The NCAA Tournament: Who Wins It All?
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The NCAA Tournament: Who Wins It All?

There are four prime candidates.

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The NCAA Tournament: Who Wins It All?

The NCAA Tournament is a marathon; a marathon that requires the champion to win six games total. So in order for a team to win it all, they need to have as few glaring flaws as possible. One major flaw will be exposed over the course of six games, and will cost a team at some point. Even if a team is seen as hands-down the best in the country, having issues from the free throw line for instance could be all it takes in one close game to cost them that title.

While match-ups are obviously crucial, so are a team's statistics. The most fundamentally sound teams statistically will have a clear-cut edge over the rest of the field. Teams like Maryland and Miami may be considered solid options for most people, but their poor created possession margins (turnover margin plus rebound margin) will come back to haunt them at some point. UNC will likely be many people's selection for champ, but Roy Williams' coaching decisions this season, along with the fact they cannot shoot threes, will lead to many busted brackets.

So for the purpose of this piece, let's take a look at the prime candidates, based on the stats, and not necessarily who they will have to face. Before jumping into the teams, let's just run through some of the key statistics in basketball.

Creating possessions is the first major thing for a college basketball team. More importantly, the created possession margin, which is how many more possessions a team creates compared to their opponents during any given game. This is a combination of a team's rebound margin and turnover margin. Both are of equal value, as they both result in a possession for a team. Thus, created possession margin is the stat to use as opposed to simply rebounds and turnovers. A solid created possession margin is five.

Next is scoring margin. If a team averages 80 points, and their opponents score 70, their scoring margin is 10. It does not matter how many points a team scores; it is the margin that is important. If a team is winning games by only a point on average, they are more likely to play close games which makes it more likely for them to fall in a game with just a few bad breaks. If a team typically wins by 10, they have a little more room for mistakes in any given game. 10 is an ideal scoring margin.

In order to win in college basketball, the most basic thing a team needs to do is put the ball in the basket and stop the other team from doing the same. So shooting percentages and defensive percentages are obviously going to be valuable. A team should shoot at least 46 percent from within the three point line and hold opponents to 42 percent or under. From behind the arc they should be looking at at least 36 percent and hold opponents under 33 percent.

Getting to the free throw line is also very important, as it is the final way to score points. Therefore, limiting fouls will limit the amount of free throws your opponent gets. A team should target 18 fouls or less on average in a game. And for when they are at the free throw line, shooting at least 70 percent is a very important stat, with 72 percent being the true goal. Anything under 70 could cause problems, as free throws become an integral part of a close game.

Finally, being efficient is valuable. If a team creates a ton of possessions, but is not very efficient with them, those become lost and worthless possessions. There is a stat known as point-per-shot, or PPS, that measures how many points a team earns for every time they throw up a shot. A good number here is .908.

So with all of that information to digest, let's take a peek at four teams I feel stack up very well in these statistics and thus have the potential to make a solid run at winning six games and the NCAA Championship.

Kansas

This year does not have a clear-cut team that is considered the best hands down, but Kansas would likely be most people's selection. And with good reason -- having watched Kansas numerous times this season, I can say they have the potential to win the whole thing. They manage to create about six possessions more than their opponents per game, with a mix of rebounding and turnovers. They score over 80 points per game, with a scoring margin of 14.

Kansas knows how to shoot the ball as well. They drain 49.2 percent of their field goal attempts, which is well above the average. More importantly, they are an extremely efficient team when shooting the three, shooting 42.9 percent of long distance shots. And they are no slouches when it comes to defense either. They hold opponents to a 39.7 field goal percentage and 33.2 on threes. So while they are only average at stopping the three, their ability to shoot it will offset that.

The Jayhawks foul just a tad too much, averaging 18.8 fouls a game. A team with such good offense should be able to offset whatever extra points a team may gain by a few extra free throws. When they get to the line, Kansas shoots 70 percent, which is right where they need to be.

They are very efficient with their possessions as well, with a PPS of .981, which means that, for every shot they take, they earn roughly a point every time. Then factor in that Kansas is coming from what I consider the best conference in the country this season, the Big 12, and so have faced many challenges already. They have beaten Oklahoma twice already and played against plenty of tournament-quality teams.

Michigan State

Michigan State knows how to rebound the ball. They overcome a poor turnover margin of -2.3 with a rebound margin of 11.9. That means on average they will have 12 more rebounds than their opponent in any given game. This means they have a created possession margin of 9.6, which is very impressive and helps offset their turnovers. So while they may give away some possessions in that regard, their ability to rebound is so strong that they will still have virtually 10 more possessions than their opponents on average. With that they also outscore opponents with a 16.9 scoring margin. They have the best scoring and rebound margins of any team in the tournament.

All of their scoring percentages are above average as well. The Spartans shoot the ball at a 48.8 percent clip, while limiting their opponents to 37.7 percent. From behind the arc they shoot it at 43.9 percent while limiting opponents to 30.6. All of these numbers are better than what is usually needed from a champ.


Since they know how to shoot the ball, it should come as no surprise that they can shoot free throws as well. From the charity stripe, the Spartans of Michigan State knock 'em down at 72.1 percent. They do have a flaw, and that comes in the form of fouling. They can get a little foul happy, averaging 19.3 fouls a game. Like Kansas, however, they should be able to offset this with solid offense. They just need to avoid extra fouls in the games where they simply aren't shooting the ball as well as normal, and keep pulling down the rebounds.

They are even more efficient than Kansas as well, averaging 1 PPS. There is no doubt the stats support a Sparty title run. The Spartans are poised for a solid run, and will be very dangerous in the tourney.

Purdue

Purdue is very similar to Michigan State when it comes to creating possessions. They have a negative turnover margin, but have an absolutely amazing rebound margin of 10.9. In total, their created possession margin is a solid 8.2. They outscore their opponents by a solid 13 points as well, leaving some room for a few mistakes with the turnovers.

Their shooting numbers are not going to blow you out of the water, but they are right where they need to be to contend. They shoot field goals at a 46.9 percent clip, which is a little above the average desired. As for threes, they shoot it at 36.8 percent, which is also a tad above the average. Their defense is more above average, with a field goal percentage defense at 39.1 percent while only allowing 31.7 percent from three.

Fouling is also right around the average, but once again they are on the right side of things, with 17.4 fouls per game. They are very good from the free throw line, with a 74.1 percent free throw percentage. That is a key stat that will come in handy in a close game when they need to hit big free throws.

Their PPS is also above average at .932. So, besides turnover margin, the Boilermakers are above average in virtually every category they need to be. That means they are a well-rounded team with no clear-cut weakness. That is the kind of team I want to find when filling out a bracket. They will not blow you out of the water with any stats that are heads-and-shoulders above the rest (except rebounding), but they have the balance to move deep in the bracket. As long as they do not let the turnovers become an issue they cannot offset with rebounding, they will be just fine.

Arizona

It seems we have a common theme. Arizona relies on rebounding heavily for their created possession margin. Yet another team with a negative turnover margin, but a rebound margin of 9.9. When you factor in that negative turnover margin, Arizona's created possessions margin is 8.9. Pretty darn solid, I would say. And as far as scoring margin, the Wildcats average a solid 13 points over their opponents.

Arizona can throw the ball in the basket, too. They shoot field goals in at 48.6 percent and threes at 37.7 percent. Their field goal defense is just a tad below the average, sitting at 41.4. They are better at defending against the long ball, though, limiting opposing teams to 31.6 percent from behind the arc.

Like Purdue, they keep the fouls just under 18, with 17.7 fouls per game. In addition, they can shoot it from the line, hitting 72.4 percent of their free throws. To cap off their profile that is very similar to Purdue, their PPS sits at .936.

So Arizona sits in a very similar situation as Purdue. Most of the stats are not eye-popping, but they are all solid. And for that reason they do not have any one true weakness besides the turnovers, which we know can be offset by the rebounding. Balance is key to going the distance in a tournament, as it limits the weaknesses an opponent can attack. The Wildcats put themselves in a position where they will not have many weaknesses to have attacked.

Conclusion

So there you have it -- four teams you should consider winning in your brackets. I personally feel that Kansas has been the best team all season and think they can win it all. But looking at the stats, I think Michigan State will be a tough out, and if they are on the opposite side of the bracket I see them going head to head with the Jayhawks for the title. Arizona is my top surprise team, as they will likely be around a five seed as opposed to a one or two like Kansas and the Spartans. Purdue is no slouch either, and is very capable of a nice run.

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This article has not been reviewed by Odyssey HQ and solely reflects the ideas and opinions of the creator.
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