As Selection Sunday, my favorite holiday of the year, took place this previous Sunday, many college basketball fans and students are printing out numerous copies of the brackets and starting to fill out their winning one. I have been playing the odds, luck, skill or whatever you call it of March Madness for years now, having some good brackets and some brackets that end up crumpled in the trash can next to my econ exam. This year is a tournament to watch. The excitement of seeing if Kentucky can stay golden, to watch if your school is going as far as they can go, and the concept of Murphy's Law finding its way in the tournament; anything that can happen, will happen.
With the NCAA Tournament being such a big deal, I have jotted down some pointers to help you fill out your bracket. We all want to have the least red marks when we finish and be the person on top when it is all over.
A 16 seed will not, I emphasize, WILL NOT beat a 1 seed.
The one seed plays the sixteen seed for a reason. The only time a 16 seed advanced past a 1 seed was in the Women's NCAA Tournament in 1998, Harvard beating Stanford. So do not be that guy who thinks it will happen, because it will not. The number one seeds this year with Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin and Duke, whom are solid teams to, without a doubt, make it to the round of 32.
The odds of the 15 seed.
We did not see it last year, but more recently has one 2 seed in the bracket been beaten by a 15 seed. In 2013 it was 15 seeded Florida Gulf Coast making their tremendous run in the tournament and in 2012 you had Lehigh shockingly beating Duke and Norfolk State beating Missouri. Take a risk and pick a 15 seed. This year, the only fate I see for a 15 seed are the New Mexico State Aggies. They are putting up around 70 points a game, shooting just about 50% from the field, and Remi Barry averaging about 13 points a game. This should be a game to watch against Kansas.
Mix up the rankings in the Final Four.
Since the bracket expanded to its size of 64 teams, only around 47% of number 1 seeds has advanced to the Final Four, and only one time, in 2008, has all number 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. Upsets are prevalent in the Tournament, so watch as one or two 1 seeds falls. A number 1 seed like Duke, who lost to NC State (Go Pack) at their home and the next game lost to Miami at Cameron Indoor, is a contender that could face elimination to a hot shooting team like Gonzaga in their region.
Cinderellas are not forever.
Once you pick your 15, 14, 13, or 12 seed to advance to the round of 32, it is in your best interest to knock them off there. Only once has a team like Florida Gulf Coast who was seeded 15 in 2013, has advanced to as much as the Sweet Sixteen. You can brag a bit for picking the upset, but do not get too cocky. The lower number seeds I could see advancing are 14th seed Georgia State, who is 47th in PPG with 73 a game and 14th in FGP with .484, 13th seed UC Irvine their with 7' 6" center, Mamadou Ndiaye, who averages about 10 PPG and 2 BPG could be trouble for Louisville, and 12th seed Buffalo with Justin Moss with about 18 PPG and 9 RPG, playing well against the press and finishes strong.
The Close Match-Ups.
The hardest pick is the 8 seeds v. 9 seeds or 7 seeds v. 10 seeds. The 9 seeded teams have won just a smudge over 50% of their first games over 8 seeds. Flip a coin, research more or pick by the mascot, up to you. 7 seeds win around 60% of the time against 10 seeds, but do not do much damage to the Tournament after the first round… unless you count seeded 7 UConn winning the Big Dance last year. Teams like NC State, who beat Duke and Boise State at home and UNC at the Dean Dome, and Purdue, with resumé builders like wins against Ohio State, Indiana and Iowa, are seeds you will want to advance.
The Bracket Breaker.
Maybe it is because I go to school at NC State, or it is because I have been through the ups and downs of the Cardiac Pack, but do not doubt the skill of NC State. They first have to play LSU, then play Villanova to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, which seems difficult. NC State, faced the 5th hardest schedule while beating the number 1 seed Duke in the Tournament at home, winning away at Louisville and away at Chapel Hill, and beat UNC while forcing the Tarheels to an all-time Dean Dome low score of 46 points. With Cat Barber scoring at his best and finishing swiftly to the basket, Ralston Turner heating up from three-point land, Trevor Lacey making his shots and BeeJay Anya & Malik Abu taking control of the paint, NC State could be a name you see in the Sweet Sixteen and the Elite Eight. Go Pack!
Besides the players.
Two big things you have to consider in the Tournament is a team's hot streaks and how well they do on the road. When considering a Final Four contester or a winner, consider if their record has been bumpy or if their losses were in the beginning of the season and they have been undefeated since then. A team has to win six straight games in order to be crowned in the tournament. Also consider their away game record. If they are undefeated at home, that's great and all, but they will not be playing at home for the most part in the Tournament. See what teams react negatively to an outsider's playing field.
The Home Team.
If your school is in the Tournament and they are not against a team like Kentucky who is favored to go all the way, advance them to the round of 32, you gotta. Bite the bullet and maybe things will pay off.
