Finally. Fantasy football is back. My addiction can be fed once again. I'm not sure what about it makes it so addicting. Maybe it's because I'm completely obsessed with making a perfect team. Maybe it's because I'm subconsciously making up for my lack of athletic ability. Whatever the reason is, I'm just glad it's back. Here are some tips, tricks and thoughts about the 2015 Fantasy Football season.
Draft Running Backs early!
Seriously, this is one of the most important things to do in your fantasy draft. You ideally should draft your two starting Running Backs in rounds one or two, even in round three. You could draft a top 10 Running Back in round 1, a top 10 receiver in the second, and a decent #2 Running Back like Frank Gore, Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris or Justin Forsett in round three.
I did a draft a week ago for my keeper team. I kept Antonio Brown (and forfeited my first round pick) and got Demarco Murray in the second. I drafted Randall Cobb in the third, thinking I could get someone like Carlos Hyde in the fourth. Jonathan Stewart was my best option when I got there. While I'm sure he'll have a decent season, especially in the wake of Kelvin Benjamin's ACL tear, my depth behind him is Todd Gurley and Ryan Matthews. I might be screwed.
I felt like this when I had no choice but to draft Stewart.
Unless you get the best of the best, wait on Quarterbacks and Tight Ends.
Unless you can get Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck or Rob Gronkowski, wait until you get your running backs and receivers figured out. Take last year, for example. Rodgers had nearly 400 fantasy points, Luck had about 380, and Big Ben in third had almost 350. There is an immediate drop off in fantasy production after Rodgers and Luck. If you draft a QB too early, you might miss out on getting your quality starting WRs and RBs.
Same goes for Tight Ends. Unless you get Gronk, there is an immediate talent drop off. In my draft, I waited until Round 10, where I drafted Delanie Walker (the eighth highest scoring TE last year). While you should probably aim to get a TE a little earlier than that, it's still possible to wait until later in your draft for your staring TE. I drafted Walker after I drafted four starting quality Wide Receivers, three Running Backs, Big Ben and Phillip Rivers.
I'd like to think waiting on Tight Ends worked. Out of the four leagues I won last year (I was in six, so yeah, I definitely have a problem), Jason Witten was my highest picked Tight End at like the sixth off the board. But I'll try that strategy out again this year, and I probably won't even make the playoffs.
Draft your kicker and defense last.
Every year, there will be a kicker or two that has an incredible season, but until he starts playing, you have no clue who it'll be. Last year, the top two kickers were Steven Gostkowski at 170 points and Cody Parkey at 162 points. After that, the difference between the #3 and #10 kickers was 12 points, or .75 points a game. So realistically, you will easily be able to find a quality starting kicker in the last two rounds, as the top 10 guys all score pretty close to the same number of points.
Defenses are fairly similar except that they are far less consistent. Two years ago, the top two fantasy defenses were the Seahawks at 201 points and the Chiefs at 200. Last year? The Seahawks scored 148, for sixth best in fantasy football, and the Chiefs only 120 points, for 17th best. Last year the Eagles were first at 183 points, but the year before that were 16th at 117 points. The thing that sucks about defenses in fantasy football is that you really can't predict a good or bad fantasy performance based on the defense's on-field rating. Last year, the Eagles defense was the best in fantasy, but the fifth worst on the field. A defense scores six points for any touchdown they score, so if a defense scores more touchdowns than usual, they will have a monster fantasy season, regardless of the other statistics that really come to play on the field. You're better off picking a defense that is usually in the top 10 (Bills, Patriots, Texans, and just about any NFC West team), and hoping to pick up that one-hit wonder defense after the season has started.
Remember, though, that fantasy defenses also include special teams, so a great return man (Darren Sproles) can make up for a statistically lousy defense (Philadelphia).
Don't be afraid to take a potential sleeper with a late round pick.
With my 11th pick, I drafted Vernon Davis. I picked him because I think he's primed for a bounce-back season. Last year, he held out of training camp, looked terrible when he came back, and had injuries throughout the season. Now, he looks like he did two years in training camp. That was the season where he was the second best TE in fantasy football. He easily has the potential to be a top three or five tight end. But if he's not? I'll drop him and keep playing Delanie Walker instead. You're going to drop players throughout the season anyway to pick up a new kicker, defense, or a guy, like Odell Beckham, who comes out of nowhere to become a starting quality player.
Before I end this article, I figured I should predict some thoughts that we will all have throughout this upcoming season.
Week 1: Wow! This third string receiver scored two touchdowns this week! I'm going to pick him up and start him next week!
Week 2: Oh. He had one catch for five yards this week.
Week 3: And no catches this week. Oh well. Dropped.
Week 4: Well, I thought this running back would have a breakthrough season. I'll keep starting him, just in case.
Week 5: Thirty yards and a fumble? That's all right. He'll be better next week.
Week 6: Nope. He sucks. I'm 2-4 because of this guy! He's dropped!
Week 7: Three touchdowns and 100 yards? Finally! I'm going to pick him up again!
Week 8: An ACL tear? Well, there goes my fantasy season.
Week 9: Half my players have a bye week? I didn't plan that out well at all.
Week 10: All right, fantasy playoffs are approaching. I'm 5-6, let's see what I can do.
Week 11: Wow! I won by 30 points! I'm going to be 6-0 from here on out!
Week 12: I lost by 50 points? OK, well 5-1 isn't so bad.
Week 13: I lost by 40? Well, I guess there's still hope.
Week 14: I won by 1.3 points! A victory is a victory! I'm in the playoffs!
Week 15: I just destroyed Show Me Your TDs (the most common name in fantasy football)! I'm going to win the championship! But my starting QB is playing the Seahawks next week. I'll start Tony Romo instead!
Week 16: An interception with 15 seconds left in the game? Really Romo? I lost by one point. Whatever. There's always next year. Now I need to figure out what to do with my life for the next eight months...
For the record? I think Dez caught it. It's just fun to make fun of Tony Romo.
Have a great fantasy season!
