Life is about progression. Last week I was coming off an embarrassing 6-10 showing that even made Lovie Smith call me and say “you serious bro?” Okay that didn’t happen, but you get my point. Week 2 was a different story. I was no longer Lovie Smith, but now Jeff Fisher aka Mr. 8-8. A push is better than a loss in Vegas so I’ll chalk up last week as moral (and more importantly, affordable) victory.

On paper this week looks like a trap. There are a lot of small spreads that should be bigger and a couple big spreads that have no business being that big. For the first time in years the Patriots look like a good team to gamble against now that Jimmy G is shelved with an AC joint sprain. Jamaal Charles could be back for the Chiefs as they go head-to-head with fellow contender the New York Jets in Arrowhead. It’s going to be a tough week, but I believe we can do this. Let’s get started, home teams are in CAPS.

Texans (Even) over PATRIOTS

My hands were shaking just writing this. You almost never, ever, ever, EVER, pick against Bill Belichick at home. He’s a confirmed evil genius and Gillette Stadium is his laboratory. So why would I dare pick against him especially when he’s getting points? In eleven Thursday night games Belichick is a perfect 9-0 with the GOAT Tom Brady, but 0-2 without him (credit Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit for the stat). This Thursday he will be without Brady and most likely Jimmy Garropolo who sprained an AC joint late in the first half against the Dolphins.

Rewatching Texans game film from the past two weeks can help put your mind at relative ease. Brock Osweiler isn’t Peyton Manning, but he’s not Brian Hoyer. He is one of the few that can say he beat Belichick once (regardless of the shady officiating). DeAndre Hopkins finally has someone to take the attention off him in rookie wideout Will Fuller. And above all the Texans pass rush, which has been hyped up since the team selected Jadaveon Clowney first overall in 2014, has finally arrived.

With Watt and Clowney now wreaking havoc up front the Texans have resembled the team many thought they’d be after watching Hard Knocks last season. Third string quarterback Jacoby Brissett gets the call so expect Belichick to design a quirky game plan that makes this much more of a competitive game than it should. The Patriots already did their job in winning two of the four games without Brady so don’t be surprised if Brissett is left in there no matter the score. They’ll put up a fight, but all signs point to the Texans getting revenge for a second straight week.

Prediction: Texans 23, Patriots 19

Cardinals (-4) over BILLS

The Cardinals are not playing around anymore. A week following a defeat at the hands of the Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski-less Patriots the Cardinals opened a can of whoopass on the Buccaneers. Jameis Winston and the Bucs offense was suffocated and the Bucs defense was run out of the building in a 40-7 stomping. Up next the Cardinals head east to take on a worse Bills team. Conventional wisdom says you pick against a west coast team playing the 1pm game in the east.

Too bad the Bills cannot be trusted. Rex Ryan’s path to getting fired became a whole lot clearer following a loss to the Jets last Thursday. Not only did the Jets win, their offense put up 500-plus yards on a Bills defense that rushes the quarterback as well as Rob Ryan sticks to a diet. Matt Forte ran for 100 yards and three touchdowns last week. David Johnson is Forte on roids and the Cardinals offense as a whole is on another level compared to the Jets. Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy will try and make this respectable, but with Sammy Watkins not at full health we all know how this story ends.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Bills 17

Raiders (+1.5) over TITANS

I’m not hopping off the Raiders bandwagon although Sean Smith is doing his best job to clear the whole wagon. It might be time to start worrying about a Raiders defense that was supposed to be improved after adding veterans like Smith, Bruce Irvin, and Reggie Nelson. So far that unit looks worse than it did last year. If Matt Ryan is violating you (396 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) then you know it’s time to switch it up. Derek Carr and the offense is good for 20-plus a game on most days so all the defense has to do is hold the opponent to under 20. Not much to ask for.

This week the Silver and Black face a frisky Titans team that is not ready to tank just yet. Marcus Mariota has looked really good early in the season and you can start to see the foundation of some bright years ahead in Nashville. Coming off two great performances versus the NFC North they will come back and face a red hot offense that has scored at least 28 points in both their games. This one will be competitive throughout, but I think that Raiders offense is ultimately too much for the Titans to handle.

Prediction: Raiders 24, Titans 20

Browns (+9.5) over DOLPHINS

Classic example of take the points. The Dolphins should and will win this game, but by more than ten points? I’m not willing to risk that. Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler--who Hue Jackson was pretty high on coming out of the draft--will get his first start. The third round pick from USC has shown that he can take of the football, but he won’t wow you with his arm. He’s more likely to dink and dunk more than anything which could be a solid attack against a Dolphins defense that was getting burnt by that same game plan versus the Patriots last week.

The Dolphins defense should be good enough to hold Kessler in check and give their offense some time to put up some points. Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are ready to be one of the league’s best receiver duos whenever Ryan Tannehill is ready. If there is one way to beat the Browns it’s through the air. Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco both did what they pleased against the Browns secondary so Tannehill should have a strong performance. Having said that I’m not sold on him leading the way to a blowout.

Prediction: Browns 13, Dolphins 20

Ravens (Even) over JAGUARS

Shoutout to Blake Bortles for exposing himself last week. If you were fortunate enough to catch Mike Lombardi on The Bill Simmons Podcast last Friday you knew Bortles would shit the bed Sunday. Lombardi pointed out that Bortles has three first quarter touchdowns in his career. Is that someone you can trust? I don’t think so. The Jaguars were completely slaughtered by a Chargers team that was playing without its top two offensive weapons Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen. I’m done believing in the Jags.

Buying into the 2-0 Ravens is also not a given. They couldn’t cover a touchdown spread versus the lowly Browns. Thankfully there are no points to cover, just a game to win. Mike Wallace seems to have finally found a home, pairing perfectly with Flacco who works best with receivers blow the top off the defense. The Jaguars could not stop anything last week against a depleted Chargers receiving core so Flacco should have another fun day at the office.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 21

PACKERS (-7.5) over Lions

It’s always funny when everyone overreacts to Aaron Rodgers struggling early. You probably have already seen the “Is Aaron Rodgers the same?” think pieces and thought to yourself maybe the Packers aren’t that good. Stop it. As Rodgers famously said “R-E-L-A-X”. He looked fine against the pathetic Jags and bad against a great Vikings defense in their building. He will now by in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field against an embarrassing Lions pass defense.

Matthew Stafford has played extremely well so far. He has become a leader and facilitator that everyone hoped he would when Calvin Johnson was still in town. Ameer Abdullah is gone for the foreseeable future with a foot injury and Golden Tate decided to take the early portion of the season off. A pissed of Packers offense versus a putrid defense usually spells disaster. Stafford and Marvin Jones may connect on some garbage time scores, but don’t hold your breath for a huge upset.

Prediction: Lions 16, Packers 31

BENGALS (-3) over Broncos

This week will show us who the Broncos really are. Winning the opening two games at home is impressive, but I’m interested to see what Trevor Siemian can do on the road. He has looked good enough so far, but a lot of guys can look good playing at Mile High with the best defense in the league running shit. This week Siemian might have to throw the ball down field instead of little dump screens to C.J. Anderson and DeMaryius Thomas.

Last week the Bengals dropped one to their hated (and I mean HATED) rival the Steelers so they come in pissed off. Toss in the fact that this is their home opener and you get a team that is just waiting for kickoff. A.J. Green was held in relative check last week, but that did not stop Andy Dalton from throwing for 366 yards. Obviously the Broncos defense is significantly better than the Steelers or Jets, Dalton can definitely have a strong outing at home. If this game was in Denver I would take the points, but I just can’t see Trevor Siemian start his career off 3-0. Call me a hater if you’d like, but I’m rolling with Cincy.

Prediction: Broncos 23, Bengals 27

Vikings (+7) over PANTHERS

This might be the toughest game of the week. Two tough defenses take on offenses missing their running back. Adrian Peterson appears done for the season with a torn meniscus leaving the backfield duties to Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. Any other season and this equals a lost season, but this year’s Vikings are different. Their defense is quickly climbing to the elite category, Sam Bradford knows how to sling that thing, and Stefon Diggs looks like a player who can carry the load if needed. In Bradford’s first game he cliqued with Stefon Diggs immediately (9 receptions, 182 yards, and a TD) and was throwing the ball really well overall.

The Panthers got back on track after choking the opening game of the season away. They took out all their frustration on the 49ers as Cam Newton threw all over them for 353 yards and four touchdowns. Newton should have a strong outing every game as long as Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin are healthy, but no Jonathan Stewart puts added attention to the pass game. A good Vikings defense should limit the damage and a suspect Panthers secondary should equal another strong showing from Diggs and Bradford to keep this close.

Prediction: Vikings 21, Panthers 24

Redskins (+4.5) over GIANTS

Just looking at these two team names makes me sick. There was no greater lock last week than the Giants putting up numbers against the Saints. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham should have made MetLife Stadium look like a pickup game of NFL Street against the worst defense in the NFC. Instead they scored zero touchdowns last week and are responsible for me almost breaking my TV when they TOOK A FUCKING KNEE AT THE GOAL LINE. I’ll never forgive Ben McAdoo for such a soft call and never forget what the Giants did to my money last Sunday.

Then we have the Redskins. These guys. Kirk Cousins has locked up the Sam Bradford Award for 2016, awarded to the quarterback who bets on himself and loses in embarrassing fashion. Congrats Kirk, well deserved after two bad performances against okay defenses. The Giants new look defense is the best defense Cousins has faced so far and if he continues to look suspect in the pocket he might find himself with a clipboard in the near future. Luckily for Redskins fans the Giants have the killer instincts of a possum so they’ll keep this close before moving to 3-0.

Prediction: Redskins 20, Giants 23

BUCCANEERS (-5) over Rams

Will the real LA Rams please stand up? One week they look terrible the next week they look marginally bad. Last week’s home opening win against the Seahawks had more to do with the state of the Seahawks offense more than the Rams playing well. Case Keenum still sucks and Jeff Fisher is still a bad coach. Those things will remain constant. Bad teams typically show their true colors on the road.

Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers were embarrassed last week in Arizona. The Cardinals did what they wanted when they wanted. Thankfully the Rams are nowhere near the skill of the Cardinals. No Doug Martin hurts, but Charles Sims is a worthy backup and Mike Evans is still really good. If the Bucs can survive the inevitable breakout game from Todd Gurley (if it doesn't happen this week Gurley owners can finally jam their finger on the panic button) they should win this game comfortably. Plus, Jeff Fisher has patented the 8-8 model so a win should almost always be followed by a loss here.

Prediction: Rams 17, Buccaneers 27

49ers (+9.5) over SEAHAWKS

Use that same thinking from the Browns game and apply it here. I don’t doubt that the Seahawks offense finds its footing eventually. Just not this week. Don’t get me wrong Russell Wilson and company will put up enough to win this game. The Seahawks defense will stifle Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers offense--just not enough to cover ten points.

The good news for the 49ers is that they faced a top defense in their house last week so they know what to expect in Seattle. Carlos Hyde was held at bay by the Panthers after grinding up the Rams. Expect a similar performance from last week in Seattle. Best bet here is the Seahawks jumping out early with a couple field goals (or touchdown if Wilson is ready to be a quarterback again) and the 49ers toss a garbage score up late to cover.

Prediction: 49ers 10, Seahawks 16

Jets (+3) over CHIEFS

Probably the best game of the day features two teams that could look at this game more than a Week 3 matchup. Both figure to be in the playoff hunt in December and nothing eases the mind then owning a tiebreaker. The Jets are coming off as big a win as you can have in Week 2 against the rival Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense steamrolled the Bills. Matt Forte looks as good as he did in Chicago and Quincy Enunwa can officially be labeled as trustworthy. On defense it’s all about the front seven. They knocked Tyrod Taylor unconscious last week and Alex Smith should definitely be on high alert this week.

Smith and company were ineffective last week in Houston, but might be getting Jamaal Charles back. Spencer Ware came back down to Earth accounting for 105 yards of offense, but did not reach the end zone and turned the ball over once. If Charles is back expect Ware and Charcandrick West to still be featured heavily this week. The Jets glaring weakness through two games has been their pass defense. Darrelle Revis is still Darrelle Revis, but it’s obvious he’s working himself back into shape. Andy Reid’s offense is predicated on dink and dunks, but playing like that only helps the Jets this week.

If Smith can find Jeremy Maclin deep the Jets might be in trouble, but dink and dunks to Travis Kelce and Ware seem more fitting. No Justin Houston plus minimal to no Charles and Tamba Hali should equal a Jets cover for the third straight week.

Prediction: Jets 26, Chiefs 24

COLTS (-3) over Chargers

Twice I picked the Colts to cover and twice they failed. Third time has got to be the charm right? The good news for the Colts is that they put up a fight against the Broncos on the road. The bad news is they still lost and will be without Donte Moncrief for 4-6 weeks. Without Moncrief Andrew Luck will have to rekindle the same partnership with T.Y. Hilton that the duo had in 2014. Second year receiver Phillip Dorsett figures to move into Hilton’s deep threat role while Hilton becomes the go-to guy again.

Philip Rivers can sympathize with injuries as he has seen his top two weapons--Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen--hit the IR in consecutive weeks. The injuries didn’t faze Rivers last week at home against the Jags and it shouldn’t faze him against an equally shitty Colts defense. Melvin Gordon has shed any chatter of bust potential as he continues to score touchdowns. This will be a high scoring affair and at some point Rivers will not cover the spread and the Colts know they cannot go to 0-3 and make the playoffs. Desperation should win out this week.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Colts 33

Steelers (-3.5) over EAGLES

This week we find out just how good Carson Wentz and the Eagles are. They are 2-0, but have faced the two worst teams in the league. The Steelers are not only a step up from the Browns and Bears, they’re the polar opposites. Unlike the previous two teams the Steelers have a real offense and maybe the best offense in the league. Ben Roethlisberger has utilized the supporting cast just as much as he has fed Antonio Brown.

DeAngelo Williams has been the ideal insurance policy Le’Veon Bell and has carbon copied Bell’s expected production through two games. In his finale as the starter Williams should carve up an Eagles run defense that was not test last Monday in Chicago and has been prone to give up a lot of yards. On offense Wentz looks to keep the momentum of his first two starts against a vulnerable Steelers secondary. It’s not going to be easy pitch-and-catches like it was the first two games, but if the rookie can replicate the same type of throws he has made thus far the Eagles should be competitive in this one. Still, I said I wouldn’t bet against Antonio Brown and the Steelers until they gave me a reason to.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Eagles 23

COWBOYS (-7) over Bears

Put a star next to this game because it may be the lock of the week. It is for me at least. The Bears looked like a professional football team for two of their first eight quarters of the season. The other six have been hard to watch. Jay Cutler has been terrible and his replacement (he’s out for at least 3-4 weeks with torn ligament in his thumb) Brian Hoyer will never be confused as an upgrade. Jeremy Langford and Alshon Jeffery will have to be stellar if the Bears even have a chance of winning this game.

The Cowboys come back home feeling much better about themselves than they did when they left. A road win against the Redskins has Cowboys fans breathing easier and rookie Dak Prescott is a big reason for that. You can cue up the “Is Dak the new Russell Wilson” think pieces (I wrote mine in the preseason) because he is the real deal.

What makes him the heir to Russell Wilson is his stats, but his leadership. When the Cowboys trailed 23-20 late in last week’s game Prescott remained confident and marched his unit downfield for the game-winning score. He should continue to flash that confidence and even throw his first touchdown of the season against a Bears team that should be tanking the season if they aren’t already.

Prediction: Bears 13, Cowboys 28

SAINTS (-3) over Falcons

Any time the Falcons and Saints meet you know two things--there will be a lot of points and a lot of stupidity. Matt Ryan has been quietly good this season, eclipsing 300 yards and sporting a touchdown to interception ratio of 5-to-1. Both performances came against bad defenses, but guess what? The Saints defense is terrible. Last week’s stout showing was more a product of Eli Manning shitting the bed than it was the Saints defense turning the corner.

Last season the Saints swept both matchups including a 31-21 win in the Superdome. Being that this game is in the Superdome the Saints offense should be back to their normal selves. The Falcons defense has been as bad as Matt Ryan has been good, surrendering at least 28 points in both games this season. After only scoring 13 points in New York (New Jersey), Brees and company are due for an outburst. It won’t be pretty, but I think the Saints eke one out against their rival.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Saints 38

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