In one word, how would one describe the year 2016? Simply -- anxious. This year, liberal ideas and institutions -- once the bedrock of shared prosperity -- are breaking down, and we are growing uncertain and frightened about these changes and what lies ahead.
At the dawn of 2016, a slowing Chinese economy created shockwaves across the world. As stocks tumbled, anticipation for the next great recession grew rampant. While markets managed to recover, the financial earthquake came to be an overture to a turbulent 2016.
Earlier this year, Americans speculated that a moderate would become the GOP nominee while Britons believed that they would remain in the European Union -- as indicated by opinion polls. In retrospect, however, relying on speculation and opinion polls have become a fool’s errand.
In Europe, anti-globalist and xenophobic far-right parties have gained traction in 2016. And in April, all eyes were on the Austrian presidential election between an independent and a radical far-right candidate. Austria and much of Europe had a sigh of relief as the moderate won by a knife-edge margin even after a recount. However, this election was a testament to the growing popularity of xenophobic, anti-establishment sentiment in Europe.
Similarly in the US, there is a contest between a highly controversial moderate and a demagogue for the White House. For Americans, this election cycle has been unwelcomed and has proved decisive. Both parties are seeing internal divisions between moderates and those calling for radical change to the status quo. America’s allies are also concerned about the candidates’ lack of a coherent foreign policy and vision about America’s role in the world, sparking disillusionment among world leaders at a time when a global strategy is most needed.
Across the pond, the British people have decided to leave the European Union. In this ‘Brexit’ referendum, an ideological battle was fought between those that envisioned more unification with European continent and those with an affinity for a nativist, domestic identity. Now Britain and the EU are left uncertain about the future of European unity, which not too long ago brought joy and excitement into the hearts of half a billion people.
Unfortunately, these destabilizing forces are not exclusive to Europe and the US. In Puerto Rico, the government is likely to default on its debt as their public services are about to be terminated. In Latin America, Brazil is losing its economic clout and Venezuela's economy teeters on collapse -- not to mention the Zika virus. In East Asia, tensions are brewing between China and its neighbors over maritime boundaries.
And the big one: terrorism. In 2016, a host of attacks on large population centers, such as airports and city centers, have questioned the strength of global security. But these acts of violence are indeed similar to anti-establishment sentiment ravaging Europe and North America. They serve to demobilize modernization and globalization and play into the vulnerability ethos.
2016 is unique because the drive towards a global liberal arrangement is being counterbalanced by nativism. We are seeing the consequences of political and economic decisions of the past two decades unravel. For example, Brexit and the rise of radical ideology are byproducts of free trade agreements of the 1990’s; instability in the Middle East stems from NATO’s military operations and nation building of the previous decade; BRIC economies have stalled because of political hubris and lack of economic liberalization after the great recession.
The best prescription for 2016 jitters are twofold. For those living in a country with an election this year, vote for the candidate with coherent policies and one that will promote the country's interests within a globalized world. For the rest, sit back, watch, and don’t speculate, what happens in these next six months will bring many surprises and will be telling of our modern world.
