Tuesday night will provide the crucial next step in Sam Hinkie's explosive rebuild of the Philadelphia 76ers. This time, no analytics, no sports science and no superstition (debatably…) can alter the ping-pong balls that reveal the 2015 NBA Draft lottery picks. If you've ever feebly tried to chase a ping-pong ball through shuffling feet at a party, the lottery selection process is equally as maddening.
Many believe the meddling exists on the other end of the spectrum. Conspiracy theories exist in bunches. An allegedly creased/frozen envelope selected by David Stern guaranteed the New York Knicks the first overall pick in 1985, ensuring Partick Ewing landed in one of the league's largest media markets. LeBron James has been on two ends of draft lottery conspiracies. Even the Cavaliers' tie for dead in the NBA in 2003 couldn't ward off theorists claiming the league guaranteed James would land in his hometown of Cleveland. When he departed the Cavaliers for Miami after the 2010 season, then-general manager of the Minnesota Timberwolves, David Kahn, raised concerns that the league granted the Cavs the first pick in the 2011 draft to compensate for their enormous loss. And in 2012, the league-owned New Orleans Hornets received the first overall pick with just a 13.7 percent odds heading into the lottery just as they were looking to find a potential buyer for the team.
Assuming all is quiet on the Adam Silver-front and all shenanigans are checked at the door, here are the 76ers odds heading into the all-important lottery.
Inventory Check
The Sixers are deep in the frontcourt with All-Rookie First Team selection Nerlens Noel and the addition of a healthy Joel Embiid this upcoming season. They lack in, well, everything else. In field goal, three-point and free throw percentage, the Sixers finished worst, second-worst and worst respectively.
Finishing with the third-worst record, the Sixers are guaranteed no worse than the sixth pick – only the first three picks are determined through the lottery; the rest fall in order based on worst record.
Sixers first round pick odds:
1st pick: 15.6 percent
2nd pick: 15.7
3rd pick: 15.60
4th pick: 22.6
5th pick: 26.5
6th pick: 4
The Sixers could potentially have as many as three first round picks this year, as they own the rights to first round picks for the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers under certain restrictions. The protection on the Lakers' pick prevents the Sixers from acquiring it unless it falls outside the top-5. Likewise, if the Heat pick falls outside of the top-10 selections, the Sixers acquire their first rounder as well.
The Lakers' pick is likely to remain low next year as a deep Western Conference should still stifle an injury-riddled Kobe Bryant and the true rookie campaign for Julius Randle. The pick is only top-3 protected next year.
Best-case scenario, the Sixers receive the first overall pick, the Lakers' pick at six and the Heat pick at 11, becoming the first team to own three lottery picks in the same draft since the lottery system's rocky beginning in 1985. The utopian rallying cry of Philadelphia social media has become #OneSixEleven.
Odds of acquiring addition first round picks:
Lakers top-5 protected: 17.2 percent
Heat top-10 protected: 9
Lakers and Heat picks: 3.7
#OneSixEleven: 0.28
Draft Prospects
Rumors flooded Philadelphia that the team has significant interest in D'Angelo Russell, former point guard for the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Sixers' hole at point guard could fit a young Shia LaBeouf, so at face value the shoe seems to fit. Russell possesses fantastic measurables. The 6-foot-5 guard has an impressive 6-foot-8.5 wingspan and his length positively impacts his game. An effective rebounder, his size made him an NBA-bodied guard playing in a collegiate game and contributed to his ability to create via the pass. The true freshman's arsenal includes an above average jump shot and a range from beyond the arc. He shot 41.1 percent from deep, and 44.9 percent from the field.
The rival point guard prospect is Emmanuel Mudiay of the Guangdong Southern Tigers in the Chinese Basketball Association. Other than their identical height and wingspan, their games differ tremendously. Mudiay's through-the-roof athletic ceiling and ability to finish at the hoop must be enticing for the Hinkie and Brown clan. While Russell can work in transition, the majority of his work with Noel and Embiid down low will reside further from the basket. Mudiay provides the athletic ability to get the basket and create from there, but lacks in his ability to score away from the hoop. A free throw percentage under 60 percent is a massive red flag, and his jumper's inconsistencies don't project significant potential as a scorer from mid-range and beyond the arc.
The Sixers and head coach Brett Brown will emphasize athleticism and transition basketball with their versatile bigs, and either option at guard could fit a potential Hinkie-masterplan.
Should one or both guards be drafted, the Sixers and Hinkie must feel this draft is still deep for their needs. Another freshman, Justise Winslow, possesses an NBA-ready body and aggressiveness in drawing contact at the rim, and will be available should the Sixers' pick slide to five or six – or if the Lakers' pick falls to the Sixers. Winslow would provide the Sixers with a valuable threat from the wing that fits their transition style offense without sacrificing on the defensive side of the ball.
If the pick does in fact slide, foreign-prospect Mario Hezonja of FC Barcelona is another viable threat to stretch the floor from the wing. A fantastic finisher with an above average first step and ability to slice through the lane, Hezonja displays a promising shot from atop his 6-foot-8 200 pound frame. Hinkie already has 6-foot-10 forward Dario Saric stashed in Turkey for one more season. His height and three-point range at the not-so-small forward would not only compliment the current bigs down low, but also a guard with the ability to attack the lane like Hezonja. His defense, however, leaves much to be desired. Wing scorers are the next generation of NBA stars, and this draft could provide the Sixers with multiple opportunities to land one in both rounds one and two.
Sam Hinkie has amassed five second round selections this year, providing both depth to a depleted roster and useful bargaining chips. The man is rumored to have offered a trade for every pick in the 2013 draft – do not underestimate his ability to wheel-and-deal and inevitably restock future assets to bolster the team down the road.
The obvious fit seems to be a point guard for the Sixers. But with Hinkie, the obvious is anything but. Should the pick slide, the draft's wing depth could provide a significant offensive threat for Philadelphia. There is less than a one-in-three chance the Sixers move up from third, but that has not silenced the dreamers. Former Duke Blue Devil Jahlil Okafor provides NBA-ready offense that could stretch the floor while also providing outstanding post-play. And for all those holding out for #OneSixEleven, hope remains that the team will take the best available talent and insert Karl-Anthony Towns into the already-crowded front court. For sanity's sake, let's cross that seven foot-long bridge if we come to it.
