Guys, we need to talk about Donald Trump. The once joke of a candidate is now on a clear path to nabbing the GOP nomination for President. According to CNN's Political Prediction Market, Trump has a 78 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee. He has had strong performances in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada primaries. So what happened? When did he make the switch from strictly entertainment to a serious presidential possibility? And what was everybody else doing while this was happening?
First, let's take a look at his campaign. Say what you will about his policies, but it is hard to debate the fact that Trump is a media mastermind. Elizabeth Wilner, senior vice president at Kantar Media Intelligence, a company that tracks political ad spending said, "He has gotten hundreds of millions of dollars in free publicity just off of his message, his speeches, his social media presence." While other candidates struggle to keep their names in the news, Trump garners attention for simply being Trump. His manipulation of the media means that he doesn't have to spend personal money on advertisements. It also means that he doesn't have to go around courting reporters. They come to him. He claims to be $35 million under budget, and although it's impossible to actually confirm this, it's not surprising that his campaign is cost effective. Thanks to his brash personality and unsettling comments, he continues to receive a ton of free coverage. He has gained complete control over the media, and in true Donald Trump fashion, it's hard to see him letting up any time soon.
It's not just the media who are caught up in the Donald Trump "phenomenon." In a bold political move that left many Republicans stunned, New Jersey Governor, and former candidate Chris Christie, recently endorsed Donald Trump. Stuart Roy, with Strategic Action Public Affairs, criticized Christie's decision saying, "He was a serious federal prosecutor, he was a serious governor, he was a serious presidential candidate and now this is an un-serious endorsement." While Christie's motives are unclear, many are assuming that this is his attempt at staying politically relevant, especially with his time as governor coming to an end. As a more well known Republican party member, Christie's decision to support Trump holds some weight. The most important consequence of the endorsement is that it undermines the GOP mainstream's efforts to prop Marco Rubio up as a worthy opponent to take on Trump.
A possible explanation for Trump's popularity is that Americans generally tend to prefer soft news. We like scandals, we like to be shocked, and we like to be entertained. Donald Trump is more of an entertainer than a politician, and for some, this is exactly what makes him so appealing. He is changing the way Americans look at politics. He has completely revamped political norms and how we expect presidential races to be conducted. With most of the general public unhappy with the current state of the country, it's not difficult to understand why some are turning to Trump. The political, social, and economic climate of America is the perfect setting for someone like Trump to come in and stir up the status quo. In addition, he has successfully managed to separate himself from all other candidates. We hold the others to a different standard than we do him. We allow him to say and do things that no other candidate would get away with. Somewhere in our minds we still don't see Donald Trump as a threat.
Regardless of your political ideologies and personal beliefs, it's important that we all understand that Donald Trump's campaign is not a joke. He is a candidate that needs to be taken seriously. It's safe to assume that we all thought Trump would slip up. He would have his time in the limelight, but it would eventually come to an end and he would self-destruct. But nothing Trump says or does shocks us, making it highly unlikely that his campaign will come crashing down. It's a strong possibility that he will become the Republican nominee for president, and after South Carolina, it is likely that he will face Hillary Clinton, rather than Bernie Sanders. It's one thing to enjoy being entertained, but it's another to let that cloud our judgement of what kind of candidate and person we want running our country.
