Aside from the great Bo Jackson, many athletes over the years have had to choose one of the two or three sports that they have excelled in to focus on in hopes for having an opportunity at participating in the professional leagues. While baseball is often referred to as “America’s favorite pastime,” football has gradually taken over the top spot. This is evinced by a Bloomberg Politics inquiry in which 67% of people surveyed deemed football as America’s pastime versus just 28% for baseball. Even with the increased popularity of football, there is some concern over its future due to growing health concerns that go hand in hand with it. That combined with the absurd amount of money baseball players make, and the rapidly growing NBA salary cap, football could see its time as America’s favorite pastime come to pass in the eyes of athletes and fans alike.

Let’s talk numbers.

One such reason the NBA could be more appealing to young athletes deciding what sport to dedicate their life to is the guaranteed money. Guaranteed money is the portion of the contract that will be fully paid even if the player can no longer play due to being injured, getting cut, etc.

The difference between the NFL and NBA’s willingness to dole out guaranteed money is staggering. Consider the small forward Tobias Harris, who is a third scoring option and maybe second on a terrible team if you’re being generous, signed a four-year deal for 64 million dollars- fully guaranteed. Big Ben Roethlisberger, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, with all of his Super Bowl rings only gets $62 million guaranteed of his $87 million contract. This is important to note because it shows the NFL essentially saying through contracts, “Yeah, we will pay you this boatload of money, but the likelihood of you getting hurt is pretty high so we’re only going to pay you half of your contract and we’ll see how it goes from there.” You can be a third option in the NBA and make more guaranteed money, and probably money overall than being a quarterback who has won multiple Super Bowl rings. It is imperative to note that Harris’s contract came just as the NBA was negotiating a new network deal with ESPN and Turner Sports, and this is where it gets crazy.

The NBA finally signed that new deal which is worth $24 billion over nine years. Because of the new deal, owners have more money to put back into their teams and the pockets of their players. The salary cap for this past season was $70 million. This upcoming season it is going to jump another $24 million, totaling a salary cap of $94 million. The following season it is expected to again jump all the way to $107 million. The cap floor is also increasing this season to $84.6 million, meaning teams have to spend at least that much or have the difference be distributed evenly between all players on the team. This season only 10 NBA teams spent that much, meaning contract values are about to skyrocket since owners have to spend money.

 The way the collective bargaining agreement is structured, NBA players can earn more money the older they get as they progress through “tiers." Tier One is the youngest players who are able to sign contracts, and the maximum yearly salary they can make is $22 million. Tier Two players can make $26.4 million, and Tier Three players can make up to $30.8 million.

Seemingly in celebration of the new television deal, two young promising stars, Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis both signed new contract extensions, as their rookie deals were expiring. Lillard, 24, signed a five-year contract valued at $139 million. Davis also signed himself a hefty deal, fetching a 5-year deal valued at nearly $145 million with incentives included. He missed one of those incentives (making the all-NBA team) this season due to injury, and lost nearly $19 million because of it, but this is not uncommon in the NFL either. While there are more players on an NFL team to account for paying, the salary cap is also nearly $80 million higher than the current cap for the NBA. It appears that this surplus of cap space and spending money for the owners is hiking up the value of NBA players, and it’s difficult as an athlete torn between two sports to not consider the simple facts:

You can be one of the best at your position like Russell Wilson and get a four-year, $87 million deal (with only $60 million guaranteed) or Adrian Peterson making $15 million a year and hope that you don’t get plagued by concussions, neck injuries, torn ligaments and broken bones. Or, you can be the third scoring option (Tobias Harris) for a team and still make more guaranteed money than one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and more total money than the best running back that we have seen in some time, and that was pre-television deal. Imagine the deals for benchwarmers and middle tier players alike (who will more than likely get max contracts because teams have to spend at least the cap floor) will receive in the coming months.

Another thing the NBA has going for them is after one year of college basketball, athletes can declare for the draft unlike in football, and often they can offer impactful minutes right away on a basketball team whereas in football it may take them multiple years to learn a new system and get comfortable with the game. This increases earning potential, marketing exposure and allows them to get that big contract even sooner if they are motivated by the pursuit of wealth.

The closeness between basketball and football is especially apparent through stories like those of Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham who all played college basketball and also excelled at playing tight end in football. Many football players show off their athletic talent or recovery progress by dunking basketballs in Instagram videos and vines on twitter. Clearly the concussion issue has forced many, including young and promising NFL players like linebacker Chris Borland, to take a step back from the game of football for the sake of their health. There are so many opportunities to get critically injured playing football, that every time you step out onto the field could very well be your last, whether it’s just another Sunday afternoon game or an “easy” practice in organized team activities over the summer. There is just so much risk involved that doesn’t permeate basketball. Sure there can still be non-contact injuries like torn ACL’s and ruptured achilles tendons but these are just as likely in other sports like soccer, baseball or hockey. A much lesser plus than money and health is that athletes do not have to deal with the rigors of the seasons, instead playing at indoor arenas across the country in the warmth of the hardwood.

So let’s recap. Though the NFL is more popular than ever it would appear, many parents and athletes are beginning to ask physicians tough questions about the dangers of playing football leaving many to turn their backs on it. Many talented athletes may find themselves turning their focus on other sports, like basketball and baseball; where the rewards are just as great if not greater and the risk to one’s health and well-being is significantly less. As more definitive research comes out regarding concussions, people will be able to make more educated decisions and it is then that the fate of the future of football will be decided. I anticipate independent studies will find much more information than the NFL-funded studies did (more on that another time) and will help to sway athletes to pursue other sports that are safer, and perhaps even more lucrative. It may be the end of an era for baseball as America’s pastime. Now, it appears that football itself may very well be past it’s time.