With only a few days left until election night, I thought I’d share my 2016 Presidential Election Predictions.
Prediction:
I am predicting that Hillary Clinton will win 317-221. Although it seems like a landslide, it really only came down to three states: Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina, all of which I believe will go blue. This being said, I believe that a Trump presidency is plausible. Based on my prediction, he would only need to win Pennsylvania and Florida, which I believe he could do.
Here’s the map I believe could get Trump to the White House:
In my opinion, Florida and Pennsylvania could easily go Red as the polls have been trending to favor Trump in those states. However, with such a small margin, Clinton cannot pick off any states that are typically red. This would be Trump's most probable route to the presidency. It's a very small margin of error, but it is still there.
The Ohio Factor
No President has ever been elected without winning Ohio. That may or may not ring true for this election, but in my opinion, it looks like Trump will Ohio. He has had pretty solid margins in the state and the trend lines are in his favor.
The Utah Factor
Who knew such a small (in regards to the electoral college) and typically red state could possibly tip the election. However, with the strong Mormon population, and general dislike for Trump in the state, independent Evan McMullin has seen a surge in the polls. He often polled higher Clinton, and in some polls, was even winning Utah. If McMullin won Utah, that could be enough to cost Trump the election. That being said, I don’t believe McMullin can win Utah, and his surge in the polls was only temporary.
In conclusion, Hillary can afford to take hits in swing states like Nevada and Ohio if she can win the other swing states. The swing states that are already in her favor. However, if Trump voters can turn out in Florida and Pennsylvania, he could have a shot at the White House.
