Currently, one of the biggest stories in the election cycle is that Trump is polling well in the rust belt. On Wednesday, September 14, a Bloomsburg poll had Trump leading by five. Other recent polls show Trump ahead in Florida, and within margin of error in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. All of this is great news for Trump. These are the states Republicans need to win if they want to regain the White House.

So why is this not the real story? Well, let’s look at some other states and what they’re polling.

The three states I want to look at in particular are Utah, Georgia and Arizona. Usually, these three states are locks for the GOP. Arizona has not gone blue since 1996. Georgia has not gone blue since 1992. Utah has not gone blue since 1964. All three of these states have been in play at some point or another during the election cycle. Mitt Romney won Utah by 48 percent. At one point, Trump’s lead there was only 7 percent. On Sunday, a Wall Street Journal poll came out that shows Trump up 2 percent in Arizona, and up by the same margin in Georgia.

I understand that Trump’s plan has been to attract the “disenfranchised vote.” These are people who live in states that used to be known for their industrial might. States like Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia and Michigan, where many people used to work in the coal, steel or automobile industries. Now that those jobs are no longer in those states, many of the people who relied on those jobs (they tended to be Democrats back in the day) feel left behind by the government and Democratic Party. So now Trump is trying to court that demographic by promising them he will bring their industrial jobs back.

The problem with Trump’s plan is that he has left behind the GOP’s conservative base. These are the people in Georgia, Arizona and Utah. They have been with the GOP through thick and thin. These conservatives might not have loved Mitt Romney or John McCain because they weren’t conservative enough. Nevertheless, many of those conservatives still voted for them. Now, not only is Trump not conservative in the slightest, but he has also shown that he is the least likable candidate in the history of American politics.

To make things worse, Trump has not shown the capacity to make nice with the most prominent conservative from the primaries, Ted Cruz, as he had him booed off the stage at the RNC. Combine that with Trump never showing us that he can stand for principle, and that his only consistent position had been anti-free trade, and he has made it very difficult for conservatives to vote for him.

Now the Clinton campaign partially disemboweling itself in recent weeks, and Trump starting to show some discipline. Hillary has herself in a sizable hole, and it will be difficult for her to climb out of it (though I do not rule out that possibility). Although Trump has seen a bump in the polls, that is not because he greatly improved, it’s because of Hillary’s aforementioned blunders. Trump is still alienating much of the GOP’s conservative base and has done little to appeal to them. I fear what direction Trump is steering the GOP in, and whether the conservative base will be left in the dust.