If you listen to any of the talking heads on the news these days, you would assume that the fate of the world lies in the outcome of the United States Presidential Election of 2016. They said the same thing in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, etc. Not to make the Presidential Election lose its importance in the grand scheme of global politics, but the 2020, 2024, 2028, and all future elections will be significant, too. Right now, the field of candidates for President of the United States reminds me more of the North Georgia State Fair than a group of people vying to become the leader of the free(ish) world. As a fierce Independent, an equal opportunity offender, and someone who will vote for our President for the first time in 2016, I'll list my thoughts on this "dog & pony show."
Let's start on the Democratic side, because it won't take that long.
Bernie Sanders turned out to be the person we all thought he would become - the crazy grandpa yelling about everything. Martin O'Malley wanted so badly to seem presidential and mature, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton actually was presidential and mature in the first Democrat debate. Lincoln Chafee seemed like he knew what he wanted to say, but was a little intimated by the personality on stage (I'm talking about Anderson Cooper). Jim Webb, the former Senator from Virginia, was definitely on the wrong stage and someone should probably tell him that he's a Republican.
This writer assumes, prior to the likely entrance of Vice President Joe Biden into the race, that without any more serious scandals, Mrs. Clinton will become the nominee. BONUS: Her running mate? Check out Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro.
On to the Barnum & Bailey circus that is the current GOP field.
This is the only sentence that I will devote to Donald Trump. Jeb Bush, the establishment favorite prior to the beginning of the primary race, faces numerous struggles on the trail regarding his comments and his last name. He also must fight back against his protege Marco Rubio.
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a staunch conservative, is rising in the GOP field despite his rather dry and boring personality that, in a general election, will likely not make it easy to connect to voters.
Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina? Well, she is certainly bright and very capable of communicating her ideas and her thoughts. What she has to worry about is not so much her record as CEO, which is troubling at best, but also her opponent in the 2010 California Senate Race: Barbara Boxer. Senator Boxer, who defeated Fiorina in 2010, will do everything she can to stop Fiorina from becoming President.
Ted Cruz, the crazily articulate Senator from Texas, who supports a Constitutional religious freedom amendment, is popular among conservatives and will likely do well in Bible-Belt states (many of whom are holding their primaries on March 1, dubbed the "SEC Primary").
Rand Paul, son of former candidate Ron Paul, represents the libertarian wing of the Republican Party. Paul should probably stick to ophthalmology and the family business. The family business being NOT becoming President.
Marco Rubio, a Republican darling who delivered the response to the State of the Union several years ago, sees his largest fight in Jeb Bush. Rubio and Bush cannot occupy the same debate stage for long, but Rubio has a better case for selling himself as a conservative and as relatable to the American public.
Governor John Kasich is the incredibly popular Governor of Ohio, a crucial swing state for Republicans, and is largely responsible for balancing the federal budget back in the 90s.
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey will likely not win the nomination, but he still has time to get some policy points in that may make it onto the Republican platform.
Finally, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have little to no chance of winning the nomination, but this writer believes that isn't their intent. Graham will try and bring foreign policy to the forefront and Bobby Jindal probably just likes the spotlight.
Who will win the GOP nomination? It is hard to be sure. If Republicans were strategic about who they voted for, their best bet to combat a Clinton/Castro ticket would be to nominate a Kasich/Rubio or Rubio/Kasich ticket. This would probably deliver the crucial states of Florida and Ohio into the Republican column, making it significantly harder for Clinton and Castro to win. It is all about the math, after all. And 270 is the magic number.
Of course, this is all pure speculation from a 19-year-old college first-year. Check back in a year for my thoughts on the election that is just under 380 days away from now.
