Why The US May Prevail In Its Trade War With China

Why The US May Prevail In Its Trade War With China

The Chinese government may soon be faced with the option of either either maintaining the Communist Party's policies or acting in the interest of regular Chinese workers

156
views

This summer, I wrote an article for the The Odyssey Online outlining why President Donald Trump should cease the United States's trade war with China immediately because of the harm that it would do to the US economy. However, given recent developments in the Chinese economy, as well as the testimony of well-known Chinese economists, the exact opposite may be the case. Perhaps it is China who should be making concessions to defuse this trade war because it imperils the developing country's economic growth.

In September, the British multinational Barclays investment bank released a statement saying that they believe that if the trade war continues to worsen to the point where everything exchanged commercially between the US and China gets slapped with tariffs from the two countries, the value of the merchandise traded will be decreased by approximately $156.5 billion. This is particularly bad news for China, where recent data shows that exports amount to nearly 20% of China's GDP as opposed to just under 12% for the US. In fact, Michael Gapen, an economist for Barclays, believes that losses to China could amount to "1.0% of GDP," with Chinese domestic consumers being particularly worse off, since they would have to pay higher prices on imports from the US.

The Chinese government's responses to the trade war clearly show its growing desperation at the prospect of slowing economic growth. Faced with trade war-related issues, including 2018 Shanghai stock values falling by 22.3% and a weakening in China's "export growth," the government is taking desperate action to stimulate the economy; Chinese leader Xi Jinping's administration is frantically announcing tax cuts, bank deregulations (the Chinese central bank has "slashed" bank reserve requirements "for the fourth time this year"), and plans for more expenditures on infrastructure. These actions clearly show that the Chinese government is concerned about its future economic prospects. What could a solution to China's worries be? According to economist Sheng Hong, director of Beijing's Unirule Institute of Economics, the Chinese government should give up trying to directly control the economy and run it into a crash course with the US's demands for freer trade relations. Mr. Sheng argues that Xi Jinping's tendency to "stand his ground" on international conflicts is becoming "costly" for China and that China should comply with the US government's demands and eliminate the "unfair competition" in trade from China's state-run industries. This will benefit the people of China, as a sizable portion of China's population is employed in the China's private (not state-run) sector and they would benefit from the increased productivity that would come with less state-run competition. However, Xi has shown little sign of backing down from his domestic policies and only time will tell whether or not this reticence will hurt the Chinese economy even more than what is already expected.

Popular Right Now

11 Things I Want My Parents To Know When I Come Home From College

An open letter to Mom and Dad, from a college student that isn’t a kid anymore.
12730
views

Aight, listen.

Put on your reading glasses and blow that wisp of graying hair off your face (yes, Mom, I see it, you’re not fooling anybody), because I’ve got some things to say.

I just completed three months worth of college. C-O-L-L-E-G-E. For roughly 90 days I fed myself, I somewhat successfully did my own laundry, I made my own life-or-death decisions when it came to college parties, and I even managed to fit in schoolwork — most of the time.

The point is, I might not have become a fully fledged, mature adult, but three months of newfound independence is like finding out that Santa, the Tooth Fairy, and the Easter Bunny aren’t real all at the same time — you do a lot of growing up, fast.

So, almost-adult to adult, here are 11 things that I want you to know when I come home for the holidays:

1. First and foremost, I get it.

I’m not in college anymore, there are going to be rules again, you pay all my bills — right. I understand. Please, no long speeches. No constant reminding. I’ve been making predictions and inferences since 2nd grade, so believe me, I’m pretty sure I’ve got the gist of what’s going on in this story.

2. I may or may not have transformed into a creature of the night.

Yeah, no, I’d probably go ahead and define myself as nocturnal. In college, everything starts at night, like parties, house meetings, the will to do homework — it’s completely different. So if you find me doing the dishes at 3:00 a.m., it’s not because I was feeling generous, it’s because Netflix got boring and I had nothing better to do.

3. Curfew or nah? Nah.

Now that we got the whole nocturnal thing out of the way, let’s get something straight. I can’t tell you how many times I stayed up with friends until the wee hours of the morning, how many times parties kept me out of the dorm for the entire night, or how many times I went on late night runs to get food. I know that the house is not a hotel, but you have to understand that the night is primetime to hang out with friends or take that random McDonald’s run. So please, loosen the reigns a little. I’ll be quiet, I promise — I’ve got three months of tiptoeing around a sleeping roommate under my belt.

4. I love you, but I love sleep more.

You guys are great, but my b(a)ed and I need some alone time. Keep the door closed.

5. I’m ok! That was just me screaming in relief at the feeling of not having to wear shower sandals anymore.

6. Be a bro and spot me? I’m poor.

I know, I know, I said I wasn’t going to be that college kid. But it’s the holiday season, and I know you guys have missed me, soooo how’s 20 bucks sound?

7. A gift card to Starbucks would make for a great Christmas present.

Put yourself in my shoes. I’m a slightly impoverished neo-adult with a mild-to-moderate coffee addiction, and I sleep all day. Plus, Starbucks has those new red cups — I’m telling you, coffee tastes great with a hint of controversy.

8. Chores, shopping for groceries, driving people around — I got this.

Let me take some extra responsibility. After three months on my own, I want to show you that I can handle it, that I can pass for being a competent adult. So don’t let me slack off and mill about, challenge me to help the family out as an adult instead of a dependent kid. I’ll make you proud, I promise.

9. If I want to go to that concert or party, I’m going to go.

Let’s be real here. In college, if I wanted to go skydiving or bar hopping or sleep over in a girl’s dorm room, I could I have done it, no questions asked, and you guys would have been none the wiser. So if I want to do something fun, I’m truly open to your thoughts and opinions, because your advice is what guides me every time I go out. But I’m not a dumb teenager anymore, so trust me and let me do my own thing, ok?

10. You guys are awesome, but so are the friends I haven’t seen in a long time.

Yes, I know, it always seems like I care way too much about hanging out with friends. But three months is a lot to catch up on, and I’ve missed them like crazy.

11. But no matter what, I’ve missed you so much, and I’m glad to be home.

Even if I’m stubborn, too argumentative, or seem eager to go back to college, you have to realize how good it feels to be home again. There have been so many times in the past three months that I’ve felt unbearably weak and vulnerable and wanted nothing more to call you guys and ask you for your amazing advice, but didn’t do it because I wanted you to think that I was ok. You are my greatest teachers, and I can never thank you enough for all you do for me. I love you.

Cover Image Credit: _elemenoh_ / Flickr

Related Content

Connect with a generation
of new voices.

We are students, thinkers, influencers, and communities sharing our ideas with the world. Join our platform to create and discover content that actually matters to you.

Learn more Start Creating

I've Been Skeptical About The Holidays For A Couple Years, But I'm Ready For Them This Year

Finally decided to stop calling the Grinch my animal spirit.

274
views

The holidays have finally reached us, and I think I speak for many of us when I say that we are excited to be able to breathe from school and spend time with our loved ones -- and to eat food, tons of it.

media1.giphy.com

But for some others, the holidays are a time that reminisces bad moment in their lives. They become a time of sadness and dark pasts. Loved ones have different faces, and homes, where good wishes are shared, have different walls painted a different color.

About four years ago, I left my country and moved to the US -- new traditions and adventures. The holidays weren't easy for my first year. I achingly missed my parents and family from Honduras. The holidays here didn't seem as exciting without all the people I had spent them countless times before.

In Honduras, on Christmas Eve we would always go visit my grandmother from my dad's side for lunch. In the afternoon, I would have dinner with my parents and brother, and then we'd go to church. After that, we would always go to my mom's family to receive midnight and have a sort of party. That was something that I always looked forward to.

The holidays here weren't as adventurous as they were over there. I would stay all day home and wait till food was served and just spend it with my family until we all decided it was time to go to sleep. They seemed pretty dull for the first two years. But now, my boring, asocial ass is fascinated with the simpleness of the holidays.

Sure, here people take the holidays more seriously than we did in Honduras, but I never assimilated. I began seeing the holidays as another day, except that deliciously exquisite food was going to be served that day. It was not like my mom's food nor like my grandmother's. Everything was different, and this difference weighed heavily on me.

Fast-forward to the present day, and I'm still kind of skeptical about the holidays. I don't get the spirit anymore, and till today, it still hasn't hit me. The only thing that I can think of is that the year is soon going to be over.

The one thing I am excited for is being able to celebrate the holidays with the new family I've been slowly building. My partner is accepted and loved by my relatives, and they invited him over to spend Christmas with us. One of my new best friends was also invited. Being able to spend this time with them kinda shines a glimmer on the idea that I have of the holidays.

This new fresh addition to my life have given me many blissful pleasures this 2018, and I know that with them, I'll probably begin to cherish the holidays a little bit more.

media2.giphy.com








Related Content

Facebook Comments