A seemingly never-ending stream of complaints about the MLB All-Star Game pop up about this time every year, monopolizing the airwaves of sports talk shows and bombarding the eyes and ears of baseball fans all across America.
Since 2003, the annual Midsummer Classic has determined which pennant winner will receive home-field advantage in that year's World Series. Essentially, what amounts to nothing more than an exhibition game in July decides who will be playing at home for Game 7 in October. And when the competitiveness between the two leagues seem questionable at times (see: Adam Wainwright throwing softballs to Derek Jeter), giving the All-Star Game this much weight seems ridiculous, right? Actually, the past tells us that it's not.
A quick look at the last 12 years shows us that Game 7s do not happen as often as we seem to think they do. In fact, only twice has the World Series come down to a winner-takes-all match-up, and the home team is just .500 in those games (St. Louis won in 2011, Kansas City lost in 2014). Because of Major League Baseball's 2-3-2 format, it is actually more likely that the team WITHOUT home-field advantage will play more games at home than away; the Fall Classic has finished after only five games three times since 2003, which is more times than it's gone to a Game 7. If the World Series ends after four or six games, then each team plays an even number of games at home, making "home-field advantage" a moot point.
Yes, teams that have secured home-field because their respective league won the All-Star Game in July have had much more success than their opponents, winning twice as many Series (8-4). Those who wish the Midsummer Classic didn't decide who starts at home in the fall will point to these numbers, and tell you that the otherwise meaningless result of the All-Star Game gives twice as much of an advantage to whoever plays at home in the World Series. In theory, they're correct.
One common solution that is constantly being suggested is that whichever team has the most wins in the regular season should receive home-field in the World Series. This is a great idea that would reward a team for their merits on the field and not because of the result of an exhibition game (maybe even one where only two of their own players started). It's a suggestion that I would wholeheartedly endorse if it weren't already happening enough. But it already is.
Just twice since 2003 has the team with the better regular-season record started the World Series on the road (St. Louis in 2004 and Texas in 2011). The Cardinals got swept by the Red Sox in their series, while the Rangers lost in Game 7 at St. Louis. Only once have the two teams in the Fall Classic tied for the most regular season wins (2013), and in that case, I don't see any argument against the All-Star Game being at least a tiebreaker at deciding who gets home-field advantage.
Since the All-Star Game began determining who would play Game 7 at home, 2011 was the ONLY year that a World Series went to seven games and was won by the home team who had a worse regular season record than their visitors. Plus, Texas had the Cardinals down to their final strike in Game 6 not once, but twice, and arguably should have won that Series anyway.
12 years is a relatively small sample size, considering that the World
Series began 112 years ago. But the numbers so far have shown that the
All-Star Game is doing a pretty good job of being fair in determining
who starts at home in October, the 2011 season notwithstanding. Only if
the results start favoring massively underwhelming teams in the playoffs, will Major League Baseball consider changing their stance on the
Midsummer Classic deciding home-field. We may start to see this if
Wild-Card teams keep consistently making it to the World Series, but
until then, there's no reason to fix what isn't actually broken.
I hope you enjoyed the All-Star Game. I hope you enjoyed watching the National League take on the Kansas City-er, the American League. But most of all, I hope you didn't fret over the result of the game affecting what happens this fall. It has been and will continue to be a fair way of deciding home-field the vast majority of the time.
After all, if it's the Royals who win the pennant again, then they'll actually have deserved the result they got!





















