As we enter the final nine weeks of the election, we are beginning to see a tightening in the polls between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Two general election polls were released by Investor's Business Daily. The first was a head-to-head poll, which had Hillary up by one percentage point, 44-43. The second threw in Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. This poll had Trump and Clinton tied at 39 percent. Finally, as of September 3rd, The LA Times has Trump over Clinton, 45-42.4, in their daily general election poll.
This is not looking good for the Clinton Campaign. These polls show that she is starting to slowly lose her post-convention bump. Many will point out this may be due to the many email revelations. Though many of her supporters stand resolute, it seems that, while Trump remains about the same place, Hillary is sinking.
Many may point out Trump has the chance of winning. I would be bolder and predict Trump will win. It's still a bit early, but there has been something odd I've noticed over the past two years: The polling seems to be very off.
I first saw this in the 2014 midterm elections. For months, the polls showed that many of the Senate and House races would be close and that the Democrats would narrowly hold onto the Senate. And yet, to quote the New York Times, "An election that started as trench warfare...crested into a sweeping Republican victory." Defying all predictions, Republicans recaptured the Senate and expanded their hold in the House.
So it happens. People get things wrong. Maybe it was a one off.
And yet, it seemed that polls failed elsewhere. In the United Kingdom's 2015 election, many of the polls showed The Conservative Party and The Labor Party neck and neck. Even up to polls closing, many predicted that either party would need to form a coalition government with one of the smaller parties. When the exit polling began to show that the Conservatives would be able to form a government on their own, many people scoffed. The next morning, to the shock of everyone, the result supported the exit polls and left many pundits astounded.
In that same year, polls predicted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party would lose and that the rival party, the Zionist Union alliance, would narrowly defeat them. Lo and behold, Netanyahu and his party, despite the polling, won a majority and gave Netanyahu another opportunity to form a government.
Returning to the U.K. this year, we saw the polls wrong again on Brexit. On June 23rd, citizens of the U.K. went to the polls to decide whether to leave or remain in the European Union or not. Many polls had "Leave" and "Remain" neck and neck. Some even predicted that "Remain" would have a slight victory over "Leave". Once again, citizens of the United Kingdom awoke to the opposite: "Leave" narrowly defeated "Remain", 52-48.
The question is, why are so many of these polls off?
My guess is that people do not like to share unpopular opinions. We live in a time where, if someone disagrees with your opinion, they casually throw accusations of racism, sexism, homophobia, etc. Netanyahu is a very polarizing and controversial Prime Minister, so it's reasonable to believe that people would not like to share their positive opinions about him, lest they be accused of Zionism and hatred of Palestinians. Similarly, citizens of the U.K. who vote Conservative and vote Leave are likely to be framed as Islamophobic and racist. It's not surprising they would want to play it close to the vest.
Here in the United States, those on the Right get that same treatment, especially those who support Donald Trump. My prediction is that Trump is so polarizing, people will wait until they are safely inside a voting booth to reveal their true support.
This article is by no means me saying "HA HA the polls are completely false and Trump will win with 99 percent of the vote." Can these polls be accurate? Absolutely. There is no proof these polls are wrong. But with the inaccuracies of polling over the past few years, I feel it would be reasonable for anyone to take the polls with a grain of salt.
If I am certain of anything, Trump is gaining on Hillary. But I'm confident enough to say this: Even if by the smallest margins, Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.
