For the last decade, James Shields has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. With the exceptions of 2009 and 2010, Shields has had an ERA under four. Once, in 2011, it was under three. He has exceeded 200 innings for nine seasons in a row, and he has had a K/BB ratio of better than three in all but three of his MLB seasons. He’s durable, and he’s consistent.
After spending his entire career in the American League, Shields signed a four year, $75M contract (with a $16M team option for a fifth year) with the San Diego Padres. After spending most of his career facing hitters in the American League East, Shields was expected to excel in the National League, as he not only got to face the opposing pitcher rather than guys like David Ortiz, but he got to pitch his home games at Petco Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the sport.
But something funny happened last year. After getting off to a very good start and posting a 2.90 ERA in the month of April, Shields stumbled in May and June, and was very inconsistent from month to month and start to start. He finished the season with a 3.91 ERA, his highest ERA since 2010. His control was especially spotty, and he walked 3.60 per nine innings, by far a career high (prior to that, his highest BB/9 was 2.68). Interestingly enough, however, Shields struck out over a batter per inning for the first time in his career.
Shields gave up four or more runs in 11 of his 33 starts last season. He gave up four or more runs only 14 times in the previous two years (68 starts). So, with that being said, there weren’t just one or two bad games that caused his ERA to spike. His control, on the other hand, seemed to get much worse as the season went on – he only had one game with four or more walks in the first three months of 2015, but nine such games from July 1 to the end of the season.
This year has been even worse for Shields. His walk rate is actually higher than last year (13 BB in 33 IP), but the strikeouts aren’t there like they were last year (20 SO). Shields actually has a very low BABIP of .232, a higher than normal LOB% of 78.5%, and a HR/FB of 11.1%, which is about average. His velocity is down slightly from last year, but nothing alarming.
Is he done? He has only started five games so far, and his track record shows that he should be fine. He has never been a power pitcher, so he doesn’t really have to learn how to pitch as he gets older. I don’t see his strikeout rate staying as low as it is. The walks are concerning, but I really don’t buy the idea that James Shields has suddenly forgotten how to throw strikes.
