It is easy to say that last Tuesday represented the downfall of the modern Republican Party. It is easy to say that we will all move to Canada and that World War III will be upon us. It is easy to say that Mad Max will become more relevant that we ever wished it to be. But, this ease and humor betrays the reality of the massive boondoggle that the 2016 Presidential Election has become.
The cause for this paranoia is that Donald Trump carried 7 states out of 11 in the Republican Primaries, giving him a large lead and possibly indicating things to come. However, don’t misinterpret these results for two reasons.
1) Where Trump won, he didn’t win by majority, instead, he won by a plurality or he simply secured the most votes. If we had runoff elections, none of this would have mattered (thanks winner take all). What these victories do represent is that the crowded four men (Carson dropped out) is allowing Trump to barely skirt by and command more delegates and states under his belt. If Cruz and Rubio could pile their delegates together, then the rest of the party could more easily coalesce behind one Anti-Trump candidate. However, based on the enormous egos of Cruz and Rubio, this scenario probably won’t happen soon enough to stop Trump.
2) Cruz’s performance (he won three states) indicates a strong delegate stance that could easily overtake Trump by gaining a few more states. However, because of Cruz’s Tea Party background, his command over moderate independent voters would be seriously in question. So, Trump would be defeated, but a Democrat would certainly win the White House, which would spell disaster for the current Republican Congress as it would result in a repeat of the Obama years.
Ultimately, if Trump holds through the rest of the campaign and wins, which he probably will based on his past poll strength and visibility, the Republican Party will split at the seams. Modern Conservatism will, once again, be completely redefined as to prevent such absurd people from gaining such power again. We could be facing a good old fashion realigning election.
Typically, the Democratic contests were significantly less dramatic, but maybe that’s because a golden-tongued sociopath isn’t threatening to eviscerate the party by shattering its coalition. Hillary Clinton, unsurprisingly, secured seven states, blasting Bernie Sanders out into the stratosphere in terms of the delegate count. Clinton’s success is based on her strong performance in South Carolina where black voters eagerly pushed her lightyears ahead of Sanders. Most of the Super Tuesday states were southern states, so her success is more reassuring than celebratory. However, her victory, while resounding, isn’t absolute. She lost a number of Northern states like Minnesota and Colorado, which have large scores of white liberals, a key constituency that Clinton has a large problem with because of her spotty record and image. Not only that, Sanders has definitely pushed Clinton to the left on many issues (civil rights, income equality, regulations), but not the big ones that are coming to play with the rise of anti-establishment populists: campaign finance and corruption. These new leftist views would undeniable damage Clinton in a general election, and not addressing the real point of concern for many voters will only heat the flames. So, yes, Hillary Clinton did win Super Tuesday. Yes, she will probably be the nominee. But, this primary has severally weakened her standing, opening the floor to any moderate Republican with enough conservative tolerance to eviscerate her come November.
Super Tuesday is one of the most important predictors of primary success. Historically, everyone who has won Super Tuesday has gone on to win the election. Hopefully, this year, that isn’t the case.
