Since the formation of India and Pakistan the two states have been violently disputing the border of the two countries. Skirmishes between the two have escalated violently and rapidly which is terrifying for the international community because both countries are nuclear powers. Neither country signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and are in the process of developing weapons grade nuclear material and delivery systems. The United States has been at the forefront of attempting to deescalate the conflict however; it does not come without a cost.

The exact date of when both countries acquired nuclear weapons and how many weapons each possess is unknown. India is a wealthy country with ties to the United States through trade and economic treaties. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, in 2008 the US and India entered into a joint venture called the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement. In exchange for curtailing its weapons grade nuclear material India was promised US technological aid in developing civilian nuclear programs and technology. India also allows inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) access to civilian nuclear sites in order to maintain the certainty that it is not producing more nuclear material and is not selling the technology to create nuclear material to countries that do not already have the capability. If India tests a nuclear weapon the treaty is voided and India loses all US aid. The treaty does not restrict what India can do with the material it produced prior to the signing of the document which is a key worry for its neighbor Pakistan.

Pakistan is not governed by any nuclear agreements. Despite its lack of support for nuclear arms limitation, the United States has funneled a colossal amount of money to Pakistan for counter-terrorism, combatting rampant drug trafficking, and bolstering the military. To put things in perspective, according to the BBC in 2009 President Obama signed a bill giving Pakistan a $9 billion aid package over several years. In 2014, according to the U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants (Greenbook), which is compiled by the USAID or US Agency for International Development, The US spent $264,182,358 in military aid to Pakistan. In contrast, the US spent $6,115,596 in military aid to India. In 2015 the US began exploring potential treaties with Pakistan to limit its nuclear program which would be a major shift in policy for Pakistan. In the past, the Pakistani government has been caught selling nuclear material and technology abroad to places like North Korea and Libya. At this time there have been no official announcements pertaining to a deal between the two states.

There are several countries who have not entered into the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty thus far. Pakistan, India and North Korea are known to have nuclear weapons, each having tested at least one. Israel is suspected of harboring a nuclear stockpile however it is unconfirmed. Saudi Arabia is suspected of having nuclear weapons but that suspicion is rather insubstantial thus far. Nuclear weapons have not spread to the southern hemisphere except for South Africa which is the only country to fully disarm.

There are few indicators as to why a country decides to go to war. Political scientists cite economic gains, acquiring resources, acquiring territory etc. as potential reasons but the data is inconclusive for most. The largest concrete indicator of conflict between two countries is that they share a border. If nuclear war between India and Pakistan isn’t unsettling enough, the United States has placed itself firmly between the two and stands to lose if war ever broke out.