I am a die-hard Jets fan, however, I am going to try my hardest to eliminate bias from this analysis. Also, this analysis is assuming that Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the regular season, this being the suspension that was upheld by NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, on Tuesday.
To start, we have to think about the immediate effect this suspension will have on the Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to step in and take control of the Pats offense for the first four games. This means that OC, Josh McDaniels, will have to adjust and simplify the playbook. On the bright side, Garoppolo shows promise. In 2014, he played in six games, completing 19 of 27 passes for one touchdown and zero interceptions. Now, that isn’t a lot of attempts at all, but Garoppolo showed tons of athleticism and the lack of an interception is always a plus.
The Patriots start off the season playing the Steelers in Foxborough. The Steelers are going to have a chip on their shoulder this season after their disappointing exit from the playoffs last season. In addition, the Steelers are very dangerous on offense, and I don’t know if Garoppolo and the Patriots’ offense will have enough firepower to keep up.
Next, the Patriots travel to Buffalo to face the new and improved Bills with new head coach, Rex Ryan. The Bills already had the #4 ranked defense last year, and then they went and added a defensive genius in Ryan. Not to mention, Ryan has a knack for giving Belichick and the Pats a hard time. Last year, with the entirely unimpressive New York Jets, Ryan was able to bring both games against the Patriots down to the wire, losing 25-27 and 16-17 with both games lost on last-second missed field goals. And that was with Tom Brady. Good luck, Jimmy.
The next team on the schedule for the Patriots should be the easiest. The Jaguars finished 3-13 last season, failing to improve on their 4-12 record from 2013. This being Garoppolo’s third game, he should be settled in and able to take advantage of this weaker opponent.
Going into week five, the Patriots should have their offense with Jimmy Garoppolo figured out. In week five, they play the Cowboys. The Demarco Murray-less Cowboys are still a very good team, and I see this game coming down to the wire. To me, this game will decide if the Patriots start their season 1-3 or 2-2. In terms of preparing for this game, I have to wonder if there will be any distraction at practice with the return of Tom Brady on the horizon.
We also have to keep in mind that this Patriots team and coach went 11-5 in 2008 when Tom Brady tore his ACL. Matt Cassel stepped in and started a football game for the first time in his career since high school. The bottom line is the Patriots know how to win.
What makes this suspension even more untimely for the Pats, is the fact that all other three teams in the AFC East have improved immensely. The Jets saw the return of All-Pro corner and ex-Patriot Darelle Revis and his old partner in crime, Antonio Cromartie. The Jets have the personnel to put together a more than formidable defense under new defensive minded head coach Todd Bowles. The Buffalo Bills have acquired additions on the offensive end, as well. For example: RB Lesean McCoy, TE Charles Clay, WR Percy Harvin, and OL Richie Incognito. Lesean McCoy is an important addition for the Bills because he can now give their offense an identity, and we all know that Rex Ryan loves to run the ball. Miami is yet another team that is hoping to make positive changes in the 2015 season. Ryan Tannehill has incrementally and significantly improved every season so far in his career, Tannehill is also the only other franchise quarterback in the AFC East other than Tom Brady. Both the Bills and Jets still have huge quarterback issues to sort out.
With all of this said, it is very possible that Tom Brady could be handed either a .500 or losing record. This will temporarily slow the Patriots down but won’t cripple them. With Tom Brady being as dominant as he is, I still see the Patriots winning the division. However, I see one if not multiple teams in the division making a serious push at knocking them off their throne, and I see whoever that wildcard winner is, (whether it’s the Jets, Dolphins, or Bills) being a serious playoff contender.
