2020 has been nothing short of an unbelievable year. It is even more remarkable that this year is supposed to be a presidential election year and to many, it really doesn't feel like it.
We have been dealt with the coronavirus crisis, economic recession, and George Floyd protests. The real question is how these events will shape the landscape for the upcoming presidential election. On June 5, Joe Biden crossed the delegate threshold of 1991 needed to officially win the Democratic nomination. Although left with none to little challenges, Trump clinched the Republican nomination on March 17.
Biden doesn't have a running mate yet. Trump has already confirmed he will run alongside Pence again this year. The favorites to become Biden's prospective vice presidential nominee include Val Demings of Florida, Kamala Harris of California, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Although the pick typically doesn't matter as much traditionally, it will have a profound impact on the campaign. There have already been hints that Biden may only commit to serving one term as president.
This will most likely be one of the most consequential and remarkable elections of our lifetimes. It is a tail of two extremes, and is almost a flipped messaging from the previous election. A vote for Trump is a vote for the status quo. A vote for Biden is to elect the most liberal president ever, or at least since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Big questions continue to simmer about the possibility of debates. Will they be in-person? Virtual? Who knows what will transpire...
As far as statistics go, Biden holds an eight-point lead against Trump nationally in the Real Clear Politics aggregation. A major factor that still remains to be ironed out is the distribution of undecided voters. These 10-20% of voters are consequential every election cycle in determining who the President-elect will be. The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020 is that that we lack of a prominent third party challenger this election cycle. How that will impact the two-person race for the presidency really does remain to be seen.
Truth is, no one will really genuinely know who is going to win a presidential election until the debates take place. Ironically, the question of whether the traditional presidential and vice presidential debates will occur is one of the biggest of the election cycle. Until then, it's really up in the air.
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