Fear, shock, awe. These are all words that describe the emotions that dominated the openly liberal-minded campus of Tulane University the day after Election Day. Donald Trump’s rise to power was a swift one, and it certainly was not expected. However, for a third-party voter like myself, it was only a slightly more unnerving result than the election of his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. I had voted for a candidate that I believed to be the most electable and principled choice for the leader of our nation, so the election of Donald Trump, while frightening, was only slightly more so than the alternative. Contrary to popular opinion, my vote cast for Gary Johnson did not swing the vote from Mrs. Clinton to our current president-elect. In the solid Republican state of Louisiana, my vote for Hillary Clinton would have done little to nothing to prevent the eventual result of the presidential election. In the hypothetical scenario that third parties did not exist, Clinton’s chances to win valuable swing states such as Pennsylvania and Florida are nearly non-existent.
In order to win Florida, Clinton would have needed to receive somewhere between 78-79 percent of the votes cast for Johnson with Trump receiving the other 21-22 percent of them. Even when given 100 percent of the votes cast for Jill Stein in the Sunshine State, Clinton still would have needed between 63-64 percent of Johnson’s votes. Clinton’s chances are a bit higher in the state of Pennsylvania in a world with no third parties, however, they are still highly improbable. In order to win the state, Clinton would have needed either 73-74 percent of the votes cast for Johnson, or she would have needed 100% of Stein’s supporters and 56-57 percent of Johnson supporters to cast their vote for her. Even at first glance, these numbers seem highly optimistic to the point of improbability.
According to an exit poll run by CBS to determine if Johnson or Stein had swung the election, approximately 25 percent of Johnson supporters and the same percentage of Stein supporters polled would have voted for Clinton. Around fifteen percent of Johnson supporters polled would have voted for Trump, while approximately 14 percent of Stein supporters would have done the same. The other 55 percent of Johnson supporters would not have voted at all, along with 61 percent of Stein's supporters. When given those percentages, (25 percent of Johnson and Stein to Clinton, and 15 percent and 14 percent respectively to Trump) Clinton still comes out behind in all red swing states except Michigan (Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa). That result, obviously, would be the same we have today: a Trump presidency. Even in a scenario where Clinton receives half of the voters that had said they would not have voted if faced with only the two major party candidates giving her 52.5 percent of Johnson’s support and Trump receives none of that percentage, she still would have lost the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania therefore handing the presidency to Trump.
While it is clear that the only scenarios involving third party candidates that would have given Clinton the presidency are nearly impossible and mathematically improbable, it is still a daily struggle on a campus full of people who claim to be open-minded, yet close themselves off so quickly when faced with a voice in opposition to theirs. As a libertarian, I share many core values with more liberal-minded people, just as I do with more conservative-minded individuals. However, it has been frightening to hear people speaking about third-party voters with such vitriol. “Why would you vote third-party?” “It’s your fault Trump is president” and other statements just like these are often heard when I mention that I cast my ballot for Gary Johnson. While it is proven that third-party voters did not swing the election, people still attack us as if we had cast our ballot for Donald Trump ourselves. A vote for Gary Johnson was and is a vote for just that, Gary Johnson. It was not a vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, but it was a vote for a principled, and uncorrupt candidate.
While I understand the fear in people’s voices when they speak of a Trump presidency, I do not and cannot understand the anger with which they speak of third-party voters. Third-party voters did not cost Hillary Clinton the election, she and the Democratic Party did. It is time for liberals and libertarians to come together in this time of turmoil in our nation and fight for our common ground. It is time for us to gather together to strive for the protection of the civil liberties that we are guaranteed in this country. It is time for us to stop fighting, and it is time for us to act.
