The Republican Party has been forced into a very divisive situation during this election cycle. With the rise of Donald Trump as the frontrunner in the primary elections, the GOP is in a tough spot. Either Donald Trump secures enough delegates to lock up his nomination before the convention or the delegates are split just enough between Trump and his rivals Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich that the nominee will be decided on the convention floor in a brokered convention. In a brokered convention, the pledged delegates that were allocated during primary voting and caucusing will be released and be able to send their delegates to any candidate of their choice. This sounds simple enough for the GOP if they intend on stopping Trump from being the party’s nominee, but there could be some unintended consequences.

A party’s unity is what makes a political party effective. Without unity, it is very difficult to encourage all party members to go out and vote for the nominee on Election Day. If the Republican Party nominates someone other than Trump at a brokered convention, Trump supporters will feel alienated from the party. This kind of decision invokes images of the proverbial “smoke-filled room” with party leaders going against the will of a large chunk of the party to nominate someone who they believe will carry on the party’s principles and give them the best chance at beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich acknowledged that if Trump goes into the convention with 45 percent or more of the delegates and the GOP were to nominate someone else, a “civil war” will break out within the party. Gingrich continued by saying if Trump wins Ohio and Florida, the race is over and the GOP may not have a choice but to nominate Trump.

So, why not just nominate Trump if that is what the party constituents want? I’ll skip over the obvious reasons that the GOP doesn’t want Trump as their nominee. But it all boils down to the ability to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. Donald Trump is the only Republican candidate that is losing to Hillary in general election polls according to Real Clear Politics. Clinton is currently beating Trump by a little over 3 points. In similar polls, she is losing by 5 points to Marco Rubio, 1.5 points to Ted Cruz and over 7 points to John Kasich. One of the explanations of this is because Trump does not win any crossover votes from Hillary. Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a great reputation as a trustworthy person and that sentiment extends to many in the Democratic Party. If the decision came down to Hillary or Trump, there would be very few Democrats who would vote for Trump over Hillary. If the general election matchup were to pit, say, John Kasich against Hillary, Kasich would win significantly more crossover votes because he is seen as someone who is relatively moderate and has the experience to be president. According to current polls, having any of the other three Republican candidates run against Hillary would put the party in a much better decision to secure the White House. But is stepping in and fracturing the party’s unity worth it to the GOP elites? I guess we will find out.