After months of campaigning, Iowans will finally cast their first votes on Monday for the 2016 Presidential Race. Although there are several websites that you can get your information from, I chose PredictWise and of course, several social media outlets including Twitter and Facebook to poll what my friends and followers think the outcome will be. But first, why is the Iowa Caucus so important?
Since 1976, Iowa has been the first state to hold any kind of vote on candidates. Many point to the media as the true creator of the prominent political role that Iowa plays in the presidential election. For example, during the 1976 presidential race, Jimmy Carter spent a year conducting a campaign in the state, and was rewarded with a huge victory in the caucus. Since then, candidates spend an excessive amount of time in Iowa rallying for support.
Since the candidates spend time in Iowa, the media does also. And where the media are, the candidates will be there also hoping to get more attention and votes. Johan Bergenas, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, argued while he was a political science student at the University of Iowa "that the press' presence is what lends such weight to the Iowa caucus. The media pin both expectations and labels on the candidates. If the candidate does not fulfill expectations or cannot carry the label, he or she might not be portrayed as viable by the media."
Some observers scoff at the importance placed on a state with so few people. Iowa's status as the first presidential caucus in the national is constantly under scrutiny. In 2003, 2007 and 2008, several states met to discuss a rotating primary schedule to begin in 2012 so that states can share the importance of being the first in the presidential nominating process - as you know, that was unsuccessful.
It appears that Iowa will continue to be extremely prominent in the presidential election process for many years, especially since our state law says we must have the first caucus in the nation.
Now for the Iowa Caucus predictions:
Republican:
"The research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, successfully predicted the winner in 21 or the first 26 primary contests in 2012, including Iowa." Right now according to Rothschild's website, PredictWise there is a 52-percent chance of Donald Trump winning the caucus as of Saturday.This may be surprising to some due to Ted Cruz being favored for most of December and early January. Rothschild explains this by stating, "they're looking at things beyond the polls here: the governor of Iowa strongly pushing against Ted Cruz, the question of how people may vote strategically, this question of where the establishment wants to show its support going into New Hampshire."
Democratic:
...from the people:
"I think that it will be difficult for O'Malley to win due to how the Democratic caucus works meaning that his supporters are forced to chose another side, and I think they will choose Bernie forcing his polls to rise above Clinton's. As for the Republicans, they do a flat vote and I believe that Donald Trump will win."
"Donald better not win. Voting to make sure he doesn't."
"I'm caucusing for Bernie for a lot of reasons, but here's a few: I'm tired of the rich and powerful calling all the shots. I'm tired of them blaming disabled people on social security - like my father - for our nation's deficit, all while they dump millions into elections to ensure they don't have to pay their fair share of taxes, so the poor and middle class have to make up the difference.That they don't have to pay their workers a living wage. That when they don't pay their workers a living wage, we have to subsidize their inhumane practices and spend billions to support their workers' survival via government assistance. They they can continue to profit off the exploitation of human beings. I'm tired of being told that immigrants are the problem. That we need to keep Latinos out. Muslims. That Blacks just need to work harder and quit complaining. That people of Color are exploiting 'us' for personal gain. White supremacy and racism is a violent, ugly, nasty sickness that keeps us all down, especially people of Color. If they can keep us fighting at the bottom and pointing fingers at each other, they stay at the top, unquestioned. I'm tired of them telling us that we don't deserve healthcare. That it's not a human right. That I only deserve healthcare if I can afford it. That they have a right to profit off of the illness of my friends and family, while my friends and family declare bankruptcy over medical debt. Lose their homes. Their livelihoods. I'm tired of being told that education isn't a right. That only those that can afford to take out thousands in loans deserve the opportunities associated with a college education. That I've committed the crime of pursuing an education, so I've got to pay the price -- including $50,000 in student debt with an interest rate of roughly 7-8 percent. We're in this together. We should all pay our fair share - that's how democracy works.That's how equal opportunity works. You and are I doing it -- the 1-percent should, too."
“After serious consideration and looking over a very deep and qualified field of potential candidates, I have decided to give my support, my personal endorsement if you will, to Senator Ted Cruz. Ted has been a stalwart supporter of Israel and our people. He is one of the few leaders in the U.S. government with the intestinal fortitude to call terrorism ‘terrorism’, and directly address the threat of radical Islam and a nuclear Iran. Ted has proven to be fearless in fighting against the odds when he must, something I as the leader of a tiny nation surrounded by enemies can relate to.” He concluded, “Over the last two years Ted and I have been in regular contact, we have worked closely together on policy. To say the least, he (Cruz) has been an unwavering ally-- and what’s more he’s been a true friend. I would ask the American people, and the freedom loving members of the world community to join me in supporting Ted Cruz as the next U.S President.”
"I encourage all caucus goers to support Martin O’Malley. There are several reasons I believe O’Malley is best to lead our nation. Most importantly is of all the candidates, Democrat and Republican, he is focused on uniting the divisions in our country, rather than exploiting them for political gain. When O’Malley was in Albia this fall he told the crowd that our American Eagle cannot fly if the Left Wing and the Right Wing do not work together. That is the type of leadership Washington needs. Gov. O’Malley displays the true temperament of a statesmen. While others talk of fear and anger, O’Malley reminds us that the “enduring symbol of our country is not the barbed wire fence. It is the Statue of Liberty.” Also, Gov. O’Malley is the only one of the three of candidates who has a track record of not of being a divider, but of bringing people together to get meaningful things done: raising the living wage, making college more affordable, creating jobs, healing wounds and divisions. That's what our country needs right now. America needs new leadership, and I encourage you to join me in supporting Martin O'Malley on caucus night."
Twitter poll results:
I cannot stress enough how important it is to go out and caucus on Monday night. I also cannot stress enough how important it is to be an educated and informed voter. For those who are unable or do not have the time to do in-depth research on political candidates, go to isidewith.com. This quiz asks your opinion on important election topics such as immigration, foreign policy, domestic policy, healthcare, education, criminal issues, etc. After finishing, it then lets you know how candidates opinions and policies align with your own.
I would like to encourage everyone to embrace their civic duty and participate in the political process as an opportunity to be part of building the environment in which we live and work. The election will have an impact on all of us because it will determine who sets the policies that shape our daily lives. Thomas Jefferson stated, "We do not have a government by a majority of the people, we have a government by a majority of the people who participate."
