Tensions between North Korea and the U.S. have reached new heights. Kim Jong-un has committed more missile tests in the past 6 years than his predecessors have in the past few decades. Donald Trump is promising “fire and fury,” giving me a new Game of Thrones reference. Let’s take a closer look.

Actual footage of Donald Trump channeling his "fire and fury"

Does North Korea have nuclear weapons?

North Korea does in fact have nuclear weapons. Under Kim Jong-un, North Korea has accelerated its nuclear weapons program. He has committed more nuclear tests since 2011 than under his father’s regime and his grandfather’s regime before him.

This does not, however, mean that North Korea can necessarily attack other countries with a nuclear bomb. To successfully nuke a country, a bomb must be made small enough to fit on a missile that can physically transport the weapon to its intended target. To make things more complicated, only an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can feasibly transport a bomb across vast distances, like an ocean. Creating a working ICBM and equipping it with a working bomb is no small feat. Until recently, North Korea could not accomplish both, but now U.S. intelligence believes that it has. For a long time, North Korea has had the capability to attack South Korea and Japan. It now has the capability to attack Hawaii and Alaska, and maybe even the mainland U.S.

So does this mean we’re in danger?

My gut answer is no. Let’s look at the facts. North Korea is an isolated country, one of the last few Communist totalitarian countries in the world. It is a pariah in the international community. China is its largest trading partner, depending on its neighbor for the necessities of everyday life. If a disaster were to strike North Korea and cause the country to implode, it would cause a refugee crisis for China. Of course, all countries in the region would be involved, but China would no doubt bear the brunt of the fallout, including the responsibility. No country in the world would want such a situation, particularly a refugee crisis (see the EU crisis). Therefore, it is in China’s geopolitical interest to maintain a stable environment. It will do what it can to stabilize the current situation.

North Korea is also a totalitarian monarchy. Since its founding after the Korean War, its rulers have been grandfather, father, and son, in that order, from Kim Jong-un’s point of view. Each transition to power no doubt involves a lengthy process in which the current ruler ensures that people loyal to him are put in charge. Kim Jong-un is young and inexperienced, compared to his forefathers, but it is not reasonable that he would throw his regime away to play at war. The United States military is the single strongest force in the world and we can easily destroy North Korea. Kim Jong-un knows this and could not reasonably attack a U.S. territory like Hawaii or Guam without expecting retaliation. North Korea periodically causes some diplomatic crisis, but it has never actually gone past the point of no return.

Ok, but that’s assuming everyone is reasonable. What about any wild cards?

Excellent point. Donald Trump is a huge wild card. This is part of the reason why so many people like him. While his unpredictability may be good for campaign rallies and speeches, it is bad for maintaining diplomacy. With Kim Jong-un, the world essentially has two inexperienced leaders at the helm of this crisis. It would fall on the leaders behind Kim Jong-un and Trump, their respective advisers, to ensure that nothing too drastic happens.