This Monday, don't be surprised if all you see on public televisions and screens is a report on the Iowa caucus. The caucus on Monday is the first indicator for which candidate has significant party support for both sides of the political spectrum. While it can be adequately argued that the caucus is a poor event to predict voter trends in the nation, it can leave a lasting impact on each parties nominating committee. Last time around, underdog Rick Santorum managed to pull off a victory, but ultimately lost out to Mitt Romney. Santorum was seen as a bit radical, but he still massively appealed to people in the state of Iowa. As of now, polls indicate that businessman and real estate mogul Donald Trump will pull away easily with a huge victory come Monday. This is not much of a surprise. Trump leads polls nationwide and generally by a substantial margin. This clearly spells trouble for the Republican party.
The RNC was probably more than scared after Trump announced that he would consider a run as an Independent candidate if snuffed from receiving the Republican nomination. While he later retracted his statement, it left a mark. If Trump were to take his followers away from the Republicans, it would be detrimental to the party. Trump, for what it's worth, has managed to create a pool of passionate followers. This is an achievement that nobody can take away. It is worth mentioning that if the RNC were to put Trump up as its nominee, the Democrats would have a easier time increasing voter turnout and recruiting from on-the-fence voters. Simply put, Trump is too extreme to win. I've thought throughout the entire race (so far) that Rubio is the Republican party's best shot at putting a Republican back into the White House. He is young, passionate, and not as polarizing as Donald Trump. This caucus is necessary to show where the typical Republican voter stands. Do they want to test their luck with the extreme but popular candidate or push the man most likely to succeed if nominated? I left Cruz out of the discussion as I see him as quite radical and polarizing enough that his impact as a nominee would be more minimal than Trump's. If people in Iowa throw significant support for Trump, the RNC is going to have a tough time deciding what its agenda should be.
On the other side of the spectrum, we have a battle between self-proclaimed Socialist Bernie Sanders and political veteran Hillary Clinton. The candidates have been neck-and-neck in recent polls, and it's anybody's guess on how Monday will shape up for the Dems. The way in which Bernie eliminated a 40 point deficit into a tie is remarkable. His rather extreme views on the left has sparked something in his supporters- particularly millennials. This target audience was probably the blessing Bernie needed to remain competitive with Hillary. Millennials offer a greater social media presence, and promise a strong turnout come election day. The DNC has clearly demonstrated favoritism for Hillary. However, this comes as little surprise to the educated follower. Hillary is a seasoned veteran who's "time has come." She has experience and essentially has the support of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (the head of the DNC.) The fact that only six debates were sanctioned by the DNC is now looked at skeptically by the nation. The low number is seen as a way to pave the road for Hillary. She is the candidate who entertained an enormous lead in the Democratic field entering the first debates. Bernie has since picked up support and now poses a legitimate threat to defeat the ex-Secretary of State in Iowa. I've always seen Sanders as a candidate who offers unique and progressive ideas to millennials for the future as opposed to a legitimate contender for the White House. Honestly, I find it difficult to imagine Bernie winning the DNC nomination over Hillary in addition to defeating the nominee that the Republicans put up. Unless Sanders wins by a significant margin in Iowa, I see little importance in the caucus in regards to the Democratic party.
All in all, this is shaping up to be a fun ride.
