We are twenty-some games into the 2016 season, and early performances are already shaping the future of Major League Baseball. Ample surprises have arisen, like Trevor Story's stunning debut, Robinson Cano's return to All-Star form, the early emergence of the Baltimore Orioles at the top of the AL East and the Astros' trouble getting out of the AL West's basement.
Other performances thus far have substantiated what we saw last year. The Chicago Cubs are very young and very, very good, Bryce Harper is the premier hitter in the majors (as of a three-homerun game last May), Jake Arrieta tends to be stingy when it comes to giving out hits and the NL East title is a three-team race between the Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. Wait. These standings cannot be right. The Phillies, ending the month just two and a half games out of first place, are showing surprising talent from a crop of young players.
While the Mets and Nationals are both sturdy teams with consistently clear upside, early analysis of the NL East's bottom feeders, the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins, provides insight into what the division will look like in years to come.
The Phillie Phanatic likes what he sees. With the 2008 championship core mostly sold off, this year's Phillies—though largely unfamiliar to fans—have performed winsomely. The pitching staff has been particularly shocking. Not a single man in the rotation started for Philadelphia a year ago, but new pitching coach Bob McClure has masterfully harvested the young arms' talent. Vincent Velasquez, acquired for closer Ken Giles last December, has become a mound presence teams should fear, now leading the team with a 4-1 record and 1.44 ERA. Maikel Franco, 23-year-old power-hitting third baseman, has also started playing more comfortably—and also dazzlingly—in the field. The Phillies are winning now, but their minus 22 run differential indicates that this year may end up a losing season. Still, expect the young, impressive new core to bring the City of Brotherly Love back into the playoffs in the next few years.
While the Phillies have worked their way from farce to force, the Atlanta Braves have done an outstanding job to solidify their spot as the worst team in the major leagues. The Braves won only five of 23 games in April, on pace for the worst winning percentage in the modern era. With the second worst run-producing offense and a pitching staff that gives up over five runs per game, Atlanta has dug itself deeply into a hole. Two young players, Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman, are presumably the future of the Braves unless the front office elects to clear house and rebuild. Reliance on these two warrants uncertainty, however. Teheran, the 25-year-old starting pitcher, had an impressive 2014 season with a 2.89 ERA but has been unable to replicate such a performance. In 2015, we saw a dramatic increase in walks admitted from Teheran, and he continues with the problem this year. Freeman, since hitting .319 in 2013, has had a decrease in batting average and increase in fly-outs each year since. The Braves will go nowhere soon if they continue on their present path.
The Miami Marlins are perhaps the most prepared of the three bottom teams in the division to take on the Nationals or the Mets for a playoff spot. Miami's offensive production so far this year has been better than the Phillies' or the Braves', and it even rivals the Nationals' run production by a difference of three runs. Miami's starting outfield, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton, will be the heart of the lineup for the foreseeable future. Left fielder Yelich has led the trio in hitting so far this year, with Stanton supplying power to the lineup with eight home runs. The most highly anticipated Marlins player this year, though, is starting pitcher Jose Fernandez, who returns from Tommy John surgery. Fernandez has a mediocre 4.08 ERA through April, and his walk per at bat ratio is the highest it has ever been; however, so is his strikeout ratio. Fernandez still has the ability he had in his Rookie of the Year season in 2013 continuing through 2014 into last year, before his injury. Though he may need time to get back to form, he is still the ace the Marlins need him to be. Miami's young stars have already blossomed. Now, with the chance to all play together—led by new manager Don Mattingly—Miami is poised to make a run for the playoffs each of the next several years.
April has shown that the era of two-team contention in the NL East is set to come to an end. The shocking talent and coaching in Philadelphia and the youthful core in Miami could reshape the division in the next few years, if not this season.
