For those who are less politically inclined, Super Tuesday may sound like a Marvel movie marathon or a sweet weeknight deal at a bar. Super Tuesday is actually a pivotal event in the primary election season.
Super Tuesday refers to the Tuesday of each election season in which 13 states all hold primary elections. These 13 states are Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming, and American Samoa. Super Tuesday is also called the SEC primary, named for the Southeastern Conference of college athletics, to which many of the states involved in Super Tuesday belong.
There are a total of 1,460 delegates at stake in the Super Tuesday primaries, 865 for Democrats and 595 for Republicans, plus 150 superdelegates for the Democrats. Before March 15, both parties will allocate delegates to candidates proportionally, provided the candidate garners at least 20 percent support, instead of a winner-takes-all approach. A Republican candidate can potentially win enough delegates to secure half of the delegates needed for a nomination from the party, and a Democratic candidate can win a third of the delegates needed for a nomination.
In addition to emphasizing the electoral significance of the states involved, the number of states voting at the same time means that Super Tuesday shifts candidates’ campaigns from local to national, because candidates cannot have a physical presence in every state.
The Republican candidates involved in the Super Tuesday primaries are Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Ben Carson. Trump is currently leading in the polls in Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Vermont. Trump’s distinct personality and media presence are favorable for the kind of national campaign needed to reach as many Super Tuesday voters as possible. Rubio and Cruz are Trump’s main competitors, with Rubio having gained a large number of Jeb Bush’s supporters after his dropping out, and Cruz leading an aggressive campaign for conservatives, evangelicals, and Texas, his home state and a source of a large number of delegates. Kasich and Carson are dragging behind in the polls. If there are no significant increases in numbers for either of these candidates, the Republican party will pressure the candidates to drop out of the race to reallocate supporters to both Rubio and Cruz to attempt to narrow the gap between Trump and the rest of the Republican candidates.
The Democratic candidates involved are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Clinton leads in the polls in most states, and has the support of a large number of superdelegates, as well as the support of the large African American population in the Southern states. Her name is a household name and her ads run in the most states. Like Trump’s, this recognition will do well to bolster the support of voters when a local campaign cannot be executed. Sanders, in contrast, is still gaining national recognition among voters, and has only one major lead in the polls, in his home state of Vermont. Without the support of the superdelegates, who can vote for either candidate at the close of primary season, Sanders is at a serious disadvantage. Sanders will have to do much better than expected for the Democratic primary to last through the spring.
Super Tuesday will be held on March 1, 2016, with polls closing between 7 and 8PM ET. This event is a critical step in determining just who will be representing the political parties in the election of 2016.
