Trade Deadlines have become less exciting in Philly over the years. After seeing Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence brought into the fold in successive seasons, the next four years of selling the team’s best assets proved underwhelming at best and disheartening at worst. Situated 10 games below .500 and 14 games behind first place in the NL East, the Phillies are once again poised to be sellers at this year’s non-waiver Trade Deadline. Although they lack marquee names such as Cole Hamels or Chase Utley this year, it’s still likely the team will make at least one move before 4 o’clock Monday afternoon. Here’s a list of five players who could be on their way out, and six others who could find themselves in red pinstripes sometime down the road.
On The Block:
1. Jeremy Hellickson
Hellickson is arguably enjoying his best season since his AL Rookie of the Year campaign in 2011, during which he went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA (128 ERA+), a 1.153 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), and 3.8 WAR (wins above replacement). Despite a promising sophomore season, Hellickson soon regressed to what his peripheral stats suggested, a below-league-average starting pitcher— even over the course of his first two seasons, Hellickson posted a 4.52 Fielding Independent ERA, with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Between 2013 and 2015, Hellickson barely qualified as a replacement-level player.
2016, however, has proved a rebirth for Hellickson; his 7.7 K/9, 3.82 K/BB, and 1.122 WHIP all mark career-bests, while he’s accumulated 2.1 WAR over the course of his first 125 ⅔ innings pitched. Hellickson finds himself the best starter available in a trade market starved for pitching, and will almost certainly fetch the Phillies a team’s top-10 prospect, among others, before Monday’s trade deadline.
2. Carlos Ruiz
If the Phillies are to move Ruiz, it would be more about doing the veteran catcher a favor, than trying to acquire significant pieces in return. The 37-year-old backstop is two seasons removed from being a starter, although he still provides value through his veteran presence and game-calling ability. Not to mention, Ruiz still draws his fair share of walks, owning an on-base percentage 104 points higher than his batting average (.365 and .261, respectively). Despite his role as mentor to Cameron Rupp and the Phillies’ collection of young arms, should a contender come calling, it’s likely the Phillies would allow Chooch one last shot at a World Series ring.
3. Hector Neris
Neris is very much like Ken Giles: a young, talented reliever under team control at a low cost for the foreseeable future; therefore, to pry Neris away from the Phillies would require a package similar to the one the Phillies received for Giles.
Neris doesn’t have the closing experience— or the fastball— Giles had prior to being traded, so it’s doubtful the Phillies would receive a player of Vince Velasquez’s caliber in return; yet, Neris should still fetch a top prospect, along with two or three other players, from a team desperate for bullpen help— back-end of the bullpen arms don’t come cheap on the trade market or free agency.
4. Vincent Velasquez
It would take a king’s ransom for the Phillies to trade Velasquez, whom they acquired just last offseason in the deal that sent closer Ken Giles to Houston. The 23-year-old starting pitcher is in the midst of his first full season, and has quickly become a fan favorite. Owner of an 8-2 record, Velasquez has a 3.34 ERA (122 ERA+) and a strikeout rate of over 10 batters per nine innings. And with 2.2 WAR, only Odubel Herrera and Jerad Eickhoff have been more valuable to the Phillies this season. Scouts have Velasquez pegged as a number two starter, and, should he improve his command, he has the potential to become an ace.
So why would the Phillies trade Velasquez? For one, he’s already surrounded by injury concerns; flamethrowers don’t often have long shelf-lives and Velasquez already hit the disabled list once earlier this season. He’s also been plagued by control issues and has struggled to get passed the sixth inning. Advanced metrics suggest that he’s only a two-pitch pitcher— only his four-seam and two-seam fastballs measure as above average pitches— and this coupled with his durability issues could result in a move to the bullpen in the future— a move which would significantly reduce his value to the ballclub. It’s unlikely the Phillies would part with Velasquez, but should the Rangers— the club rumored to be most interested in the young right-hander— overwhelm the Phillies with the type of package they put together for Cole Hamels a year ago, it may be hard to say no.
5. Jeanmar Gomez
Coming into the season, few expected Jeanmar Gomez to be Ken Giles’ successor. Andrew Bailey and David Hernandez had prior closing experience; Hector Neris had a devastating splitter; Gomez, meanwhile, was a middle reliever who lacked the power arm typically associated with the closer’s role. Yet, while most members of the Phillies bullpen struggled when given a crack at the closer’s job, Gomez took the mound with a surprising poise. Despite averaging only 5.7 K/9, Gomez sports a 2.83 ERA (145 ERA+) to go along with his 27 saves, in large part due to his 52.1% ground-ball rate.
The Phillies are not in a rush to trade Gomez, as he has another year of team control remaining and has been one of the few consistent arms in their bullpen the past two seasons, incredibly important given the Phillies stockpile of young starters— few things are more frustrating to young starting pitchers than watching the bullpen blow a late lead. But successful closers are luxuries on rebuilding teams, and contenders are always in need of bullpen help for the stretch run. Gomez doesn’t have the same trade value as Hector Neris, but could fetch an interesting lottery ticket or two in return.
Potential Targets:
1. Nomar Mazara- Texas Rangers (MLB)
Should Vince Velasquez be traded, the Phillies would need to acquire a Major League-ready talent with All-Star potential as the centerpiece of any deal. Mazara, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball before his call-up, fits the bill. Through his first 94 Major League games, Mazara has posted a slash line of .279/.332/.413 with 12 home runs. It would be nice to see Mazara hit for more power, given his home ballpark is notoriously hitter-friendly, but considering his age— 21— size, and minor league track record, it seems that his raw power will translate to game power in time. A trade for Mazara, however, remains unlikely; the Rangers are hesitant to part with their young outfielder, and, even should they relent, Mazara alone would never be enough to pry Velasquez from the Phillies. Should the Rangers offer Mazara and other prospects, however, Matt Klentak should be listening.
2. Conner Greene- New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays’ Double-A Affiliate)
With Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion approaching free agency, the Blue Jays are in win-now mode. Roberto Osuna has been outstanding as their closer, but the Jays could use someone to solidify the 8th inning. Hector Neris seems the perfect fit, but should command a hefty price. Greene is Toronto’s 3rd-ranked prospect according to Baseball America and sports a 3.14 ERA in 106 innings pitched between the Blue Jay’s high-A and double-A affiliates this season. Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail have repeatedly stated the Phillies desire to stockpile young arms, and so Greene would be a solid headliner for a trade involving Neris.
3. Hunter Cole- Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants’ Double-A Affiliate)
It was reported earlier in the season that the Giants had interest in Jeanmar Gomez. While Gomez won’t bring back the type of return that Neris would, he should still fetch a solid prospect or two. Hunter Cole reached double-A in his first pro season in 2015, posting a .301/.358/.474 line to go along with his 9 home runs. His average has dipped down to .270 in his first full double-A campaign, but he continues to display solid power with 10 HRs and 22 doubles in 97 games thus far. Cole is expected to make his debut next year, which should be attractive to the Phillies, as they hope to accelerate their rebuild.
4. Adam Ravenelle- Erie Seawolves (Tigers’ Double-A Affiliate)
To say the Detroit Tigers need catching help is an understatement; the duo of James McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have combined for an awful .281 on-base percentage this season. Assuming the Tigers lose out on Jonathan Lucroy, they should find themselves interested in Carlos Ruiz— who, despite his age, still has a knack for getting on base. Again, the Phillies would not receive much in return for Ruiz— like the preceding Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley trades, dealing Ruiz would serve to give an aging veteran one last chance at a title— but Adam Ravenelle would be a decent get. Opponents are hitting only .219 against the right-hander this season, and he sports a career average of 9.8 K/9 over parts of three minor league seasons. Ravenelle’s achilles’ heel is his command— he’s averaged 5.0 BB/9 in the minors— but his 95 mph fastball and plus-slider combination give him the potential to be an effective back-end of the bullpen arm in the future, should he ever improve his control.
5. Yohander Mendez- Frisco RoughRiders (Rangers Double-A Affiliate)
The Rangers, as mentioned above, are in the market for starting pitching help, and the Phillies currently have a surplus of starting pitchers. Jeremy Hellickson— although a number three starter, at best— is currently the top pitcher on the trade block. Recent reports have indicated that the Phillies are currently asking for a top-5 prospect for Hellickson, a steep price, but one Texas might be willing to pay. Or, should Texas be willing to part with Mazara, then perhaps a Velasquez trade could still possibly happen. But for Velasquez to get traded, Texas would still have to include at least another top prospect— possibly Yohander Mendez.
Mendez, the Rangers’ number four prospect according to MLB.com, would be a great acquisition for the Phillies. The 6’5” left-handed starter has a fastball that touches 94 mph and plus-control, and is still just 21-years old; it’s still very possible he could add muscle to his frame. Across five minor league seasons, Mendez has posted a 2.65 ERA, with 8.9 K/9, a 1.121 WHIP, and a 3.45 K/BB ratio.
6. Mitch Keller- West Virginia Power (Pirates’ Single-A Affiliate)
Keller is the 6th-ranked prospect in a talented farm system, and the 89th-best prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. The Pirates have reportedly had scouts in attendance at Jeremy Hellickson’s recent starts, and, while they would loathe to part with Keller, would have to pay an inflated price to acquire Hellickson’s services, with the dearth of starting pitchers on the trade market this year. Keller is a power arm with solid secondary pitches and has racked up 154 strikeouts in 144 ⅔ minor league innings. Yet, Keller does not come without his concerns. The 2016 campaign is his first one above rookie ball; a forearm strain sidelined him for nearly all of the 2015 season. Should Keller stay healthy, he has all the tools necessary to be an above-average Major League starter.
