The most burning political question in America right now is weather or not President Donald Trump is going to be impeached. Every night hours upon hours of news coverage are devoted to exploring this concept on TV screens across the country. Most of this coverage focuses on the various how's and what's of impeachment; what charges will he be impeached on, how are Democrats going to get a majority in the senate, and can the president pardon himself. While these are all useful questions that deserve answers they don't tackle the most fundamental question, which is, shouldwe impeach president Trump?
To start with I'll go over what are the most important reasons he should be impeached. First and perhaps most importantly is that he is a criminal. While Trump has not been accused or convicted of any crimes yet and Muller's probe has not yet concluded it has become increasingly apparent from the number of Trump aids that have been brought down on criminal charge that Trump is involved in some shady business and has a lot of things to hide even if its not collusion with the Russians.
Second, Trump represents a credible threat to the American political system internationally and domestically. His presidency has produced a level of political corruption in the executive branch that has been unseen since the 1920's with many of his cabinet officers, aids, and family almost flaunting their abuses of government power and public funds. He also has proven dangerous in domestic politics by stoking hatred and racial division at every turn even in the most mundane settings and inspiring numerous violent actions by extremists groups. Internationally he has also served to weaken our diplomatic strength by alienating key allies and kowtowing to dictators for nothing more than a handshake and photo op to say nothing of the amount of foreign business influence being thrown his way. There is also matter of his itchy military trigger finger where he has threatened multiple times to plunge the country into various armed conflicts across the globe for no reason other than stroking his ego.
The third reason, and many people think it's the most compelling one, is Vice president Mike Pence. Compared to Trump, Pence almost seems like a normal person (as normal as a person who calls his wife mother can be anyway). He processes an at least superficial appearance of respect for American political norms and is actually capable of simulating a sense of decorum and restraint. Now I will fully acknowledge that if you are a woman, religious minority, or a member of the LBGTQ community a president Pence will make your life a living hell for all the years he is in office and probably for a few after but he will do all of that without undermining our democracy (overtly anyway), stirring ethnic conflict, or selling out to murderous dictators. His lack of charisma and energy coupled with a strong opposition should make a Pence presidency fairly infective in terms of policy outcomes and most of his accomplishments should be reversible by a latter Democratic president.
On the flip side we have all the reasons President Trump should not be impeached. First, and to my mind most importantly, the political events that will lead to Trumps impeachment will be a political firestorm of a level not seen since the height of the Civil Rights movement. Considering the amounts of division and hurtful rhetoric Trump has already unleashed an impeachment trial will only make it worse as he fights to hold onto his power using any means at his disposal and his supporters rally to his cause. Furthermore, considering the "lively" nature of his base there is likely to be a fair amount of violence from his supporter perhaps even escalating to acts of terrorism from his most unhinged followers as they fight his removal from office. Impeachment promises to be the most politically consequential moment most of us will ever live to see and indeed will be one of the most definitive moments in our nations history and will undoubtedly leave social and political scars that could fester for decades after the crisis has passed.
Second and related to the first reason is the question of what exactly Trump would be willing to do to stay in office. Trump has already demonstrated his intense contempt for the law and the various systems that try and hem in is his power and an impeachment trial would likely only reinforce that. Considering his fairly blasé acceptance of the violence that his supporters commit it is not exactly unthinkable that he would try to use them is some crazy scheme to avoid the law. Furthermore there is no telling to what purpose he might put the immense powers of the presidency to escape jail ranging from pardoning himself and kicking the hornet's nest of constitutional questions to launching some ill-advised foreign war to boost his support and take the attention off him.
Third and most unexpectedly there is our old friend Mike Pence. While Pence is less dangerous and charismatic than Trump this grants its own form of power. For one thing his milquetoastness has its hidden advantages as its get people to not take him seriously and ignore him as a possible threat giving him the freedom to oppress people in relative secrecy. For another thing he actually has a basic civics education and understands how to get things done politically, it is not unreasonable to think he might be able to persuade a few conservative Democrats to cross the isle and vote with his side on a bill if the right offers are made. For all his deficiencies Pence is not someone who should be counted out until January 2021.
Personally I go back and forth on the impeachment question. Sometimes I'll convince myself that impeachment is just a pipe dream and containing and neutering Trump until a Democrat can take over in 2020 is all that is really needed. Then I'll go and read some headlines and think that this has to end soon it cant go on like this and then the cycle will repeat. No matter which way we as the American people and our elected representatives decide to go with the impeachment question we must be aware of the fact that we are making one of the most important political decisions in our nations history and that, for good or ill, this will have ramifications that will last far beyond one presidency.
