It's not often you pick a team that finished dead last just three seasons ago to win the World Series.
Then again, it's not often that a team that was so recently that bad can turn around its fortunes so quickly.
The Houston Astros, after finishing with just 51 wins in 2013, increased that total each of the past two years en route to securing themselves a playoff spot this past season. And there's no reason to think they have any intention of simply being satisfied with that.
Last year, the Astros lost to the eventual champions in the wild card round of the playoffs. Now, they look to build upon that experience, and with one of the youngest rosters in baseball, they're a good bet to do it. One only has to look at last year's stats to believe it.
First of all, their pitching last year was already nearly as good as it can get. The team finished the year sixth in ERA, allowing only 3.57 earned runs per game. Furthermore, their young pitcher, Lance McCullers, had the best ERA among rookies who threw at least 100 innings, and he's sure to only get better as he develops. As a team, their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.66 backs up their success, showing that it was due more to skill than luck. The one thing the Astros were truly elite at, though, was limiting hard contact, as just 25.5 percent of batted balls allowed were hit hard according to FanGraphs, the best average in the majors.
The Astros proved their worth on the other side of the plate as well, finishing with the sixth most runs and the third most total bases in all of baseball. They also had the second highest slugging percentage and the fifth highest OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage), and that was with their two best hitters, George Springer and Carlos Correa, playing a combined 201 games. This year, with both expected to play a full season, the Astros look to challenge Toronto as the most feared lineup in baseball.
In addition to the expected improvement among players already on the roster, the Astros have been active in free agency, already trading for Ken Giles from the Phillies. Giles, for his career, boasts the second lowest ERA among qualified relief pitchers in history, as well as the 11th best strikeout percentage. He looks to take over the closer role in Houston, leaving them with an elite option to finish up games after their offense scores their multitude of runs.
Meanwhile, the Astros' main competition in the American League, the Kansas City Royals, lost their ace pitcher and starting second baseman in free agency, and so will enter next season weaker than they finished this one. While they're still the defending champions, it may be that they are no longer the best team.
The Astros are currently one of eight active franchises to have never won the World Series. Unless there's another drastic move this off season, I don't see that being the case much longer.
