Back in 2016, the consensus number one pick for the 2017 NHL Entry Draft was Nolan Patrick (who plays in the WHL for the Brandon Wheat Kings), but after a season of hard work and dedication to the game, Nico Hischier (who plays in the QMJHL for the Halifax Mooseheads) has made a name for himself as a powerful center who can dominate the game. This has caused some to believe that Hischier should be the first overall pick instead of Nolan Patrick.
First of all, I want to compare the average amount of goals scored between the WHL and QMJHL to show which player’s league allows more goals. In the WHL, there was an average of 3.40 goals per game and in the QMJHL there was an average of 3.45 goals per game. That is a difference of 0.05 goals per game between the two leagues. That means that while the QMJHL allows more goals, this is not a big enough difference to say that one player is better than the other because they play in the QMJHL instead of the WHL.
Nolan Patrick had 20 goals, 26 assists for 46 points in 33 games this season (he suffered an upper-body injury causing him to miss 35 games). If he did not get injured and he produced at the same pace, he would have had 44 goals (6th), 57 assists (tied for 13th) resulting with a total of 101 points (tied for 5th) in 72 games. Surprisingly, those totals are less than what he achieved in the 2015-16 season (41 goals, 61 assists, 102 points) but that most likely is because of him not playing at 100% health for most of the season.
Nico Hischier had 38 goals, 48 assists for 86 points in 57 games (he missed a 11 games to play for Switzerland). If he played all 68 games he would have 46 goals, 57 assists for 103 points which is 2 more points than Patrick in 4 less games (the QMJHL has 4 less games than the WHL) but as shown above, the QMJHL is easier to score in, by a small amount, and this could be why Hischier has more points. This is also Hischier’s first year playing in North America which makes achieving the point totals he did very impressive.
While the point totals can be put in Hischier’s favour, the overall team success cannot be. Each team finished in 15th place for their respective leagues but in the WHL they have 22 teams while the QMJHL only has 18 teams. Patrick’s team finished with a record of 31-31-10 for a total of 72 points while Hischier’s team finished with a record of 27-35-6 for a total of 60 points. Patrick only played for 33 games this season so an argument could be made that the Wheat Kings don’t need Patrick to be good but last season, when Patrick was healthy for all 72 games, the Wheat Kings were 48-18-6 (102 points) which was 2nd in the WHL and they won the championship that year. This shows that while Hischier has the better personal stats, Patrick has the better team stats.
Overall, I think both players have their strengths and weaknesses and this will be a very tough choice for the New Jersey Devils. While Nico Hischier is able to show that he can produce at a higher rate than Nolan Patrick (by a very small margin), Patrick can show that he can help a team be more successful while he is playing compared to Hischier. With that being said, I would choose Patrick because I think he has the better two way game which will help a team like the New Jersey Devils win the Stanley Cup. I would not be surprised if the Devils decided to go with Hischier as their pick, though, because he has been able to show that he can be just as good as Nolan Patrick and, at times, even better. Regardless of who goes first to the New Jersey Devils, both of these prospects will be very good NHL players and will help their respective teams in different ways.
