After a nearly 15 hour long filibuster on the Senate floor, led by Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Republican leaders have agreed to a vote on two proposed gun control measures: whether to ban people on the government's terrorist watchlist from obtaining gun licenses and whether to expand background checks to gun shows and internet sales. It finally seems, that after the worst mass shooting in US history, there will be a legitimate chance to pass legislation to do something about the horrific trend of gun violence in America. But that has not been the case.
While I applaud Sen. Murphy’s efforts in pressuring Congress to act on gun control measures, the inconvenient truth of current discourse is that none of the measures that are being discussed are enough to reduce violence to European levels. To do so, will require what Republicans dread might happen and what Democrats are afraid of saying: reducing the amount of guns circulating in our country. If our goal is to dramatically reduce gun violence and join the rest of the developed world, the government would have to take a large percentage of guns away from their owners.
The evidence that more guns mean more gun violence is pretty hard to deny and is validated by several studies. Developed countries with higher rates of gun ownership are associated with more gun violence. This is true for states within the United States, and for neighborhoods and households. It is as clear of a relationship as it gets in the social sciences. In fact, it might be one of the only things we know for sure when studying gun violence, yet it seems to be the one issue that we fail to discuss. The grotesque amount of guns in the US is responsible for the unique American issue of gun violence. While background checks and closing the terrorist loophole might help to reduce some violence, and save some lives, to save a lot of lives requires more.
According to UN data the United States has nearly 7 times the gun homicide rate as Sweden, 16 times the rate of Germany, and nearly 7 times the rate of Finland. To reduce gun violence to Finnish levels, the US would have to reduce gun deaths by 67 percent. The measures that Senate Republicans agreed to take a vote on don’t come close to bridging that gap. The only legitimate solution to close the gap, and to reach European-like levels of gun violence would be to follow in the footsteps of Australia and implement a national and mandatory gun buyback.
A study by Andrew Leigh and Christine Neill, two Australian economists, found that the buyback resulted in a 35 to 50 percent decrease in gun homicides and that buying back 3,500 guns per 100,000 people resulted in a 74 percent decline in gun suicides. That last statistic is especially important, given that nearly two out of three gun deaths in the US are suicides. The buyback resulted in an estimated reduction of Australia’s arsenal by an estimated 20 percent. None of the measures that are part of the Democrat’s plan to deal with gun violence propose anything as ambitious as the Australian buyback.
Without these measures, the United States will fall far short of reaching European levels of gun violence. Judging by our ongoing debate it seems as though we will fall short of even achieving what Sen. Murphy and the Democratic Party are trying to get through Congress: closing the tax loop hole and universal background checks, both of which are mild, common sense proposals.
Senate Republicans are not likely to support the Democratic proposal because it would grant authority to the Department of Justice to stop people on the terrorist watch list from purchasing a gun. Instead they prefer a bill that would delay the purchase of a gun from someone on the watch list for 72 hours while a review takes place. Additionally, election politics for Senate seats will make it even harder for Republicans to come to some sort of agreement on universal background checks. Just the other day, the Senate voted down four basic gun control measures, and none of proposals would come close to helping us reach gun violence levels to the point where we wouldn't continue to see mass shootings on such a large scale.
Ultimately, it seems that US gun culture and issues with gun violence will continue for quite some time until we begin to discuss honestly the legitimate measures that must be taken to reduce violence significantly. If we are honest about wanting to join much of the developed world in terms of gun violence, then we need to at least talk about what it takes to get there. Until then, we are destined to deal with the same painful routine of violence.
