It’s midway through preseason and that means it’s time for really outlandish and season-defining predictions based on very little evidence to be proclaimed and advertised as “bold predictions” by people who have spent way too much time studying seemingly inconsequential statistics.
I have five bold predictions, with some being more bold than others. Here we go!
(All statistics provided by NFL.com and pro-football-reference.com)
Robert Griffin III throws fewer interceptions than Kirk Cousins
You can read this a few different ways, one being that RGIII simply plays fewer games than Cousins and has fewer opportunities to throw interceptions; but in my prediction, I say both quarterbacks play all sixteen games and RGIII still throws fewer interceptions.
Cousins had one of the best seasons a Redskins quarterback has ever had. He led the league with completion percentage (69.8%), set the franchise record most passing yards in a season (4166), came in second for franchise season passing touchdowns all time (29), and came second in franchise history season passer rating since the expansion to a sixteen game season with a 101.6 rating, only a step behind a 102.4 rating posted in 2012 by… Robert Griffin III.
Griffin has had a year to rest that wonky knee and is in a system that is seemingly built around his skills like that almost mythical season in Washington, with some serious weapons around him. Cousins equally has great receivers, but if Matt Jones stays hurt or plays inconsistently as he did last year, he may be forced to throw the ball more than even he did last year (Cousins ranked 12th most pass attempts in 2015, with 543 attempts.)
Realistically, the difference probably won't be that high. I think Cousins will throw about fifteen interceptions while Griffin throws about twelve, but I think it's undeniable that Cousins will have more passing touchdowns than Griffin, just based on their playing styles.
Dak Prescott starts more games than Carson Wentz
Two NFC East rookie quarterbacks with very different expectations: Prescott is the answer eventually and Wentz might need to be the answer now. I think Prescott will show he can be the answer now in the regular season. Tony Romo is a good quarterback but he hasn’t played a full season since 2012, and having the best offensive line in the whole game can’t save a tricky collarbone. I don’t think Prescott plays so well that Dallas will have a quarterback controversy, but I think Prescott plays in some in two to three games, and probably starts once in that time.
On the other side, I think Doug Pederson is much more willing to put Chase Daniel in before he turns to Wentz, if Sam Bradford falters and is detrimental to his team midway through the season. Pederson and Daniel have history and Daniel has proven he can play in Pederson’s offense while they were both in Kansas City, and I have a feeling that Pederson will continue the run-first offense that Kansas City ran with whoever the quarterback is.
The AFC East will be decided in Week 16 and 17
As, well, everyone who cares and even some who don’t, the New England Patriots are without their franchise quarterback and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady for the first four weeks. He was almost suspended last season, and rattled off twelve total touchdowns (11 passing, 1 rushing) and 1,387 passing yards in the first four games that he was supposed to be suspended, starting the Patriots with a 4-0 record on their way to a 12-4 record in 2015. This time around, Brady will not be on the field during those first four games.
I like Jimmy Garoppolo, and I think he’ll do well, but there’s a level of confidence and leadership that having a quarterback like Brady on the field with you. If there is any team that can plug-and-play players at seemingly important positions, it’s the Patriots; but starting out the season: at Arizona, vs Miami, vs Houston, and vs Buffalo, is a difficult gauntlet for a first time starter. Those are four pretty great defenses, and with Arizona angry off a NFC Championship loss, Houston with a retooled offense, and Miami and Buffalo being division rivals, these games will not be easily won.
I see the Patriots going 2-2 through this stretch, which isn’t bad, but they’ll have to play exceptionally for the rest of the season to still be able to make the playoffs. I also think the Jets and the Bills will be much better than last year. In Week 16, New England plays the New York Jets at home, and then in Week 17 they play in Miami, a stadium they have not won in since 2012.
The Jets play the Patriots and the Jets, and the Bills play the Dolphins and then the Jets, so they all finish with divisional games. Conceivably, a 11-3 (or even 10-4) Patriots could be coming into Week 16 facing a 10-4 Jets, and then the same Jets (10-5 or 11-4) facing a 9-6 or 10-5 Bills in Week 17, meaning that these last few games could determine the tie breakers, and if Jimmy G loses either of the divisional games at the beginning of the season, we could see an end to the Patriots leading the AFC East.
The Tennessee Titans will lead the league in Team Rushing Yards, led by DeMarco Murray
In 2015, the Titans ranked 25th in total team rushing yards, with 1,485 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. I think DeMarco Murray, by himself, will rush for as many yards and touchdowns as the entire Titans team did last year.
I don’t think Murray will lead the league, Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley will do that; but between Murray, Derrick Henry, Marcus Mariota (and maybe a little Bishop Sankey), the Titans will leapfrog the Buffalo Bills (who have LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor), the Carolina Panthers (Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton), and the Seattle Seahawks (Thomas Rawls and Russell Wilson) for the most team rushing yards in the league in 2016.
I’ve been hot on the Titans since they drafted Mariota. I think he has the potential to be a really great quarterback, and the “exotic smashmouth” style of offense, a kind of turn back to classic football could be really effective and definitely fun to watch, if they play to the runners’ strengths, which was Murray’s biggest problem while he was in Philadelphia.
Jeff Fisher becomes Mr. 9-7 and Mr. Wildcard
With the offense in the hands of Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and Tavon Austin, Jeff Fisher beats his usual finish of 7-9 or 8-8, although barely, finishing with a 9-7 record, including five wins in the last six weeks of the season, defeating each of their division rivals in the last three weeks, and successfully clinch the 6th seeded wildcard spot.
Now, calm down, I don’t think that the Rams will actually win a playoff game--one step at a time, Jeff Fisher--but San Francisco won’t rebuild one year. Everyone has seen the Chip Kelly system. They’ll start off hot but by Week Five or Six, teams will have figured it all out. Seattle and Arizona will both also be in the playoffs, with one winning the division and the other claiming the fifth seeded wildcard spot. There’s a lot of really good NFC teams, so competition for this last spot will be highly contested, but as Brad Pitt as Achilles in “Troy” says: “Someone has to lose.”
So what do you think? Too bold? Not bold enough?
What do you think will happen this season?
Put your bold predictions in the comments!
Thanks for reading!
