Roger Federer will not be playing in the French Open next week in order to recover from a back injury, ending one of the greatest streaks in tennis: a record 65 consecutive grand slams played. To put that number into perspective, the last grand slam Federer did not play in was the 1999 U.S. Open, long before his maiden slam win at the 2003 Wimbledon Championships and his subsequent domination of the sport from 2004 to 2008.
The decision could not have been an easy one for Federer. In addition to ending the amazing streak, Federer must be feeling increasingly frustrated with his 2016 season; the back injury he sustained in late April is only the latest in a string of ailments Federer has had to deal with this year, with a knee injury (which required surgery), flu virus and stomach virus either hampering his performance in tournaments or forcing him to withdraw from them altogether. Since Federer has significantly more ranking points to defend at Wimbledon this year (where he made the final last year) than at the French (where he made the quarterfinals), however, it does make sense in the interest of his health to cut his losses and focus on giving a strong showing during the upcoming grass court season.
Shifting our focus over to the current draw for the French Open, the player who will now likely benefit more from Federer’s glaring absence than anybody else is nine-time champion Rafael Nadal. Nadal will now be seeded four instead of five, which puts him at a much larger distance away from world number one, and nemesis Novak Djokovic. The earliest the two could now meet would be in the semifinals, which is one spot later in the tournament than where they met last year (and where Djokovic proved victorious in straight sets, handing Nadal his second loss at the tournament since 2005). This will also be good news for Djokovic; it is highly likely that no other player poses a more direct threat to his chances of winning his first French Open title than Nadal, save perhaps for an in-form Wawrinka, à la last year’s final.
Another contender for the title will be Andy Murray, who beat Nadal in the semifinals of Madrid earlier this month and who just last week beat Djokovic to win the Italian Open in Rome (on his 29th birthday, no less). Both of those tournaments were on clay, which shows that Murray has finally found a winning formula for a surface that has historically caused nothing but problems for him; until last year he hadn’t even made an ATP clay court final in his career. Now, he must certainly be counted as one of the top four or five players in the tournament to have a real shot at taking home the trophy.
Finally, all eyes will be on Stan Wawrinka to see if he can duplicate his incredible success from last year and defend his 2015 French Open title. Nobody predicted last year that he would be the one to stop Djokovic in the final, and certainly nobody expected the level of tennis he ended up producing in the process. Can he do it again? When Wawrinka is hot, it’s true that he can beat anybody; he’s biggest challenges before a potential semifinal with Murray would be Giles Simon and Milos Raonic, both of whom Wawrinka shouldn’t have too much trouble dispatching if he plays as well as he did last year.
My predictions
I would have a much easier time picking Novak Djokovic to win the tournament if Nadal wasn’t playing like his old self. For the most part, he is, however, so in my view both players have equally good chances at becoming the 2016 French Open champion; in fact, I would go as far as to say that it will be one of those two who lifts the trophy in two weeks. However, Murray has proved lately that he could potentially make a deep run on the clay, and since he’s won two Grand Slams in the past he would be my third pick. After him, Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem and Marin Cilic, all experienced and formidable players, would be the dark horses in this tournament.
Do you agree, or disagree, with my predictions? Leave a comment below with your top five predictions! (For the record, Serena Williams will win on the women’s side -- there's simply no contest.)
