A new NBA season has started with great excitement and expectations. There was some major player movement and everyone is curious how new rosters will perform and adapt. On the other side, there were some impressive individual performances and, judging by beginning of the season, this year’s MVP race will be the most interesting in the last couple of years. The season has just begun, but so far several players have made strong statements regarding MVP candidacy. One of them stands out in scoring department so far.
DeMar DeRozan is playing his eighth season in the league. Over the years his stats have gradually improved and in the last couple of seasons he has become a focal point of the Toronto Raptors' offense. He led them to Eastern Conference Finals last year, and they gave decent challenge to the eventual champions.
But DeRozan started this season on another level. His performances in the first nine games were superstar-caliber, putting him without a doubt at the top of MVP race. There are obviously too many games left for us to make some reliable prediction already, so let’s just take what we have for now and try to analyze how good are chances for DeRozan to win the MVP title if he continues to play like this. So let’s take a closer look at his performances so far.
STATS
With five 30+ point games in first five matches of the season, DeRozan made accomplishment that has not been made since Michael Jordan’s 1986-87 season start. He is also first after Jordan to score 30 or more in eight of the first nine season’s games, with two 40-point games among that. Overall, DeMar is averaging 34 points per game, leading the league in this category by far margin (at number two is Anthony Davis with 31.1). These are without any doubt MVP numbers, but let’s take one step further.
Amongst top 20 scorers in the league this season, DeRozan is trailing only Kevin Durant in field goal percentage, with 52.8 percent success. Those are almost unreal numbers for a shooting guard who takes 20+ shots in every game. He also manages to get to the free throw line regularly, with 10 attempts per game, fifth most in the league.
Naturally, the Raptors are exploring his elite performance as much as they can. DeRozan has the greatest usage percentage in the team, using 37.5 percent of team’s possession while on the court. Only Joel Embiid (41.9) and Russel Westbrook (41.3) are ahead of him in the league, and only Embiid (43.5) has greater percentage of total team’s points scored than DeRozan (41.1), while on the court. DeRozan is also among the league’s best in creating his own shots. 75.7 percent of his made field goal shots are unassisted, seventh most in the league.
TEAM RECORD
If we are to judge by these statistical parameters, DeMar definitely is among top three candidates for MVP this season, probably number one at this moment. But the fact is that statistics are not the only deciding factor in MVP race.
If we take a look at the list of MVP winners in the past 30 years, 24 out of 30 times the MVP came from the team that had the best regular season record, five times an MVP came from second best record team, and only once (Jordan in ‘88 season) the winner came from 3rd best record team. Obviously, the MVP has to come from a team that has best or second best regular season record. The Raptors finished last season with the 4th best record (56-26). This season they are 7-2 so far, tied at the 3rd place in the league overall.
It is clear that for DeRozan to be in the consideration for MVP, aside from his fantastic performance so far, the Raptors need to stay among top two or three teams in the league, which will be extremely hard this season. Competition this season is the toughest in recent years, and there are also several other players on winning teams putting great individual performances.
DeMar has definitely elevated his game on a superstar level. He is league’s best scorer and extremely efficient shooter. This is his best season so far, and if he can maintain this level of excellence, he will definitely be in narrow circle of MVP candidates.
On the other side, the Raptors didn’t improve their roster much, and with other teams emerging it will be difficult for them to finish among the two best teams in the league. So the fact is that DeRozan has the most chance to win MVP than ever, but it will solely depend on his team’s success in the regular season. If Raptors finish it at the top, DeRozan will be NBA’s new regular season MVP.
This will definitely be extremely exciting season for basketball fans, so we just need to keep watching and enjoy the game.
