Saying that our election cycles are long may be the understatement of the century. This election cycle in particular has felt extremely drawn out. Maybe it’s because this is the first presidential election I have a say in. But, maybe it’s because one particular party started out with 17 candidates running for nomination. We’ve come an extremely long way since the beginning of this cycle. But with the fun part still a month or so away, some candidates could get us there quicker by stepping out now, and not dragging us with them to the convention.
In particular, there are 2 candidates still running that should save everyone the time and money by getting out now. Bernie Sanders and John Kasich. First, let’s start with Governor Kasich. Of the remaining candidates, he’s the easiest choice for many moderate republicans. Mathematically, he has no chance to win. Fun fact, Marco Rubio currently has more pledged delegates than Kasich and he’s been out of the race for a little while now. My best guess is that Kasich is attempting to survive until the GOP Convention in July. If he can make it that far, he then has to hope the convention is contested. A contested convention would mean Donald Trump was unsuccessful in crossing the required delegate threshold to secure the nomination. This gives Ted Cruz and John Kasich a much more significant chance at sliding in as the nominee.
With this logic, Kasich will certainly have an argument, but it won’t be a strong one. And in my opinion, it’s not an argument worth presenting to voters. Yes, the Kasich campaign is still kicking and there is certainly something to be said for that. But throughout the race, his people haven’t shown the ground organization of the Cruz campaign. He hasn’t been able to stir up the emotion and energy that the Trump campaign is constantly finding. And seeing as these are some important factors in a presidential campaign, he hasn’t shown what it takes to be a legitimate contender, even in a contested convention.
The other candidate that I think should remove himself is Bernie Sanders. If you’re reading this as a Bernie supporter, I’m sorry. I know the race isn’t technically over. But, isn’t it? Senator Sanders is currently losing by 808 delegates (includes pledges and super delegates). The remaining democratic primaries add up to 1,208 delegates. To win, Bernie needs to win two-thirds of the remaining delegates. A tough task for candidate, especially one as polarizing as Bernie.
Now, Bernie has said that he (similarly to what I suspect from Kasich) is expecting to be a part of a contested convention in July. And if this happens, Bernie’s people have shown that they are much better at caucusing than Secretary Clinton’s people. His delegates will show up to a convention. Will hers? Just ask Nevada what happens when they don’t.
To win the nomination outright before the convention, a democratic candidate needs 2,383 delegates. Currently, Hillary has 2,165. So of the remaining 1,208 delegates, she only needs 218. She only needs one-sixth of everything left. It looks essentially impossible for Bernie to become the nominee. And I understand why he is hesitant to bow out. His campaign has come a long way since its inception. He’s managed to fund the majority of his campaign with individual donations. He’s motivated a lot of younger citizens to care about politics and get out the vote. Bernie’s campaign has been successful, even if that success isn’t defined by becoming the democratic nominee for president.
Both Senator Sanders and Governor Kasich have things to be proud of. Kasich is the last man standing of the establishment republican candidates. Bernie strongly challenged Hillary Clinton (a guy from Vermont giving a freaking Clinton a run for her money) and proved to young people that their voice should be heard.
I have no doubt that Bernie will stay in the race until the convention. Kasich might too, but his days are certainly numbered. But in the end, it’s time for the curtain call and to exit stage left.
