The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 as a series of protests against the government of President Bashar Al-Assad. These protests quickly descended into war, with rebels taking up arms in order to oust the Assad regime. Five years later, the Syrian Civil War continues to be one of the most violent, deadly and destructive conflicts in the world as the region spins further and further into chaos, and the fighting only intensifies.

In many ways the conflict exists in four parts:

1. Political War: This is the conflict between President Bashar Al-Assad and the estimated 1,200 rebel groups trying to oust him.
2. Religious War: This is between the minority Shiites and the majority Sunnis. President Assad and his government represent the minority Alawites who are a smaller sect within the Shiite minority. This group, led by Assad himself, has been incredibly repressive toward the Sunni majority, fueling much of the animosity that now drives the conflict.
3. War on ISIS: ISIS arose out of a chaotic Syria, quickly conquering large swaths of land in both Syria and Iraq and attracting the attention of the international community. This has led to a global effort to eliminate ISIS led by NATO and the United States.
4. Proxy War: Each side has its own set of countries supporting them. This has essentially turned the conflict into a struggle between international powers. On Assad’s side, there is Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union vied for control and influence among Middle-Eastern countries, with Syria falling to the Soviets and much of the rest of the Middle East aligning themselves with the U.S. Now, because of a need to strengthen his domestic popularity, Russian President Vladimir Putin feels the need to protect the government of Assad. This has led to a great deal of tension between Russia and the West as the United States and NATO support the rebels, citing Assad’s multitude of human rights abuses as justification for removal from office while Russia continues to strengthen the Assad regime with weapons and airstrikes. Neither side is willing to commit significant ground forces to their efforts seeing as how there is little benefit to all out intervention, but there is the risk of World War III and the certainty of nation building in a Post-Assad Syria. To break it down simply:

Assad:

1. Russia

2. Iran

3. Hezbollah

Rebels:

1. The United States and NATO

2. Turkey

3. The gulf states

The Future of Syria

This conflict is endlessly complex. If the United States and NATO were to intervene to remove Assad from power the way they did with Gaddafi in Libya, they would be faced with several long-term problems. First of all, removing Assad would necessitate that the international community remain in Syria after Assad is removed in order to monitor the transition to democratic governance. If the international community were to intervene and then immediately leave Syria, the country would likely follow the same path as Libya, descending into chaos and continued Civil War.

Yet democratic governance presents even more of a problem because of the religious divisions that exist within the country. It is likely that after Assad is removed, the Sunni majority that is now fighting to remove him from power would seek retribution for more than a half century of oppression and discrimination. If Sunnis were to gain power in a democratic Syria, there would be a significant risk that the more extremist factions would take control and persecute the minority Alawites, potentially leading to genocide. This means that if Assad is removed from power, the international community must stay and ensure that the Syrian government can work for everyone. Yet this is unlikely. Most countries whose responsibility it would be to monitor this transition and build the institutions necessary for a democratic transition are unlikely to be dedicated to this cause. For many of these countries, the United States especially, the public support is simply not there for another long bout of extended nation building that could take several years and require an overwhelming ground presence just to keep the peace.

On top of this, the Russian problem looms large in the background as Putin, Iran and Hezbollah pour money and recourses into the Assad regime while blocking any type of comprehensive international action. As discussed earlier, Russia has a vested interest in protecting and supporting the Assad regime, meaning that any action taken against Assad will be strongly opposed by Russia. Complicating this is the permanent Russian position on the UN Security Council, which has veto power over any type of unilateral UN action against Assad. This has strained an already tense and fragile relationship between the West and Russia as international negotiations for peace continue to break down over and over with each side blaming the other for this failure. Any action to end the civil war must in many ways go through Russia, which of course has the potential for a disastrous and destructive end.

But the need for a solution is still there. The Syrian conflict is one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent history, with more than 400,000 Syrians killed,13.5 million forced from their homes and 6.5 million people driven from Syria. Only 30% of the population has access to clean drinking water, 50% of school age children are not receiving education and disease rates have skyrocketed. The Syrian people are in desperate need of help, and we should not turn a blind eye to the needs of these people. Though there may not be a feasible political solution in sight, we can still help those in need, those whose lives have been destroyed by this conflict. Below I have linked several sources that are trying to help Syrians who have been affected by this conflict and who desperately need our help.

1. Unicef

2. Doctors without Borders

3. IRC