This week, Detroit Lions star wide receiver Calvin Johnson retired. Earlier this year, Johnson shocked the sports world when he announced that he was considering retirement. Johnson, though not his old best-in-the-league self, is still almost universally considered to be a top 15 receiver in the league. His retirement adds to a worrying trend of football stars retiring in their prime. Johnson’s retirement raises the question — is football beginning to die? As more research comes out demonstrating the harmful impact of concussions, more NFL players, fairly or unfairly, are accused of giving the league a bad image. As more players retire early, will the NFL begin to lose its powerful grip on the sports entertainment’s top spot?
Let us begin with a worst case scenario for the NFL. The NFL would be in tough shape if more former players lash out at the game of football as Antwaan Randle El did earlier this year. Though he has since backed off of his comments, Randle El’s willingness to condemn football for chronic post-career injuries is worrying. If continued research concludes that concussions, which occur fairly frequently in football, do in fact lead to deteriorating mental health that could lead to a former player uprising. Worst case scenario, former players take the NFL to court, suing them for not protecting players’ health. Then, the link in everyone’s mind will be that football implies brain damage.
This could lead to a major drop in child football participation, a trend that is already starting to develop, as kids choose safer sports. With fewer players, the overall talent will drop, chipping away at the quality of the game. Further, if former stars continue to give the league a bad reputation, as Ray Rice did, favor for football could fall. Branded as a dangerous game, left with a leaking talent pool and plagued by the embarrassing actions of off-field players, the NFL could find itself pressed for support, interest and, inevitably, revenue. The NFL will ebb away, the first Sunday in February will cease to be a holiday and the fantasy football industry will indeed become a fantasy.
Above is an absolute worst-case scenario. Literally everything would have to go wrong for the NFL for it to fade into nonexistence – and even then it would take a good number of years. To put it simply, the NFL is not going to die.
The NFL will not fall because it, more than any other league, embodies the American Dream. In the NFL, every year is a hopeful one. Even bad teams are always one or two years away from Super Bowls. Cinderellas often win, capturing America’s revolutionary sentiment for the underdog. Football has a grassroots appeal too. Often high schools, both big and small, metropolitan and rural, are centered around a football team. Football unites communities by bringing everyone out to the game.
Beyond being America’s favorite pastime, the NFL is veritably addressing the concussion problem. The past decade has seen the game shift dramatically. Vicious, helmet-to-helmet hits have been eradicated from the game. New helmets are developed every year, and every year they are safer. The NFL has demonstrated that it's committed to help find solutions to make the game safer.
Finally, the NFL is so immensely popular that it seems “too big to fail.” With such a broad, fanatical fan base, rich owners, and sparkling stadiums, the NFL isn’t going anywhere.
Some may point to baseball for a blueprint. Yes, America’s game can fall. Baseball is not the dominant entertainment it once was. But baseball’s fall was different. The NFL is generally considered to have overtaken baseball as America’s game in the 1990s. The MLB players union went on strike during the 1994 season, causing the 1994 World Series to be cancelled. Baseball never recovered after the strike. The NFL’s current labor deal runs through 2020, so no strike will be taking down the American sports giant any time soon.
Admittedly, I am a soccer faithful and hopeful. If the NFL begins to decline, it could leave a vacuum, sweeping MLS, the United States’ soccer league, into a not only relevant but also integral role in American sports. But while I think soccer will continue to rise, the NFL is not going anywhere. Though Calvin Johnson’s retirement is intriguing, surprising and even saddening, the fall of football is not upon us.
