In the wake of the Orlando shooting, the politics seemed to come in before the facts did. Many people were left quickly trying to choose between competing narratives, each pointing fingers across an already deeply divided country. Was it America’s lax gun laws, was it ‘radical Islam,’ was it internalized homophobia, was it mental illness, was it clear-cut homophobia, was it all of the above or was it none of these? In the bloodbath that was this war of narratives, two sides rose out of it each with their own supporting evidence: Either Omar Mateen was a terrorist who had ties to ISIS, Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah (all at the same time,) or strong homophobia drove him. Each of these narratives comes with their fair share of evidence and their fair share of doubts, but which is the right one?

Let’s take the idea that he was a home-grown terrorist wannabe. Mateen, like other recent mass shooters, placed a 911 call to pledge alliance to ISIS, and he also mentioned the Tsarnaev brothers, the brothers responsible for the Boston Marathon bombing, as well as previously claiming he was a member of Hezbollah in 2013. This seems fine and well until you consider the intricate web of contradicting allegiances here. The Tsarnaev brothers were motivated by Al-Qaeda, which is separate from ISIS, and so was Hezbollah. Here’s where it becomes a problem; ISIS, Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah are all at war with each other. This paints a rather murky picture, and possibly makes an even more confusing statement, Mateen may not have known the difference between, or formally been, a part of these groups. To make this representation even more unstable, reports of his religiosity making claims that religion wasn’t even a large part of his life. This raises the question, did Mateen use Islam as a scapegoat instead of motivation?

Now, let’s consider the possibility that his motivation was a deep-set hatred for LGBTQ+ people. Let’s also not operate under the assumption that this was the sole motivation. It’s always possible it could have been any combination of the two. Mateen’s father told NBC News that religion did not motivate the attack, but that Mateen got ‘very angry’ when he saw two men kissing. Putting aside Mateen’s father’s plethora of problematic affiliations himself and possible ulterior motives, this brought to light the possibility that, this being an attack on a Queer club, was specifically a hate crime driven by homophobia. Cue Mateen’s hidden life; like clockwork news outlets started discovering little factoids and witnesses to support a substantial question of Mateen’s previously-assumed heterosexuality. After the attack, scores upon scores of witnesses made statements pointing out Mateen’s use of gay dating apps, attendance at gay clubs and various hookups. Even Mateen’s ex-wife (who divorced him because he was ‘abusive and unstable,’) stated “He might have been gay but chose to hide his true identity out of anger and shame,” and when asked if Mateen was gay, said she didn’t know. After all this, was it possible that Mateen struggled with his sexuality, and that’s what drove him to lash out against the community? Studies have shown a correlation between homophobia and an unawareness or denial of one’s homosexual tendencies. Also, increased homophobia is often linked with mental health issues. Additionally, it is not unusual for closeted homophobic people to lash out against open LGBTQ+ on account of repression of their sexuality. All this seems to create a rock solid case that Mateen was a homophobe, right? Cue the FBI’s statement that they have found no evidence that Mateen targeted Pulse because it was a queer club, but then again, this is the same FBI that cleared Mateen of any suspicion and removed him from their watch list.

Whether this proves, in the end, to be ammunition for the conservative right against Muslims (and President Obama,) or it becomes ammunition for the queer left against the conservative right, or even ammunition for gun control proponents against their gun rights adversaries, the deadliest mass shooting in American history will never be as clear as we’d like it to be.