently in first in the conference. This means Thursday will be a rest day, and they can watch the game between the eight and nine seeds. Monmouth will get the winner of that game in the quarterfinals. As things stand, those two teams would be Canisius and Quinnipiac.

No game in a conference tournament can be taken lightly. So, while Monmouth should definitely defeat either of those teams, they must make sure they do not lose focus. They have to take each game as it comes and let the talent and skill they have shown all season lead them past the eight or nine.

The semifinal game would come against either the four or five seed. Right now that would be St. Peter's or Fairfield. I would like things to stay this way, because it means Manhattan and Rider will both be on the opposite side of the bracket. While neither team is having a great season, they both tend to be difficult opponents.

The biggest plus about being the one seed is only having to face one of the two or three seeds, if either at all. Iona and Siena are those two teams. These are the clear-cut second tier of the MAAC this season, and both will put up a good fight for a berth in the NCAA tourney. I think Siena will come out on top against Iona, and it will be Monmouth versus Siena for the championship game. This will be a road game for the Hawks, as Siena's home court is the location of the tournament.

If they win they are in. By winning the conference tournament, Monmouth is guaranteed to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. If they lose, the next few weeks will be filled with wonder and curiosity.

Selection Sunday

Selection Sunday will be Sunday, March 14. If Monmouth loses in the conference tournament, this will be an extremely important day.

Considering their resume, they are a tournament team in the eyes of most people. They have several big time, high quality wins, some of which have come on the road and others at neutral court sites. They have dominated their conference for the most part. They are fun to watch. And they have the best bench in sports.

The problem comes in the form of the selection committee. They have a history of bypassing solid small conference schools like Monmouth in favor of mediocre major conference teams. The loss to Iona the other night did not help their chances. Monmouth has played a much better schedule, and won a good amount of those high quality games, compared to past small conference schools however. That is what gives me hope. But I just can't shake the feeling that the committee will cost Monmouth a spot in the field of 68 if it comes down to it.

The deeper they go in the conference tournament, the better chances they will have. A loss to Canisus in the quarterfinals will be all the committee feels it needs. On the other end, a loss to Siena or Iona in the finals is not a terrible thing. Iona is the second best in the conference (so the loss the other night is not a total killer), and Siena would be playing a home game.

The bottom line is that a victory in the conference tourney will make Selection Sunday a lot less stressful. While I still think Monmouth is a tournament team without the automatic bid, trusting the committee is not a fun thought.

Seeding

Let's say the Hawks are in (because they totally deserve to be). What kind of seed will they be looking at? From current projections, I have seen them as high as a nine, and as low as a 12. These projections were prior to the Iona game on Friday. If they get the nine seed, now probably unlikely, they will be matched up with an eight. As a 10, they get a seven. As an 11 they would get a four. And finally, if they are a 12, they get a five.

If they do not win the conference tournament, but still get in, I think an 11 or 12 is probably a given. A nine is probably not realistic. I do not see the committee being this generous; a 10 is a bit more realistic (maybe the committee loves them just as much as we all do). I wouldn't really want the nine anyways, because then they are looking right at a one seed in game two if they advance. I would actually be extremely happy with a 12.

The 12 is, historically, a good game to get an upset. A win in that game would likely set up a match-up with a four seed. Facing a five and a four may not be an easy task, but it is a lot better than having to go against a one seed in game two. Sure, you are likely going to have to face the one in game three, but having an extra game in between increases the chances that another team knocks off the one seed. A similar theory could be applied to getting an 11 seed, as the likely path is against a six, three and two before ultimately facing the one to close out the bracket.

With this season being the season of upsets in college basketball, there is bound to be plenty of them in the tournament. The longer you get before facing the top teams, the more likely they will be gone already and you won't have to face them at all. But if Monmouth does, they will just have to do that job of being the big upset of the tourney on their own (which would be pretty awesome).

Potential opponents

With the tournament still close to a month away, a lot of things can change. That includes the seeding for many teams. Let's take a look at the teams that are potential five and six seeds.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi (as of February 19):

five seeds -- Texas, Notre Dame, Arizona, Purdue
six seeds -- Utah, Baylor, Indiana, Texas A&M

CBS Sports Jerry Palm (as of February 19):

5 seeds -- Texas, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Dayton
6 seeds -- Arizona, USC, Indiana, Texas A&M

Three of those teams we can eliminate as first round opponents for the Hawks: Notre Dame, USC and Dayton. Since Monmouth has played these three teams, and beat two of them, the committee is not likely to let them face off so soon in the tournament.

Texas is a team that Monmouth matches up well against statistically. They would not be an ideal opening opponent, however. They are in what may be the most difficult conference, the Big 12. This means they will be extremely well tested and ready for tournament play. They have also been playing well as of late, and have a proven coach in Shaka Smart. So ideally, I would not want to see Texas as Monmouth's opening opponent.

Arizona and Purdue are two of the best rebounding teams in the nation. They have some serious big men in Tuscon and West Lafayette. That would scare me. Monmouth can offset that by creating turnovers, however. That would be a key to victory against Arizona or Purdue. The Wildcats and Boiler Makers have negative turnover margins, so if the Hawks could create points off turnovers, they could negate the rebound deficiency.

Utah is good for turning the ball over, and are not exactly known for playing defense. So if the Hawks face off with Utah, expect a high scoring game for sure. This is definitely a team I feel Monmouth is capable of beating. It would not be easy (which is true of almost any game), but a Monmouth win is clearly a potential outcome against Utah.

I think Baylor is the worst match-up the Hawks could end up with. They are a very good rebounding team, coming from potentially the best, most battle-tested conference. While I am not saying that Monmouth can't beat Baylor, I think it would be one of the worst possible teams they could be paired against due to match-ups.

Indiana is another team that turns the ball over; a very good thing for Monmouth. They have a highly efficient offense, but also lack defense. Indiana, like Utah, would result in a high scoring game with Monmouth. Turnovers would once again be key, and taking advantage of Indiana's poor defense to get easy looks is something Monmouth is well capable of.

Texas A&M is the team I am most hopeful to see as Monmouth's opening opponent. They are very similar statistically to Monmouth, with one major difference: free throws. Monmouth is a much better free throw team, something that will be very helpful come the tournament. Also add the fact that Texas A&M has been in a complete funk of late. Sure, they could snap out of it before the tourney, but this streak they are in shows how vulnerable they can be.

Kentucky is a young team that has also been on a roll. The Hawks have the edge from beyond the arc and free throw line. Kentucky would have a clear edge on the boards, however. It would not be an easy game, but Monmouth's up-tempo style could get in the heads of Kentucky's younger players. It would be a fun game, and one that the Hawks could pull out if they apply the pressure and overcome the rebound difference.

Obviously, other teams could be Monmouth's opening opponent. However, the above-mentioned teams sit in a position to face either an 11 or 12 seed, which is Monmouth's likely seeding. Certain teams would present easier match-ups, while others could prove to be highly difficult opponents for Monmouth. I would be very happy to see Texas A&M, and scared to see Baylor. It is all about the luck of the draw.

So there you have it: an early look at Monmouth and the NCAA Tournament. Selection Sunday is less than a month away, but there is still plenty of basketball to be played. The rest of the season is sure to be a fun one.