Russia made headlines in early August when it deployed its new anti-aircraft system to Crimea as well as when it conducted its first strikes on Syrian targets from bases in Iran. The moves represent continued attempts by President Vladimir Putin to aggressively reassert Russian influence on the World Stage. However, Mr. Putin should consider reevaluating his country’s foreign policy objectives in Ukraine and Syria. Here’s why:
Russia Can Not Afford Continued International Sanctions
The Russian economy already suffers from severe structural problems such as wide-spread corruption, a declining population, over reliance on petroleum exports, and excessive control by the state. In 2015, The World Bank reported that Russian GDP contracted by 3.7 percent. Furthermore, since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict in 2014, large amounts of capital have been flowing out of the country as foreign investors seek to limit their exposure to Russian markets. If Mr. Putin is interested in revitalizing his nation’s economy, his foreign policy should be aimed at convincing Europe and the United States to lift sanctions against Russia. While Mr. Putin may be forced to make concessions on his foreign policy toward Ukraine, The benefits will be well worth it. In fact, According to the Research and Development Corporation (RAND), removal of the sanctions alone could boost Russian GDP growth by up to 1.4 percent.
Russian Operations in Syria Have Not Produced Their Desired Effects
Last year, Russia began an aggressive air campaign against forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s rule. Mr. Putin assumed that supporting Assad from the air would allow Syrian forces to gain momentum against the rebels. However, Assad’s military has shown that it simply does not have the resources to fully take advantage of the Russian air campaign. The campaign to retake Aleppo highlights the deficiency of the Syrian military very clearly. Despite intense bombing from Russian planes based in both Syria and Iran, the Assad regime still cannot regain control of the city. The lack of progress in Syria has inspired some defense officials in Moscow to recommend that Russia pursue a negotiated settlement with the United States. Mr. Putin would be wise to take their advice. Should Russia choose not to cooperate with the U.S., it risks ensnaring itself in a potentially long, drawn-out, and expensive conflict. In short, Mr. Putin should consider cooperating with the US in order to prevent his country from expending precious military resources in a long term conflict.
Conclusions
Mr. Putin’s aggressive policy towards Ukraine and Syria has had significant negative effects on Russia as a whole. However, there are few signs that he will change his policy in the near future. In the meantime, the United States and its European allies should continue to apply both diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia in order to make clear to Mr. Putin that continuing his current foreign policy is not in his country’s best interest.
